JoMo Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z ECM running yet? Someone who has it wanna do play by play? Nah, you still have another hour and 15 min wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Haha, you made me look! What's he thinking!? Particularly across the lake from here! Maybe he is riding the Euro for all its worth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GGEM right overtop Chicago at 72 hours, 996-ish. So a touch east of the 12z GFS, but really fairly close. Another middle of the road solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Skilling has us with rain changing to snow, and ending by evening, with blustery N winds. Then has us sunny and seasonal for the most part through the 26th. A bit of change from yesterday when we were at 38 and rain for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So what's Baro's hunch think right now? Hope all is well up in AK btw Thanks bud, things are going great. The trip home to MN is going to be awesome though, need a break. I think the key to look at here is the northern wave and what it does H85-H7, if it keeps most of the energy north of the border this system could cut up, if the energy drops south it will not cut up. Just my amateur opinion . My hunch is suppression is likely, but that is not necessarily bad. Northern stream influence here may shunt further cyclogenetic growth, but this is going to be hauling the most impressive deformation frontogenesis band of the year, and like a legit CO low should, will have a moisture fetch off the GOM. The models that matter all indicate the sharp trop undulation bisecting the frontal zone, which should keep the main frontal band well into the cold air. SC and central WI into E IA are a good place to be. Either way this is going to be a gorgeous winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Twister data's wind map version at 84 hours. 925mb map below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Maybe he is riding the Euro for all its worth? Sure, but I think even the Euro strengthened the storm earlier to allow for heavier snow in Nebraska and Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Amazing CCB associated with this bombing cyclone. Haven't seen an 850 map in the MW like this since the great GHD beast.... 60-70kts?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Maybe he is riding the Euro for all its worth? That must be it! I was just thinking, he's including the lake effect snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 That must be it! I was just thinking, he's including the lake effect snow as well. it's obviously including LE which will be prolific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 This is what you see in legit CO lows, a well defined theta-e/moisture axis (in this case relatively deep as well) into the WCB and feeding into the front. The energy here is a combo latent/baroclinic, and you can bet there is going to be some theta-e folding and convective banding along the front. "Ripping" heavy snow comes to mind. We did not see thus ALL last winter through this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 This is what you see in legit CO lows, a well defined theta-e/moisture axis (in this case relatively deep as well) into the WCB and feeding into the front. The energy here is a combo latent/baroclinic, and you can bet there is going to be some theta-e folding and convective banding along the front. "Ripping" heavy snow comes to mind. We did not see thus ALL last winter through this part of the country. Get that to shift south like the Euro and I'll be happy. Honestly I don't know what track to favor right now. Probably something near Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Get that to shift south like the Euro and I'll be happy. Honestly I don't know what track to favor right now. Probably something near Chicago. Yep, I favor that too. A couple inches along with near blizzard/blizzard conditions on the backside possible for Milwaukee and Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Interesting snippit from IWX refrence the LE chances from this morning: LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES VERY HIGH IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND NORTHWEST FETCH. LOCAL CASE STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT 850MB WINDS OVER 45 KNOTS WITH A NW FETCH CAN ACTUALLY INHIBIT GOOD SNOW BANDS AND ALSO LEAD TO FRACTURED DENDRITES AND SMALLER FLAKES...LOWERING POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING 925MB WINDS IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AND 850MB WINDS EXCEEDING 60 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Interesting snippit from IWX refrence the LE chances from this morning: LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES VERY HIGH IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND NORTHWEST FETCH. LOCAL CASE STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT 850MB WINDS OVER 45 KNOTS WITH A NW FETCH CAN ACTUALLY INHIBIT GOOD SNOW BANDS AND ALSO LEAD TO FRACTURED DENDRITES AND SMALLER FLAKES...LOWERING POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTING 925MB WINDS IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AND 850MB WINDS EXCEEDING 60 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD. Had that here during the GHD. 4 hrs of ripping pixxy dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 FWIW...HPC going 50/50 GFS ECMWF... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1151 AM EST MON DEC 17 2012 VALID DEC 17/1200 UTC THRU DEC 21/0000 UTC 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ...SYSTEM DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUBSEQUENT PLAINS/MIDWEST CYCLONE... PREFERENCE: 50/50 BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR SURFACE LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY A STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH DAY 2...AND BEGIN TO SPIN UP A SIGNIFICANT MID LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES ON DAY 3. THE 12Z NAM IS PART OF STRONGLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND UKMET. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS...HOWEVER...ALONG WITH SEVERAL ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...INDICATE A SURFACE LOW TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON DAY 3. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM/CLOSE CONTOURS ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THEY DO REACH A SIMILAR INTENSITY TO THE NCEP MODELS BY DAY 4. THE CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW IN THE ECMWF IS TOO FAR SOUTH RELATIVE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING...AND THAT THE GFS HAS A TENDENCY TO BE TOO FAST AND HAS ALSO TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...A LOW TRACK HALFWAY BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY APPEARS REASONABLE...RESULTING IN A FORECAST LOW TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY DY3 TO SAINT LOUIS BY 12Z...AND PASSING JUST EAST OF CHICAGO BY 18Z THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY...SO THIS TRACK MAY WAVER LEFT OR RIGHT SLIGHTLY IN THE COMING DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Get that to shift south like the Euro and I'll be happy. Honestly I don't know what track to favor right now. Probably something near Chicago. Will sure be interesting if the euro stands pat with the southern track at next run. It has been fairly consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Get that to shift south like the Euro and I'll be happy. Honestly I don't know what track to favor right now. Probably something near Chicago. Sometimes it is easy to go all out Euro, but with a system like this, the exact depth/position of the ejecting PV anomaly leeside of the Rockies is absolutely key to eventual track given the advection processes through the plains which will setup the position/orientation of the baroclinic zone as the low tracks NE. No model will have those subsynoptic PV anomaly details hammered out at this stage, but something slightly NW of the ECMWF (given what I see) seems more likely than the ECMWF verbatim (or something farther SE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GGEM passing low over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'll be pulling out Thursday morning.... Not sure where to yet... Newberry or Marquette? Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GFS mean is over NE illinois, OP GFS is over NE Illinois, GGEM is over NE illinois...pretty safe bet the low will be passing near Chicago. Heavy snows for EC Iowa into BFE Wisconsin. Potential quick 1-3" hitter for areas just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'll be pulling out Thursday morning.... Not sure where to yet... Newberry or Marquette? Jon I wouldn't quite ignore the backside enhancement into N lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 GFS mean is over NE illinois, OP GFS is over NE Illinois, GGEM is over NE illinois...pretty safe bet the low will be passing near Chicago. Heavy snows for EC Iowa into BFE Wisconsin. Potential quick 1-3" hitter for areas just south. Barring a southward shift, biggest story for Chicagoland may end up being the wind. GFS may be a bit overdone but if not, it's gonna get real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GGEM has a pretty weenie solution for those that are waiting for wrap around. Slows the thing down as it passes east and strengthens. Always leery of those scenarios, but who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 MKX has issued WSWatches. WIZ046-047-051-056>058-062-063-067-180130- /O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0005.121220T0000Z-121221T0000Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-IOWA-DANE- LAFAYETTE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC... BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...DODGEVILLE... MADISON...DARLINGTON 1118 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...SNOW BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DIMINISHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 11 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WOULD CAUSE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SOME THUNDER SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WOULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH POTENTIAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 You know something that hasn't happened in a while across this region must be happening if Stormtracker is perusing the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GGEM has a pretty weenie solution for those that are waiting for wrap around. Slows the thing down as it passes east and strengthens. Always leery of those scenarios, but who knows... For part of Indiana, do you believe? At least a dusting or so for a white Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 MKX has issued WSWatches. WIZ046-047-051-056>058-062-063-067-180130- /O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0005.121220T0000Z-121221T0000Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-IOWA-DANE- LAFAYETTE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC... BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM...DODGEVILLE... MADISON...DARLINGTON 1118 AM CST MON DEC 17 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...SNOW BEGINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DIMINISHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 11 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. * WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW WOULD CAUSE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SOME THUNDER SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WOULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH POTENTIAL WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. That looks highly underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Barring a southward shift, biggest story for Chicagoland may end up being the wind. GFS may be a bit overdone but if not, it's gonna get real. top gust forecast contest ORD - 49 MKE- 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z Ukie at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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