gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I have the jma and the long range Nam on my side. Lots of confidence. Wish someone could get a teal big one but so far that doesn't seem real likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I learned long ago never to dismiss either a last minute nw trend or last minute trend se towards suppression. Has happened even inside of 24hrs.. 1st half of 07-08 was well known for last minute nw trends while the 2nd half of 07-08 and more so 08-09 it went the other way towards the se. Oh sure, I'm not that worried about suppression, though if the Euro and GEM means remain near the Ohio River for the next two days, then needless to say I would welcome a shift NW like Groundhog Day did in small increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Hey everyone, I'm flying to Chicago Thursday to visit family, what does it look like I can expect from this storm at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Hey everyone, I'm flying to Chicago Thursday to visit family, what does it look like I can expect from this storm at this point? Precipitation. A range from all rain or all snow exists right now... not that that's helpful for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Precipitation. A range from all rain or all snow exists right now... not that that's helpful for you. Well, as a snow lower I'll have to hope for the latter, especially with how things are here in NC. Anyways, not trying to take this thread off topic, but thanks for any info anyone has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I learned long ago never to dismiss either a last minute nw trend or last minute trend se towards suppression. Has happened even inside of 24hrs.. 1st half of 07-08 was well known for last minute nw trends while the 2nd half of 07-08 and more so 08-09 it went the other way towards the se. This happened with the most recent storm in the upper midwest. Last minute trend south buried southern minnesota and duluth barely got anything. Shall be a fun next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Well, as a snow lower I'll have to hope for the latter, especially with how things are here in NC. Anyways, not trying to take this thread off topic, but thanks for any info anyone has. Hey stick around awhile a we will discuss the play by play of the long range Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 You know whats funny....this will be our FIFTH winter since 2007-08. And most of the region did phenomenal to near-record breaking with snowfall that year. But the "NW trend" fears have lived on and will never die. And I admit I have them too. But think about it, ever since that you-can-bank-on-it NW trend 5 years ago, there never has been a predominate trend. Some NW, some SE, some others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 You know whats funny....this will be our FIFTH winter since 2007-08. And most of the region did phenomenal to near-record breaking with snowfall that year. But the "NW trend" fears have lived on and will never die. And I admit I have them too. But think about it, ever since that you-can-bank-on-it NW trend 5 years ago, there never has been a predominate trend. Some NW, some SE, some others. Very very true. As I type it blows up an area of. 1+ qpf on Tuesday over my roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The northwest trend is all about a strong southern vort. If it does come in weaker, I could see globals keep a similiar track but weaken the low to match. The fact they are so amped up, is whats telling me of the more "Green Bay" hit. But it may end up a moderate event if weakened. As has been mentioned a few times recently in this thread alot has to do with where it ejects into the Plains as well. Thus stronger does not always equal further nw and nor does weaker always equal further se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 You know whats funny....this will be our FIFTH winter since 2007-08. And most of the region did phenomenal to near-record breaking with snowfall that year. But the "NW trend" fears have lived on and will never die. And I admit I have them too. But think about it, ever since that you-can-bank-on-it NW trend 5 years ago, there never has been a predominate trend. Some NW, some SE, some others. If the Euro is right, you could get a hotel room in Lansing and experience the full brunt of this one. If the GFS is right, better move that plan to St. Ignace or SSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The northwest trend is all about a strong southern vort. If it does come in weaker, I could see globals keep a similiar track but weaken the low to match. The fact they are so amped up, is whats telling me of the more "Green Bay" hit. But it may end up a moderate event if weakened. I just feel like if it does end up tracking further SE, say from indy to sandusky or cleveland, that those in SE MI and NW OH still wouldn't see too much snow due do the fact that a transfer will occur the further this thing tracks SE. Don't usually see a transfer when it tracks over Detroit or just west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The northwest trend is all about a strong southern vort. If it does come in weaker, I could see globals keep a similiar track but weaken the low to match. The fact they are so amped up, is whats telling me of the more "Green Bay" hit. But it may end up a moderate event if weakened. A stronger southern vort. would allow the system to dig further south and phase with the northern vort later on. There is really no model support at this point for a green bay hit. It could change once the system is sampled but I really dont buy a track that far north. A further south ejection is better for those of us further to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 If the Euro is right, you could get a hotel room in Lansing and experience the full brunt of this one. If the GFS is right, better move that plan to St. Ignace or SSM. I think its a bit too early to be saying things like this. We have no run to run consistency. Thing hasnt even been sampled yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 I just feel like if it does end up tracking further SE, say from indy to sandusky or cleveland, that those in SE MI and NW OH still wouldn't see too much snow due do the fact that a transfer will occur the further this thing tracks SE. Don't usually see a transfer when it tracks over Detroit or just west. One thing I have noticed is that even on the farther south/east solutions, the models are not really showing a full blown transfer to the coast. It tries to get going but it's more of a double barrelled low at worst with the primary retaining a lot of strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I just feel like if it does end up tracking further SE, say from indy to sandusky or cleveland, that those in SE MI and NW OH still wouldn't see too much snow due do the fact that a transfer will occur the further this thing tracks SE. Don't usually see a transfer when it tracks over Detroit or just west. I still haven't seen any model show a full transfer to the coast, but rather over the Apps or Coastal Plain. Besides, the transfer occurs so late that it's still a fairly big event for those who will see snow from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It would dig further southwest the stronger it is, closing off further west and moving further west. Heck, I thought the NAM was redic and Green Bay was a little far south on that run!!! Lol. In this case stronger doesnt necessarily mean further west. It can only go so far north before it hits the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Lol. In this case stronger doesnt necessarily mean further west. It can only go so far north before it hits the block. You are most likely right but there quite a few storms in the past that would say I told you so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 You are most likely right but there quite a few storms in the past that would say I told you so.... Oh i know haha. It probably isnt the norm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looking at the 00z NAM so far, I don't think it's going to budge from it's northward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 At hr69 the Nam still looks like a torch. Healthy storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 MSP gets demolished...Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So we've got the NAM hundreds of miles further N/W of every other model... yep it's officially winter again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Congrats MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 MSP would have to declare a state of emergency if that happened, wow!!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 MSP gets demolished.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It has been a very long time since the Detroit area was in the thick of things in this type of set up. So long I can seem to recall one. Typicially the bulk of the snow is mid state and runs towards the thumb. As you run SE snow turns to rain and we get dry slotted when the snow turn over. Could this be the season where this setup changes?? I think Lake Erie has something to do with the upper air patterns, or it is just a coincedence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Has the NAM ever verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It would dig further southwest the stronger it is, closing off further west and moving further west. Heck, I thought the NAM was redic and Green Bay was a little far south on that run!!! It's the NAM... plus as others have stated it matters where it ejects out, and how strong the block is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 So we've got the NAM hundreds of miles further N/W of every other model... yep it's officially winter again Lol! Wouldn't be the NAM if it was in line with the other models this far out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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