cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'd sure like to see a bump SE on the gfs, but the euro models holding makes me feel good. This is a system where you don't want to nws be on the SE half of the heavy snow band being progged. Id feel a lot better if I were in cedar rapids and dubuque. We might do okay here though as this baby winds up. I 'm cautiously optimistic on this. Both the Euro and Ukie sure give us a good thumping after some rain early on. I think the smart way to go at this point is to take a blend of Euro/Ukie/GFS, which would still give us a few inches on the tail-end. In any case the QC should finally get the first accumulating snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Via wunderground maps, looks like the 12z Euro goes right over LAF. You are all welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Via wunderground maps, looks like the 12z Euro goes right over LAF. You are all welcome. Boy, color me surprised by that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Some of the heaviest, wettest snow/slush Bowme and I could ever want on the Euro; with 850 temps well below 0C, but surface temps between 0 and 2C most of the time, what percentage of that would probably fall as snow? I'm thinking maybe half, and it would be low ratio stuff at that. Slow it down or speed it up so more of it would fall overnight, not that time of day really matters on the second shortest day of the year. Put the NAM characteristics into a EURO track - now that would be awesome! I'm going to guess 3/4 will be snow for 5+ miles inland Probably 8:1 to start going to 10:1 towards mid afternoon. (for around Milwaukee) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Put the NAM characteristics into a EURO track - now that would be awesome! I'm going to guess 3/4 will be snow for 5+ miles inland Probably 8:1 to start going to 10:1 towards mid afternoon. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Not to be obsessed with the wind potential at this point but I went back and looked at some classic high wind makers and couldn't find many that had 925 mb winds of 60 kts in the CCB as the GFS is indicating for parts of the southern Lakes, which means a couple things: 1) the GFS could be a bit too extreme, 2) if it's not too extreme, then rather rare/unique impacts may be expected. Hopefully the offices will start hitting this threat more if it looks like the higher end solution may pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Boy, color me surprised by that! Enjoy your rain. It's the only rain you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Via wunderground maps, looks like the 12z Euro goes right over LAF. You are all welcome. Lol. STL first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Enjoy your rain. It's the only rain you got. Well at least it will help me stay true to my heritage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Enjoy your rain. It's the only rain you got. Today is awesome too. Cold rain and 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 A little surprised that LSE and MKE went with watches so soon (54+hrs out). It'll be interesting to see if OMA/DMX/DVN follow suit. Looking at the Euro a little closer, it would indicate the QC transitioning over to all snow by just before 12z Thu. The western and northern portion of the DVN area look like they stay all snow through the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The consistency of the EURO is definetly impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I will take my couple of inches of slop and 50+mph winds...better than nothing. BTW this was mentioned in the MKX morning afd. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAN SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8" IN THIS AREA BUT WITH 12+" PROBABILITIES RUNNING IN 30% RANGE. THEY ALSO HAVE 60-70% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS...SO BLOWING SNOW AND PERHAPS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD RESULT ESPECIALLY IF GEMNH AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. MADE SURE TO BEEF UP THE WIND GUSTS AND NOW HAVE GUSTS IN 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE ON THURSDAY. QEPV ON GFS SHOWS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW WITH THIS AND EVEN HAS BAND OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. STRONG MID LEVEL DEEPENING INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR NARROW BAND OF CONVECTIVE SNOWS THAT COULD AFFECT AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE GAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Couple of big dogs near the top with the CIPS analogs. 60 hour analog thumbnails for the MV: http://www.eas.slu.e...60&model=GFS212 72 hour analog thumbnails for the MV: http://www.eas.slu.e...72&model=GFS212 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I will take my couple of inches of slop and 50+mph winds...better than nothing. BTW this was mentioned in the MKX morning afd. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MEAN SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8" IN THIS AREA BUT WITH 12+" PROBABILITIES RUNNING IN 30% RANGE. THEY ALSO HAVE 60-70% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS...SO BLOWING SNOW AND PERHAPS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD RESULT ESPECIALLY IF GEMNH AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. MADE SURE TO BEEF UP THE WIND GUSTS AND NOW HAVE GUSTS IN 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE ON THURSDAY. QEPV ON GFS SHOWS STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSNOW WITH THIS AND EVEN HAS BAND OF NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. STRONG MID LEVEL DEEPENING INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR NARROW BAND OF CONVECTIVE SNOWS THAT COULD AFFECT AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE GAME. Maybe we can crank out some lake enhancement thunder snow at the end! That would be epic! haha My forecast has a mix turning over to all snow early afternoon. Edit" It will be like a DQ Concrete mixer closer to the lake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 for our borderline +SN zone posters...i don't think the NAM will be coming any further NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Maybe we can crank out some lake enhancement thunder snow at the end! That would be epic! haha My forecast has a mix turning over to all snow early afternoon. Edit" It will be like a DQ Concrete mixer closer to the lake! winds are N to NW by the time we cool enough at 850 anyways...the lake really won't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Just looked over the 3 hour maps for the 12z NAM and GFS, and they're pretty close to identical in track. 12z GGEM is about the same until it diverts once it reaches Lake Michigan, where it takes a more easterly track than the other two. The Euro of course, is on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 No noticeable differences so far on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 No noticeable differences so far on the 18z NAM yep it's holding firm on the northwest side of the envelope...maybe a bit more agressive with WAA out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 LSE ground zero on 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 NAM seems like it takes its sweet time coming up from MO. Looked a bit further south and east as it was moving from the top of TX to NE Okla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Maybe a tiny bit northwest with the 18z NAM. WAA overwhelming. Liquid to GRB, TVC...approaching the eastern U.P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 NAM and GFS still on the same page. EURO ensembles will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 10-16" from Des Moines through La Crosse to Wausau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 EURO ensembles will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 NAM and GFS still on the same page. EURO ensembles will be interesting. Ensembles stay south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro and its ensembles dancing to the beat of their own drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro and its ensembles dancing to the beat of their own drum. This be another in a long line of EURO big victories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Still have the euro and its ensembles vs everyone else. If the euro is close to reality I will say it has been remarkably consistent the whole tracking period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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