A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GFS going to come in maybe a hair quicker/warmer but no major differences. Cone is narrowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 When has hpc not been playing catch up tho? the other way around... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 LOT seems to like the track into SW MI by the sounds of it from there SWS early this morning. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=lot&wwa=special weather statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The models show all the energy finally over California by Tuesday evening's 00z runs. Wow, that's a fast mover. Halfway across the country in one day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GFS another baby step stronger/NW/warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GFS a bit farther to the northwest with everything. When will the Euro abandon ship? Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GFS a bit farther to the northwest with everything. When will the Euro abandon ship? Geez. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GFS a bit farther to the northwest with everything. When will the Euro abandon ship? Geez. To be fair, looking at just the OP GFS run does not say much anyway. If the ensemble mean shifts NW, along with the Euro Ensemble mean, that would tell me more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 What a run for places in Iowa though. Just a whooping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 frankthetank is going to get burried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm ground zero then if the GFS brings it NW>.. This thing has rain storm/congrats MSP written all over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Man, Sioux City is even getting nailed by the GFS now. This isn't even close to nailing my area anymore. I sure as heck didn't expect such a big nw/warm jump from two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Still time to iron out specifics but if the models stay consistent with the idea of the wave becoming negatively tilted as it approaches the Mississippi River, then I think the farther west solutions (Chicago or west for the surface low) become more likely unless it's at a latitude much farther south than currently shown. Been burned before with setups like this where the low hooks farther left than what you'd think. Besides that, there's always the concern about WAA being underdone even if the track is modeled correctly so I'd be very nervous wherever the southeast edge of the snow band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 To be fair, looking at just the OP GFS run does not say much anyway. If the ensemble mean shifts NW, along with the Euro Ensemble mean, that would tell me more. We're close enough that op runs have value here. Facts are the Euro is on the eastern edge...which is kinda strange typically. Regardless, the GFS has seemed to be the middle road solution, which isn't a bad way to go at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Does it snow in Michigan anymore? The LES machine will be cranking after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GFS doesn't look any different to me over the 6z runs. Low passes directly overhead. At least early this morning the DVN office is riding the EURO solution still. LOOKING AT THESE ISSUES...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A FASTER AND MORE MILD SOLUTION...LAYING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK. IT HAS WAVERED ON ITS TRACK NEARLY EVERY RUN BY 50 MILES OR SO...LEAVING OUR CWA IN A SNOW/MIX WITH RAIN ALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST HALF...OR ALL SNOW DEPENDING ON THE RUNS THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE NAM IS NOT USED SINCE THE WAVE IN QUESTION CAUSING THE STORM IS WELL OUTSIDE ITS DOMAIN. THE 00Z UKMET IS NEAR THE OPERATIONAL GFS TRACK...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL/GEM LAYING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE GFS TRACK. THUS RATHER TIGHT CLUSTERING IS SEEN IN THESE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH...AND HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT THE PAST 48 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS CONCERNING THIS STORM. IT ALONE IS FORECASTING THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE ALL SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT...AS IT ALSO HAS A SLOWER ONSET OF SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING COMPARED TO THE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE DOMESTIC MODELS. THIS CONSISTENCY LEADS ONE TO STRONGLY CONSIDER IT THE BEST MODEL IN ADDITION TO THAT THE STORM IN QUESTION IS OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AT THIS TIME...AND IS CERTAINLY IN THE WHEELHOUSE OF WHAT THE ECMWF DOES BEST. A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE GFS MEMBERS SHOW THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THUS THERE IS AGAIN SUPPORT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY...BY 50 TO 80 MILES...PATH COMPARED TO THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It's a beautiful thing that this thing looks to be a fairly major event for parts of the region. Confidence higher in that, as it has remained so in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Question Does it still show the hurricane winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Henry Margusity has quite the snow map for the upcoming storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z GFS every bit as windy. In fact it now has 925 mb winds of 60-65 kts at MKE (00z Friday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Henry Margusity has quite the snow map for the upcoming storm.. Drama queen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Good grief, the 12z GFS has sustained surface winds in excess of 40 kts at MKE at 00z Friday. This isn't even with onshore flow...the flow is offshore at that point and it's still that strong. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Good grief, the 12z GFS has sustained surface winds in excess of 40 kts at MKE at 00z Friday. This isn't even with onshore flow...the flow is offshore at that point and it's still that strong. Very impressive. Well maybe in that scenario we could reach blizzard thresholds if the snow lasts at least 3 hours in tangent with those kind of winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Serious wind potential closer to home as well with 55-60 kt wind at the top of the mixed layer. Would possibly see a period of high wind warning criteria at LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 American models certainly trending towards a traditional Omaha/Rochester/Wausau hit. Love the fact this storm is bombing away as it heads into the lakes. Keeps the storm moving at a slower pace, and also adds very strong winds to the mix. Certainly looks like up to 10" could fall in the main band, with even more up in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z ECM running yet? Someone who has it wanna do play by play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Henry Margusity has quite the snow map for the upcoming storm.. Haha, you made me look! What's he thinking!? Particularly across the lake from here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Good grief, the 12z GFS has sustained surface winds in excess of 40 kts at MKE at 00z Friday. This isn't even with onshore flow...the flow is offshore at that point and it's still that strong. Very impressive. Very impressive. Shows 60mph gust potential at MKE and surrounding areas. Also a large area of 50mph gust potential. With falling snow in some of those areas that should be very dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Very impressive. Shows 60mph gust potential at MKE and surrounding areas. Also a large area of 50mph gust potential. With falling snow in some of those areas that should be very dramatic. If anything, that product looks a little underdone. Momentum transfer progs would support some gusts up to 70 mph around MKE and possibly into northeastern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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