Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Personally I would love to see the NAM verify (will be home in MN tomorrow for Christmas), but northern stream interference always worries me, plus the NAM is never worth putting stock in when the upper baroclinic wave is on the edge of the boundary (I have learned that even more forecasting out here in AK where the NAM is completely and utterly worthless near the edges of its boundary). Only hope for a NW push/stronger cyclone would be the perfect combination of a perfectly ejecting PV anomaly to incite rapid development leeside...and a slower ejection which would help limit northern stream influence. So what's Baro's hunch think right now? Hope all is well up in AK btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Personally I would love to see the NAM verify (will be home in MN tomorrow for Christmas), but northern stream interference always worries me, plus the NAM is never worth putting stock in when the upper baroclinic wave is on the edge of the boundary (I have learned that even more forecasting out here in AK where the NAM is completely and utterly worthless near the edges of its boundary). Only hope for a NW push/stronger cyclone would be the perfect combination of a perfectly ejecting PV anomaly to incite rapid development leeside...and a slower ejection which would help limit northern stream influence. I think the key to look at here is the northern wave and what it does H85-H7, if it keeps most of the energy north of the border this system could cut up, if the energy drops south it will not cut up. Just my amateur opinion . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Personally I would love to see the NAM verify (will be home in MN tomorrow for Christmas), but northern stream interference always worries me, plus the NAM is never worth putting stock in when the upper baroclinic wave is on the edge of the boundary (I have learned that even more forecasting out here in AK where the NAM is completely and utterly worthless near the edges of its boundary). Only hope for a NW push/stronger cyclone would be the perfect combination of a perfectly ejecting PV anomaly to incite rapid development leeside...and a slower ejection which would help limit northern stream influence. At any rate welcome home!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So what's Baro's hunch think right now? Hope all is well up in AK btw baro coming home to MN tomorrow then this thing isn't cutting nw...lol jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Turtle sitting in a very good spot for this storm... Going to be a fun one if those winds show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The FIM is updating and MPX has been quoting it lately. Not sure if it was the lead model for our dumping or not that we got last week, but my guess is yes, as all of sudden it's being mentioned in our AFD's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Angry....feels refreshing...need a winter jacket is all...LMAO Seriously it's cold up here, but not that cold, many in this sub forum would think it's frigid, but for us not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro about the same as the 12z run so far. 1000mb low over the northwest TX PH through 66hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 0z Euro carbon coby through 72hr, 1000mb low in western OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 1000mb over Joplin, MO at 78hr, a tad NW of 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 small 996mb contour a hair east of STL at 84hr, warmer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 992mb probably just barely N of LAF at 90hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 988mb in southern MI at 96hr. Sfc temps pretty toasty here early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 ECMWF now the outlier. Would love to see what the HPC thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro tracks the surface low just south and east of Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro tracks the surface low just south and east of Chicago near LAF is a little more than just south and east of Chicago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro drops .98" liquid at DPA, half of that comes when the sfc temps are above freezing but 850's below freezing the entire time precip is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The model spread tells me that the Euro is not a outlier, the true outlier is the Nam, other than that at this far out a difference of 50 miles or so is no big outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The model spread tells me that the Euro is not a outlier, the true outlier is the Nam, other than that at this far out a difference of 50 miles or so is no big outlier EURO definitely is not the outlier. We're 80 + hours away from it impacting the subforum with the system in the north Pacific. 50 miles is nothing! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 The model spread tells me that the Euro is not a outlier, the true outlier is the Nam, other than that at this far out a difference of 50 miles or so is no big outlier The NAM is the biggest outlier. Another way to put it would be that the NAM is on the western edge and the ECMWF on the eastern edge of the envelope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Exactly... this thing could still end up in MSP or drop 30 inches on MKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro drops .98" liquid at DPA, half of that comes when the sfc temps are above freezing but 850's below freezing the entire time precip is falling. you have pro right? you wanna list a couple cities and what snowfall totals would be with the 00z ecm run? pia please lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Is there a rule when the NAM and ECMWF are in complete disagreement? In this case, go with the one in the middle...the GFS? Probably leaning a bit east of what the GFS has. Still wouldn't be great for MBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I was bored. Hand drawn 0z Euro snowfall map. (3",6",9",12") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I was bored. Hand drawn 0z Euro snowfall map. (3",6",9",12") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Strangely enough the 00z euro ensembles hold steady with the 12z ensembles. Same exact mean track.. Thus from near Indianapolis to near Detroit.. One notable difference though is they are slightly stronger this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Strangely enough the 00z euro ensembles hold steady with the 12z ensembles. Same exact mean track.. Thus from near Indianapolis to near Detroit.. One notable difference though is they are slightly stronger this go around. Gladly would take that mean track and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Gladly would take that mean track and stronger. You and me both.. Strange to have them be the eastern/se most solution. In the PAST typically if the euro ensembles did not follow the OP then usually the OP on the following run adjusted back towards them.. Ofcourse this is not the same mighty euro it once was either. Still it gives a sliver of hope for those of us further east.. Now to see how badly the NAM torches us this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Usual spread on the 00z GEFS. A couple members are really deep (one is like 972 mb east of Green Bay). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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