weathergy Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Who wants to bet the GFS won't budge either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 MSP gets demolished.. Probably close to 2.00" of precip if the NAM would continue more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 MSP gets demolished.. If all the models trend toward the NAM...... "shudders" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Probably close to 2.00" of precip if the NAM would continue more. And probably a **** ton of convective feedback.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Has the NAM ever verified? It has its moments...the trick is figuring when one of them might happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 MSP would have to declare a state of emergency if that happened, wow!!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I really hope the NAM doesn't verified. I don't want to be stuck with a cold rain like last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It has been a very long time since the Detroit area was in the thick of things in this type of set up. So long I can seem to recall one. Typicially the bulk of the snow is mid state and runs towards the thumb. As you run SE snow turns to rain and we get dry slotted when the snow turn over. Could this be the season where this setup changes?? I think Lake Erie has something to do with the upper air patterns, or it is just a coincedence. The Detroit area was in the thick of a ton of storms in the 4 years prior to last year when no one was in the thick of anything (other than garden variety snowfalls). Its ALLLL dependent on storm track (not Lake Erie). I was saying in the med/longrange thread...perhaps a good sign is the various storm tracks weve seen so far this fall and very early winter. Though there is never a winter with just one storm track, often a predominate track sets up, but perhaps if there isnt any dominating track this year, it could be the year where in the end everyone has had a share of the fun but no one area gets absolutely crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Okay new question. When has the nam ever been the only model to catch on to something that no other model has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Who wants to bet the GFS won't budge either? The thing probably wont be sampled til Tuesday. What ever direction the models start heading could give us a general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Stating the obvious and not saying it's going to be right, but if ejection occurs as shown with decent height rises ahead of the trough, a NAM-like solution is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 2009 we had a something like this happen. Everything looked great and the NAM capitulated and we had a MSP special instead of a well advertised I80 special. This happens I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Okay new question. When has the nam ever been the only model to catch on to something that no other model has. The NAM is notorious for having ungodly qpf numbers in significant storm systems that do not verify 99.9% of the time. As hoosier said, the NAM has its moments, but I would take the Euro on my side over the NAM. Just have to hope this is not one of the NAM's moments lol (meaning track-wise...still doubt the qpf will verify). EDIT: I see qpf is not at 2"+ some were just extrapolating. So MAYBE the nam qpf could come close to verifying. Speaking of MSP, their depth is down to 1". I really did not see them losing a water-laden 10" of snow like that. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 2009 we had a something like this happen. Everything looked great and the NAM capitulated and we had a MSP special instead of a well advertised I80 special. This happens I guess. I remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Okay new question. When has the nam ever been the only model to catch on to something that no other model has. Dec 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The runs this evening will be fun to watch, to be honest I don't believe the Nam has a good handle on the northern energy with it keeping most of it Canada with a small piece breaking off in the H85-700mb layer, the rest of the models show it somewhat deeper and bringing a dry layer directly behind over central MN, causing the block to push this system south. Ultimately I think the track will driven by the northern energy coming just before lee side cyclogenisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Dec 2009 The early December storm or the late December storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Okay new question. When has the nam ever been the only model to catch on to something that no other model has. I think it was either or both of the December 1, 2006 winter storm and the December 8-9, 2009 winter storm/blizzard (particularly the second one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The early December storm or the late December storm? Early December if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Is it me or does the NAM have a more impressive baroclinic zone which could be playing a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The block is over eastern Canada creating a new pv over the plains which phases with the aggressive pacfiic wave. I would think a stronger block would create a stronger, further northwest low because of that. The real problem is the -PNA. No, this would not be correct. That would only make sense if the block was down the entire East Coast. It is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Stating the obvious and not saying it's going to be right, but if ejection occurs as shown with decent height rises ahead of the trough, a NAM-like solution is possible. I recall a winterstorm several years ago...I believe leading up to xmas. Every model was hammering a major snowstorm for chicago/IN, except the nam, (actually the eta at the time). The eta was showing nothing, a non-event, weak wave etc. Damn thing scored the coupe. I'm on the sidelines for this one regardless. But if I was on the southeastern fringes of a snowstorm coming out of the sw and the nam was blowing this thing nw of me, (even as an outlier).... i'd be a bit concerned. Not so much that it will verify to that extreme, but it might be telltale that the other models will start coming in a bit nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I sure hope the NAM is wrong, long way to chase this one... Marquette! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Early December if I remember correctly. Oh I remember that storm. Got 9 inches of snow from that storm. Des Moines a little over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 g. 2009 we had a something like this happen. Everything looked great and the NAM capitulated and we had a MSP special instead of a well advertised I80 special. This happens I guess. Yup, I remember it happening several times during that winter... '09-'10.... The NAM would be northwest of all the models and not budge...eventually being the right one. I feel like if it stands out like this, it is going to be correct. I hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 That 2009 NAM storm was the 8-9th. Still picked up 3.5" of backlash from that. 0° for a low on the morning of the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Wow the NAM shows an 18" lollipop on the IA/MN border through 84hrs with snow still falling lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I just realized the date...this storm could be quite the ringing in of the Winter Solstice for somebody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Sparty I think it was this storm that your talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Sparty I think it was this storm that your talking about Think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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