DAFF Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I've got this feeling Detroit area will have rain to start, cold front passing, then dry slotted with hint of snow to finish. On the cold side of the strom winter will be in full swing with this one. At least there is something to watch in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 pretty good signal on those ensemble members... getting stronger each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 pretty good signal on those ensemble members... getting stronger each run Stronger is good!Please no NW trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Stronger is good!Please no NW trend... they go hand in hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Impressive cold to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Impressive cold conveyor in the cold sector behind the strengthening storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Need the low ahead of it to bring down some colder air which could help for a further SE track. Doesn't look good as a the trend with stronger storms is usually more NW than SE. ^This is key! BTW, anyone else seeing Model Data crossed out on the wundermap page? Yeah I noticed some issues. ...Images seem to be coming through better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 they go hand in hand not always. 0z was stronger and further southeast of the 12z run. Will depend on where the wave ejects after crossing the rockies. Friend of mine thinks the dump of cold air into the plains is underdone and wouldn't be shocked if the sfc low came out 100 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 not always. 0z was stronger and further southeast of the 12z run. Will depend on where the wave ejects after crossing the rockies. Friend of mine thinks the dump of cold air into the plains is underdone and wouldn't be shocked if the sfc low came out 100 miles further south. Nothing is set in stone but the wave ahead looks pretty anemic to me and given the WAA being shown...i'd take another 50-100 miles north onto any solution. Chicago needs a pretty large SE shift to get back in this game....plenty of time but i'm not all that confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Chicago would get some pretty decent snow around 129 hours and after for a time. But yeah at least another 50 miles south to give Chicago high end amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 St Louis looks to get screwed like usual. How does the severe wx potential look ..looks like if the ingredients are there St Louis could be in line for that. Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 St Louis looks to get screwed like usual. How does the severe wx potential look ..looks like if the ingredients are there St Louis could be in line for that. Yay IWX was talking about a forced convective line if this general scenario plays out. As far as severe, I doubt anything widespread/significant at least this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Actually the 12z Euro had it down to 984mb between MDW and IKK at 126hr then moves it to GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 impressive WAA being shown....this has the look of a classic northwest trender You certainly could be right, but I wonder how far northwest it would be able to trend, because the system will be running into a strong west based block: The December 11-12 2010 storm that gave the Minneapolis area a crippling snowstorm tracked right over northern IL and had a similarly positioned Arctic high pressure building in behind it: The NAO was negative in this case, but positioned much farther east over southern Greenland: It'll be very interesting to track this system over the next few days. Of course we're still 132 hours out, so a lot can and will likely change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The amount of deepening is very impressive on the Euro, goes from 132dm to 120dm at 850mb in 12hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Hoping for the best for everyone in this forum, but by the sound of it, Toronto will get mainly rain out of this, a real bummber just before Christmas. At least I spend Christmas in Kitchener, Ontario where there's a greater chance of a white Christmas due to lake effect. Poorl uck when you consider that there are three systems this week and that all three of them will give rain to Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 That west based block probably helps explain why the GGEM track hops over to the east across IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 You certainly could be right, but I wonder how far northwest it would be able to trend, because the system will be running into a strong west based block: Potentially impressive severe weather look for the Deep South, aside from timing, the H5 jet looks significantly potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 You certainly could be right, but I wonder how far northwest it would be able to trend, because the system will be running into a strong west based block: The December 11-12 2010 storm that gave the Minneapolis area a crippling snowstorm tracked right over northern IL and had a similarly positioned Arctic high pressure building in behind it: The NAO was negative in this case, but positioned much farther east over southern Greenland: It'll be very interesting to track this system over the next few days. Of course we're still 132 hours out, so a lot can and will likely change. That strong west based block is really the only hope for those in much of Indiana and Ohio. I still think even Chicago stays fairly rainy, but at least there's a strong storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 That strong west based block is really the only hope for those in much of Indiana and Ohio. I still think even Chicago stays fairly rainy, but at least there's a strong storm to track. CLE was talking about a track through OH with the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I really don't know what to think of this potential significant winter storm. I think it will track near Chicago, just a very early guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 That west based block probably helps explain why the GGEM track hops over to the east across IN. Could be. The low will hit the wall at some point and should force redevelopment near the coast. The question is where these things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 p deep for mean @ 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 p deep for mean @ 120 Looks like around the same location/a bit further south than the OP actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I like DLL location for this storm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I like DLL location for this storm..... I like our QC posters a lot more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I like our QC posters a lot more I have optimism. I like mby and north/west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I like our QC posters a lot more Yep them too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 DVN WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ALL EYES TURN TO THIS PERIOD AND HOW ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE FRESHLY ARRIVED WESTERN CONUS L/W TROF OR BULK OF THE TROF ITSELF PUSHES ACRS THE MID CONUS WED THROUGH FRI FOR A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST. THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS VARYING QUIET A BIT AND WILL PROBABLY TAKE 1-3 DAYS MORE OF FURTHER MODEL RUNS TO GET MORE CONFIDENCE WHERE LIKELY LLVL LOW OR MID LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS/TRACK. THE 12Z GFS IS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND WEST AND SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE WINTER STORM/ACCUM SNOW TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH OF THE LOCAL CWA WED INTO THU. IT DOES HAVE AN INTENSIFYING LLVL COLD CONVEYOR WRAPPING ACRS THE AREA FOR A SWITCH OVER TO PRODUCE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING...BUT MORE OF A STORY WOULD BE INTENSE CYCLONIC FLOW INDUCING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 WITH GUSTS WELL OVER 40 MPH ON THU. THE CANADIAN GEM SEEMS TO BE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT NEG AO/NAO TRENDS WITH IT/S DEEP PHASING SCENARIO...SO DEEP OF A TROF PHASE THAT THE SFC SYSTEM AND IT/S DEF ZONE PRECIP ROLLS OUT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ACRS THE OH RVR VALLEY. THEN THERE IS THE OMINOUS ECMWF WHICH FOR TWO RUNS IN A ROW MAKE A DIRECT HIT/TAKES THE GOLDEN PATH TO IMPACT THE DVN CWA DIRECTLY WITH A MAJOR WINTER STORM AND PROBABLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW BY 00Z FRI WITH 25 TO 35 MPH WINDS AND HIGHER GUSTS. FOR NOW WILL GO LIKELY POPS WED NIGHT WITH A MIX IN THE SOUTHEAST 2/3S AND ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST 1/3...AND ALL SNOW THU WITH HIGH CHC POPS. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW TO EXIT BY THU EVENING. MKX THIS PERIOD FEATURES THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT THERE IS HUGE MODEL VARIABILITY AT THIS POINT AND THIS IS CHALLENGING OUR CONFIDENCE. WE HAVE 4 LONG RANGE MODELS TO LOOK AT FOR A PERIOD THAT FAR OUT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY WAY OUT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC...AROUND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND HAS A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE EVOLVING INTO SOMETHING LIKE A SNOW STORM FOR OUR AREA. ANYWAY...ONE OF THE MODELS /DGEX/ TAKES THE LOW FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THAT/S A DRIER AND WARM SOLUTION FOR US. THE NEXT MODEL...GFS...IS FARTHER SOUTH...TRACKING FROM NE MO TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS PUTS OUR AREA IN A WETTER MORE WINTRY MIX SCENARIO WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND MOSTLY LIKELY NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF MODEL...OFTEN THE MOST RELIABLE...TAKES THE TRACK FROM ECNTRL MO TO SOUTH OF CHICAGO INTO LOWER MI. THIS IS A CLASSIC TRACK FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A MIX ALONG THE LAKE. AND FINALLY...THE GEM MODEL...CANADIAN...IS REALLY FAR SOUTH...TRACKING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO EASTERN KY. THIS IS ESSENTIALLY A DRY AND COLD SOLUTION FOR US. AT THIS POINT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH A HEAVIER WEIGHTING TOWARD THE ECMWF...SEEMS THE BEST APPROACH. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...SO LITTLE CHANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Similar to origin, track, and potential strength as groundhog storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.