cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 78-84hr snowfall from the NAM. Over 1"/hr in the main band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GFS ejects low out in NE New Mexico at 63 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GFS pushing the storm down much more than the NAM.... *Chant* G-F-S...G-F-S....G-F-S! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Farther west at hour 75 than the 12z GFS, looks like it may go right over me and west of St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GFS continues southern track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Farther west at hour 75 than the 12z GFS, looks like it may go right over me and west of St. Louis. Its 25 miles north and stronger at the same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Disgusting.. Hopefully the LES set up looks better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Definite bump northwest compared to 12/18z runs. Looks good for much of Iowa into Wisconsin. Not the extreme NW run the NAM has, but a definite bump. All in all not a huge change considering we're still 72+hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Wow, GFS goes ballistic. Storm drops to 984mb over western lower MI. Really squeezes out the snow over southern Wisconsin as the storm deepens. Big wind maker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Storm begins to go negative tilt at 84 hours. SE WI still catches it pretty good after 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looks worst over eastern UP again.... This could be the biggest Yoop storm in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Southern Wisconsin smoked. Over a foot for MSN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GFS really deepens the storm but its also warmer. Deform band looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Grr. Chi gets the shaft..again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The GFS bumping a bit northwest will make the GEM and especially Euro interesting considering they had trended a touch southeast in recent runs. EDIT: GFS ensembles should be interesting as well. Will have to see if any members have any over-amped runs like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 FWIW... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1059 PM EST SUN DEC 16 2012 VALID DEC 17/0000 UTC THRU DEC 20/1200 UTC ...UPR TROF CROSSING THE WEST TUE-WED...MOVING INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST BY THURS... PREFERENCE: 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM CONTINUES TO TEND TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE CONSENSUS WITH THE HT FALLS CROSSING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND WITH THE SRN STREAM SEPARATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL MDL CONSENSUS THROUGH WED. JUST AFTER THIS PD...THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A STRONG OUTLIER ALOFT WITH THE CLSD LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE MID MS VLY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Haven't been following the wind fields from run to run but the 00z GFS looks impressive...the model is progging sustained winds of 30-35 mph over a pretty big area with higher gust potential obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 NAM not the correct model to use this far out it is best from 0 -54 hrs. The GFS has trended a little further NW, but now grinds out a lot more QPF showing a blizzard for most of Wisconsin except the NW and extreme SE part of the state. The ECMWF has been the most consistent and has hinted at blizzard conditions too. This New Yorker thinks a good part of Wisconsin is going to get a blizzard. I will be in arriving on Tuesday in Milwaukee for the holiday's. In MKE part of the storm may be rain, but I still see a good chance for a blizzard there too, at least after the 850 low goes east of MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 The 00z GFS forecast sounding for MKE at 96 hours is dirty...55-60 kts at 925 mb with mixing into that layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 NAM not the correct model to use this far out it is best from 0 -54 hrs. The GFS has trended a little further NW, but now grinds out a lot more QPF showing a blizzard for most of Wisconsin except the NW and extreme SE part of the state. The ECMWF has been the most consistent and has hinted at blizzard conditions too. This New Yorker thinks a good part of Wisconsin is going to get a blizzard. I will be in arriving on Tuesday in Milwaukee for the holiday's. In MKE part of the storm may be rain, but I still see a good chance for a blizzard there too, at least after the 850 low goes east of MKE. Yeah, that is what I think overall. I give it a good chance for a Madison to Green Bay blizzard, but further SE is definitely possible as well. Major national sources are catching on to the big potential of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The 00z GFS forecast sounding for MKE at 96 hours is dirty...55-60 kts at 925 mb with mixing into that layer. Blowing rain to blowing sleet to blizzard conditions lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 NAM not the correct model to use this far out it is best from 0 -54 hrs. The GFS has trended a little further NW, but now grinds out a lot more QPF showing a blizzard for most of Wisconsin except the NW and extreme SE part of the state. The ECMWF has been the most consistent and has hinted at blizzard conditions too. This New Yorker thinks a good part of Wisconsin is going to get a blizzard. I will be in arriving on Tuesday in Milwaukee for the holiday's. In MKE part of the storm may be rain, but I still see a good chance for a blizzard there too, at least after the 850 low goes east of MKE. Early winter when does the GFS not trend NW? Wouldn't bet on this thing coming easterly on future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 NAM not the correct model to use this far out it is best from 0 -54 hrs. The GFS has trended a little further NW, but now grinds out a lot more QPF showing a blizzard for most of Wisconsin except the NW and extreme SE part of the state. The ECMWF has been the most consistent and has hinted at blizzard conditions too. This New Yorker thinks a good part of Wisconsin is going to get a blizzard. I will be in arriving on Tuesday in Milwaukee for the holiday's. In MKE part of the storm may be rain, but I still see a good chance for a blizzard there too, at least after the 850 low goes east of MKE. 00z GFS gust potential. Pretty impressive considering the rate of snowfall in the midst of those winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Blowing rain to blowing sleet to blizzard conditions lol. I'd be a little concerned about power outages in the rapid deepening scenarios. A good chunk of the snow is probably going to be wet before trending powdery later. High winds and wet snow don't go well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'd be a little concerned about power outages in the rapid deepening scenarios. A good chunk of the snow is probably going to be wet before trending powdery later. High winds and wet snow don't go well. Most definitely, because it looks like a heavy wet snow will be the general consistency. You're right, it could be a nightmare near and anywhere a bit NW of the low pressure track if this thing deepens like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I'd be a little concerned about power outages in the rapid deepening scenarios. A good chunk of the snow is probably going to be wet before trending powdery later. High winds and wet snow don't go well. Now THAT is something I don't want. Not as bad as freezing rain and high winds like on February 24, 2007. EDIT: Come to think of it, much of the snow from the early December 2009 storm was wet in nature but I never lost power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Pretty nasty sounding for MKE, those winds would have no problem mixing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So guys, where is this storm supposed to bomb out? EDIT: Nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I have been lurking for the past year or so and know almost nothing about what everyone is saying on here. But how is this storm looking for NE lower MI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 When is this thing supposed to be sampled, aka, when can we start to actually narrow down a path instead of me fretting about every NW slip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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