wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Storm looks legit...people should do well but this won't be a dream scenario for anyone. Dream scenario is relative, seeing 6 inches would seem like a dream right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I bet any money that doesn't verify. Detroit isn't getting 10" from this storm unless the track is more southeast than what models are projecting. that was ignorant of them to post that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I bet any money that doesn't verify. Detroit isn't getting 10" from this storm unless the track is more southeast than what models are projecting. If you anybody here is taking that seriously I'm sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Sassy Tim is the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Just for posterity's sake: From WeatherNationTV. JB's definitely the chief met there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Just for posterity's sake: From WeatherNationTV. Nah..... It would be nice... Is this for the event we are tracking, or is that from the 2011 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 If you anybody here is taking that seriously I'm sorry. Oh, I'm not. I'm actually not expecting anything significant this month. Might get my first inch out of this system, but not expecting much more than that out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Oh, I'm not. I'm actually not expecting anything significant this month. Might get my first inch out of this system, but not expecting much more than that out of this. Why throw the towel in when the models have shifted south? Baffling. It all depends where this thing ejects out and where it runs into the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 JB's definitely the chief met there. No, if it was JB, the purples/16 inches of snow would be east from D.C. to Portland, and the map would be titled BIGGEST STORM TO EVER HIT ALL OF THE BIG CITIES; GO BUY SOME SHOVELS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Why throw the towel in when the models have shifted south? Baffling. It all depends where this thing ejects out and where it runs into the block I'm not throwing in the towel. I just have low expectations, for good reason. If I were to blend all the solutions together as of now, the low would still ride up into Michigan, the models have been performing pretty well so far, and taking account of the pattern for the last month or so, this might be. I have no reason to doubt the consensus other than for the usual reasons, sampling, uncertainty, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Is it not out of the question that Sault Sainte Marie might get 1.5 to 2 feet with lake enhancement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'm not throwing in the towel. I just have low expectations, for good reason. If I were to blend all the solutions together as of now, the low would still ride up into Michigan, the models have been performing pretty well so far, and taking account of the pattern for the last month or so, this might be. I have no reason to doubt the consensus other than for the usual reasons, sampling, uncertainty, etc. Its hard to bet against the euro. And the euro ens are even a bit south of the op. Hell ill take a rain to snow situation haha even if its a few inches. Interested to see what the models do tonight atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Its hard to bet against the euro. And the euro ens are even a bit south of the op. Hell ill take a rain to snow situation haha even if its a few inches. Interested to see what the models do tonight atleast. Even the Euro isn't that great of a track, at least for our area. It's a start, yes, but we do have a few days to go before we can have any solid predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 If this storm tracks any further south is it going to tap more moisture from the gulf? Or is there no concern for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'm not throwing in the towel. I just have low expectations, for good reason. If I were to blend all the solutions together as of now, the low would still ride up into Michigan, the models have been performing pretty well so far, and taking account of the pattern for the last month or so, this might be. I have no reason to doubt the consensus other than for the usual reasons, sampling, uncertainty, etc. Even the Euro isn't that great of a track, at least for our area. It's a start, yes, but we do have a few days to go before we can have any solid predictions. At least for the people in the Western Lakes there has been far from a consensus there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 That picture is just teasing me... would love to see that much snow up around Lake Huron / Marysville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Even the Euro isn't that great of a track, at least for our area. It's a start, yes, but we do have a few days to go before we can have any solid predictions. Euro would have nice backside snow though. I don't mind missing the heaviest snow but a gfs scenario would piss me off. My theory is the same as its been for the last month. Just get some frickin snow down! We have months to worry about being a jackpot in a storm, the Christmas season only lasts so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Klingons, I tell ya... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 If MKX is busting out the DGEX, then I'm posting the FIM. This obscure model may or may not have run over Angrysummons' dog. Sorry to burst your FIM bubble, but the NOGAPS depicts the surface low traveling from DVN to MQT, closely following the DGEX. Model agreement FTL. EDIT: At least I didn't post the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 JMA FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Euro would have nice backside snow though. I don't mind missing the heaviest snow but a gfs scenario would piss me off. My theory is the same as its been for the last month. Just get some frickin snow down! We have months to worry about being a jackpot in a storm, the Christmas season only lasts so long. One of the times I agree with you! However, it will still drive me nuts if the main snow band misses and goes through Oceana county. The slight elevation increase or a ridge there seems to encourage that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 We made it through like 10 pages without any crazy fantasy snow maps/foreign models were posted....good job guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 If MKX is busting out the DGEX, then I'm posting the FIM. This obscure model may or may not have run over Angrysummons' dog. Good ole FIM. Only place i ever see it mentioned is in some of the GRR afd's.. It has had it's hits though.. JMA FTW. FIM/JMA/Euro ensemble mean FTW!! :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 You can see the Handling of the Southern vort being crucial here. We have a very negative to very very negative west based block. With the Southern Vort on the Euro digging more and coming out the dominate wave. You can see the block and energy in the North East. I don't know How much further SE this can track. If the Southern vort is over done forget it. If the Southern vort digs a bit more with the current way the trough is progged to swing out. Then we might be talking the Southern H5 vort max moving out of New Mexico into W-More NW Arkansas. The Surface Reflection would obviously track more W-E at first. Probably reach it's lowest latitude around S. Central OK. Head into Western Arkansas s bit North of Central, start to move more North towards NE Arkansas as the trough is well negative and phasing. Then obviously with the Northern Stream phasing with the Southern stream the SLP would turn more NE into South Central Indiana then up to The North side of Western Ohio, Still not good for more than a couple inches here. Id give that track a 20% as of now. We need to see more Southern digging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Lake enhancement along Lake Michigan in that scenario may mean one of the lakeshore communities in WI is likely the winner, unless the defo band weakens before that. It would be my dream scenario, but I don't like the chances of it happening given the envelope of possible solutions. Definitely a possibility I would say. I would say a high chance it the low tracks into SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 If MKX is busting out the DGEX, then I'm posting the FIM. This obscure model may or may not have run over Angrysummons' dog. This is somewhat what I was thinking after seeing the Euro. A stronger N. Stream energy dive into this would be nice for a more quick close off. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/displayMap.cgi?keys=fim:&runtime=2012121612&plot_type=vort_500&fcst=102&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=236&adtfn=0&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 You can see the Handling of the Southern vort being crucial here. We have a very negative to very very negative west based block. With the Southern Vort on the Euro digging more and coming out the dominate wave. You can see the block and energy in the North East. I don't know How much further SE this can track. If the Southern vort is over done forget it. If the Southern vort digs a bit more with the current way the trough is progged to swing out. Then we might be talking the Southern H5 vort max moving out of New Mexico into W-More NW Arkansas. The Surface Reflection would obviously track more W-E at first. Probably reach it's lowest latitude around S. Central OK. Head into Western Arkansas s bit North of Central, start to move more North towards NE Arkansas as the trough is well negative and phasing. Then obviously with the Northern Stream phasing with the Southern stream the SLP would turn more NE into South Central Indiana then up to The North side of Western Ohio, Still not good for more than a couple inches here. Id give that track a 20% as of now. We need to see more Southern digging Funny enough but that is basically almost what the Canadian ensemble mean does.. Tracks very close to Evansville IN and then on up to near Sandusky OH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Pretty funny how last night there was no margin for error to the northwest it seemed around here, and now I'm worried about it being too suppressed. I have no idea what to think. First measurable snow seems like a good bet, but I won't even believe that until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Jim Cantore calling for the end to the snow drought for Chicago, Milwaukee, and Omaha by Thursday PM! - on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Pretty funny how last night there was no margin for error to the northwest it seemed around here, and now I'm worried about it being too suppressed. I have no idea what to think. First measurable snow seems like a good bet, but I won't even believe that until it happens. I learned long ago never to dismiss either a last minute nw trend or last minute trend se towards suppression. Has happened even inside of 24hrs.. 1st half of 07-08 was well known for last minute nw trends while the 2nd half of 07-08 and more so 08-09 it went the other way towards the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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