Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Crazy winds over Lake Michigan as this storm bombs over MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 0z ggem has 984 L right over chicago at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So guys, where is this storm supposed to bomb out? Won't be able to pin that down until Tues-Wed when the system is sampled. Most major models bomb the system over Lake Michigan into western and central Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 0z ggem has 984 L right over chicago at 96 NW trend FTW or FTL, depending on who you are. Yes, I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Won't be able to pin that down until Tues-Wed when the system is sampled. Most major models bomb the system over Lake Michigan into western and central Michigan. Oh ok. I remember that the early December 2009 storm bombed out along the IA/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 ukmet 985mb over Ludington, MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 NW trend FTW or FTL, depending on who you are. Yes, I said it. Eh, it will flop back at least one more time before this thing gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GEM with the half-assed coastal transfer after being in W. MI again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Hard to tell with the 24 hr jump the UKMET has with this system this far out, but best guess is that passes just nw of Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Eh, it will flop back at least one more time before this thing gets here Bank on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 GEM with the half-assed coastal transfer after being in W. MI again... GGEM type scenario would maximize the fun for the lakes. Longer period of snow/wind in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GGEM type scenario would maximize the fun for the lakes. Longer period of snow/wind in that scenario. Show me that image without knowing what happened before it and I'd be stoked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 NW trend FTW or FTL, depending on who you are. Yes, I said it. For almost everyone on this side, a NW trend would be mostly bad for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So guys, where is this storm supposed to bomb out? EDIT: Nevermind In terms of "bomb cyclogenesis" as laid out by Sanders and others (http://goo.gl/JxSQJ) bomb cyclogenesis in the lower 48 generally equates to a 24 hr drop in pressure or more in 24 hrs (it is latitude based). In nearly all leeside cyclone cases in the plains ejecting into the OV, it is extremely rare for a cyclone to undergo such a deepening rate since leeside lows, by their nature, are already deep due to leeside mountain processes, and often they will "weaken" in terms of pressure as the upper wave ejects before undergoing more steady baroclinic deepening through the plains. Even Groundshogs Day, Feb 1 storm did not reach bomb criteria, and that had major latent heat release working on its side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 For almost everyone on this side, a NW trend would be mostly bad for everyone. Tell that to Turtle, Andy and Daddylonglegs, but I see your point. Those three probably will get the brunt of this, as similarities to Dec. 8-9, 2009 and Dec. 11, 2010 are coming into view it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It's funny people are ruling themselves out after a few runs 96hrs out when the wave is still out in the pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 96 & 84hr 0z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Won't be able to pin that down until Tues-Wed when the system is sampled. Most major models bomb the system over Lake Michigan into western and central Michigan. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It's funny people are ruling themselves out after a few runs 96hrs out when the wave is still out in the pacific It's a little less than that, although the GEM slowed the system down a bit to make it so. I've seen too many similar December scenarios with lows cutting through Milwaukee or Chicago that I figure it's the most likely scenario this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It's funny people are ruling themselves out after a few runs 96hrs out when the wave is still out in the pacific For Illinois and Western MI yes, but I think I'm fairly safe here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Won't be able to pin that down until Tues-Wed when the system is sampled. Most major models bomb the system over Lake Michigan into western and central Michigan. Actually, the northern wave which forms part of the mean upper low is actually already being partially sampled by the AK upper air and obs network. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 For Illinois and Western MI yes, but I think I'm fairly safe here Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It's a little less than that, although the GEM slowed the system down a bit to make it so. I've seen too many similar December scenarios with lows cutting through Milwaukee or Chicago that I figure it's the most likely scenario this time around. 4 hrs ago you were getting worried about it being suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 4 hrs ago you were getting worried about it being suppressed lol yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Tell that to Turtle, Andy and Daddylonglegs, but I see your point. Those three probably will get the brunt of this, as similarities to Dec. 8-9, 2009 and Dec. 11, 2010 are coming into view it seems. I like the impacts this is hinting at for those mentioned above, for those of us on the far western edge of this sub forum (ie far eastern MN) not looking for much at this time, lets see what the northern wave will do 24 hrs before impact, weaker and further north, we could see this storm cutting up into Green Bay. Chances of that happening about 1 in 5 imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 96 & 84hr 0z ggem Past hour 96, the low makes it to the northern LP of M and then transfers basically right over Toledo Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It's a little less than that, although the GEM slowed the system down a bit to make it so. I've seen too many similar December scenarios with lows cutting through Milwaukee or Chicago that I figure it's the most likely scenario this time around. Yep, I was thinking the same thing. Winter for us seems to be two months long anymore...January and February. I should just expect rain from this. So sick of storms dissing SW Michigan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 4 hrs ago you were getting worried about it being suppressed Yes I was, it shows the fine line lol. Get on Skype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Actually, the northern wave which forms part of the mean upper low is actually already being partially sampled by the AK upper air and obs network. Thanks Baro...that's the whole key as to how far this system can move to the nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Thanks Baro...that's the whole key as to how far this system can move to the nw. Personally I would love to see the NAM verify (will be home in MN tomorrow for Christmas), but northern stream interference always worries me, plus the NAM is never worth putting stock in when the upper baroclinic wave is on the edge of the boundary (I have learned that even more forecasting out here in AK where the NAM is completely and utterly worthless near the edges of its boundary). Only hope for a NW push/stronger cyclone would be the perfect combination of a perfectly ejecting PV anomaly to incite rapid development leeside...and a slower ejection which would help limit northern stream influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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