A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The Euro is going to blink first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Compare and contrast...though it may be partly a speed issue. Euro ensembles the farthest south/east. http://raleighwx.ame...f072850mbT.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 One of the more compelling battle of the guidance than I've seen in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro and its ensembles dancing to the beat of their own drum. I'd be pretty surprised if the surface low doesn't pass west of LAF...probably well west. Just don't see a Euro type track barring some significant change in the handling of the waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 One of the more compelling battle of the guidance than I've seen in a long time. For sure. The Euro has not blinked for several runs in a row. Will be interesting as this thing starts to come ashore if we have a massive southward correction, or if the Euro falls in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 What's funny is that if this was the GFS or the NAM being on its own, we'd all trash it without blinking. I guess the Euro's track record has earned it due respect...but hard not to go with the consensus right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Is this ensamble even further south than previous? I read talk of it tracking just near St Louis. Seems even further SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Would love to know what the individual Euro ensembles are doing... *cough* Harry, any help? *cough* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looks like the Euro waits longer to deepen the surface low, so the curve to the left is delayed by over 6hrs. This makes a big difference in how far NW/SE this thing ends up tracking. The timing of the vort interaction is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The Euro is going to blink first But how many times has Dr. No proven itself at least a bit more superior than the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Have seen this mentioned by a few...talks of the GFS phasing too quick causing the further NW solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 But how many times has Dr. No proven itself at least a bit more superior than the NAM? The euro has laid a few eggs over the past few years and it isn't only going up against the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 But how many times has Dr. No proven itself at least a bit more superior than the NAM? Euro over the NAM every day of the week for me, no contest. But the NAM has good support from the others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 But how many times has Dr. No proven itself at least a bit more superior than the NAM? It's not just the NAM though...it's like a 5 on 1 tag team against the Hulkster right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Look at the differences in vort phasing at 0600z Thu between the NAM and Euro. NAM looks further along in the evolution of the phasing. NAM EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It's not just the NAM though...it's like a 5 on 1 tag team against the Hulkster right now. But the Hulk always won. Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 DTX: DIGGING TROUGH APPROACHING CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOMORROW...AND BEGINNING TO TAP THE SUBTROPICAL JET...WITH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE THEN SURGING NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS (NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/NOGAPS) AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT (MINUS EURO)...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACK WEST NEAR/THROUGH CHICAGO AREA THURSDAY MORNING...COMFORTABLY WEST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HIGH TO OUR NORTH (ONTARIO) AND NO SNOW COVER IN PLACE...THINKING WARM AIR SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE MAKING INROADS INTO THE STATE AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMPS ON...AND THEN DUE SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE TROUGH AXIS ATTEMPT TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD AIR TO COME IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY...USHERED IN BY 50 KNOTS AT 925-850 MB...AND WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE CERTAINLY IN PLAY...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 500 MB LOW TRAVERSES THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO ANY ACCUMULATION NORTH OF I-69 WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS COLDEST SOLUTION...12Z EURO...WOULD ARGUE FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION...BUT LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS VERY TIGHT...AND WITH SOME LOW LEVEL EASTERLY COMPONENT OFF THE STILL RELATIVELY MILD LAKE HURON...FAVOR A TRANSITION TO COLD RAIN OR DIFFICULT TIME FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE WITH SURFACE DEW PTS CREEPING ABOVE 32 DEGREES. IT SHOULD STILL BE NOTED OUR LOCAL WRF-GLOBAL ALSO FAVORS A EURO TYPE TRACK/SOLUTION...AND THUS MIDLAND/BAY/SAGINAW COUNTIES WOULD BE THE COUNTIES TO WORRY ABOUT FOR SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. OBVIOUSLY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH UNTIL MAJORITY OF THE PACIFIC ENERGY COMES ONSHORE TOMORROW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Just my prediction: the low will pass within 25 miles of GYY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Is this ensamble even further south than previous? I read talk of it tracking just near St Louis. Seems even further SE... Not sure on that, but the link below does show the ECMWF ENS mean is indeed the farthest SE currenty. Compare and contrast...though it may be partly a speed issue. Euro ensembles the farthest south/east. http://raleighwx.ame...f072850mbT.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 But the Hulk always won. Always. I was thinking that myself.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 They nailed Sandy from the get go Euro and its ensembles dancing to the beat of their own drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 But the Hulk always won. Always. Ok, 5 on 1 when he's past his prime. Not to say we can't see a shift southeast, but just skeptical it will be to where the Euro is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The Euro isn't all on it's own. The Ukie is pretty close from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 The Euro isn't all on it's own. The Ukie is pretty close from what I can tell. Lack of additional time intervals on the Ukie makes it hard to do detailed comparison but the Ukie is defintely farther north at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Is this ensamble even further south than previous? I read talk of it tracking just near St Louis. Seems even further SE... It is definitely further SE than the 00z ensembles were. Allan Huffmans model page is good, but its in 24-hr increments, so you have to basically draw the line yourself for exact track. The 00z mean tracked it approximately over Detroit, and the 12z mean tracks it approximately a little south of Findlay, OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Which model tracked Sandy the best??? That's who I'm voting with...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Which model tracked Sandy the best??? That's who I'm voting with...... EURO narrowed down the correct track the soonest. I think the NAM will flinch on the 0z runs. Lol^ above pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 looks like the NAM is ready to sink first, and the GFS will go under next. Meanwhile hulk isnt bulging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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