Sidewinder Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Hoosier, would a track south of Chicago northward through Michigan typically put us in a dry-slot screw zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Here I am trying to figure out what to do with this series of mixed precip events in Maine, and almost missed the weenie solutions for you guys. I took a peek at the GFS cross sections right around 06z Thursday. Nice little fgen signal about 50 miles W of MLI at the surface. This would probably put the line from CSQ-ALO-MSN in the best snow. I mean that frame alone has great lift through the snow growth zones with some -EPV above it. Really good signal for banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 And the 6z GFS just went a bit more northwest, takes a 984mb low to the IL/WI shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Should have some juice to work with too, with a seasonably moist air mass advecting north. Carried by a nice 2 sigma LLJ, and over the top of a seasonably strong cold conveyor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Pretty big jump on the gfs this morning. So it looks like to its the US versus the world on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 And the 6z GFS just went a bit more northwest, takes a 984mb low to the IL/WI shoreline. ensemble members continue to increase in strength...it's looking pretty likely the region will be facing a high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 ensemble members continue to increase in strength...it's looking pretty likely the region will be facing a high impact event. some offices putting out SWS's...no problem IMO with it's proximity to the holidays and impact on travel plans via airlines and east/west highways regionally...also, the impacted areas haven't seen a system with these (modeled) capabilities in nearly 22 months... cautiously warning of potentials is a safe play ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 SE Michigan is out of the game, now trying to pin down who in this state is in the game, its a mystery. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 SE Michigan is out of the game, now trying to pin down who in this state is in the game, its a mystery. Jon We never were in the game. Congratz Turtle and WeatherBo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 We never were in the game. Congratz Turtle and WeatherBo. I'm not sure anyone in the lower peninsula is in the game.... Probably some change over in FAR NW lower.... But to see all snow, you probably have to be in Newberry. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'm not sure anyone in the lower peninsula is in the game.... Probably some change over in FAR NW lower.... But to see all snow, you probably have to be in Newberry. Jon Does it snow in Michigan anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Does it snow in Michigan anymore? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Does it snow in Michigan anymore? Hasn't the euro been consistent in showing snow for w lower Michigan? Personally, if it starts the NW trend I may gave to start letting myself down easy. Won't punt this imby until we are basically in now casting time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Should have snow here, unless this thing takes a major step SE...which I highly doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Would think the NAM would start to shift SE in the next few runs. Edit. Looks like it will start with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Can't wait to see the 12z GFS and EURO... The NWS here seems to side with the 0z Euro... because of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Can't wait to see the 12z GFS and EURO... The NWS here seems to side with the 0z Euro... because of consistency. If the EURO is right it will really be a non event around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Locally, the TV/Radio mets are giving a track from just to the west of Chcago, to through NW IN and SW MI. My guess would be a compromise track, bringing the low to just S of Chicago, which will mean mainly rain for us, with a bit of snow on the backside, I should think. They do show a farther SE track which is described as an "outlier" bringing us all snow, starting Thursday afternoon. I doubt that scenario very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 still like Joplin to South Bend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Saints- Yeah... Hopefully it trends towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Saints- Yeah... Hopefully it trends towards the GFS Yes NAM and GFS now showing quite a similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z NAM a step in the right direction(southeastward), but it's still too far northwest for even east-central Iowa. It would drop the heavy snow band from sw to ne IA while dropping rain southeast of CR to Dubuque all Wednesday night. Edit: I just noticed the HPC seems to be going with a farther nw track as they have the best snow band from sw to ne IA. That is definitely more in line with the American models vs the Euro that all the nws offices seem to be siding with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z NAM a step in the right direction(southeastward), but it's still too far northwest for even east-central Iowa. It would drop the heavy snow band from sw to ne IA while dropping rain southeast of CR to Dubuque all Wednesday night. If the NAM and GFS both start to move toward the Euro, I will continue clinging to a thread of hope for SW Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 When has hpc not been playing catch up tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The 12z RGEM, at 48 hrs, is even warmer out ahead of the storm than last night's GGEM. Considering the GGEM had rain all the way up into eastern Iowa Wednesday night this is not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The 12z RGEM, at 48 hrs, is even warmer out ahead of the storm than last night's GGEM. Considering the GGEM had rain all the way up into eastern Iowa Wednesday night this is not a good sign. As always gonna have to watch the WAA out ahead of this thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 If I can remember right the GGEM over did the WAA on the last system. At least up until like 24 hours before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 How long until this system gets fully sampled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 If the NAM and GFS both start to move toward the Euro, I will continue clinging to a thread of hope for SW Michigan. Me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 How long until this system gets fully sampled? The models show all the energy finally over California by Tuesday evening's 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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