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December 20-22 Winter Storm (Blizzard?) Potential


Hoosier

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Oh, I'm not. I'm actually not expecting anything significant this month. Might get my first inch out of this system, but not expecting much more than that out of this.

Why throw the towel in when the models have shifted south? Baffling. It all depends where this thing ejects out and where it runs into the block

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Why throw the towel in when the models have shifted south? Baffling. It all depends where this thing ejects out and where it runs into the block

I'm not throwing in the towel. I just have low expectations, for good reason. If I were to blend all the solutions together as of now, the low would still ride up into Michigan, the models have been performing pretty well so far, and taking account of the pattern for the last month or so, this might be. I have no reason to doubt the consensus other than for the usual reasons, sampling, uncertainty, etc.

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I'm not throwing in the towel. I just have low expectations, for good reason. If I were to blend all the solutions together as of now, the low would still ride up into Michigan, the models have been performing pretty well so far, and taking account of the pattern for the last month or so, this might be. I have no reason to doubt the consensus other than for the usual reasons, sampling, uncertainty, etc.

Its hard to bet against the euro. And the euro ens are even a bit south of the op. Hell ill take a rain to snow situation haha even if its a few inches. Interested to see what the models do tonight atleast.

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Its hard to bet against the euro. And the euro ens are even a bit south of the op. Hell ill take a rain to snow situation haha even if its a few inches. Interested to see what the models do tonight atleast.

Even the Euro isn't that great of a track, at least for our area. It's a start, yes, but we do have a few days to go before we can have any solid predictions.

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I'm not throwing in the towel. I just have low expectations, for good reason. If I were to blend all the solutions together as of now, the low would still ride up into Michigan, the models have been performing pretty well so far, and taking account of the pattern for the last month or so, this might be. I have no reason to doubt the consensus other than for the usual reasons, sampling, uncertainty, etc.

Even the Euro isn't that great of a track, at least for our area. It's a start, yes, but we do have a few days to go before we can have any solid predictions.

At least for the people in the Western Lakes there has been far from a consensus there...

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Even the Euro isn't that great of a track, at least for our area. It's a start, yes, but we do have a few days to go before we can have any solid predictions.

Euro would have nice backside snow though. I don't mind missing the heaviest snow but a gfs scenario would piss me off. My theory is the same as its been for the last month. Just get some frickin snow down! We have months to worry about being a jackpot in a storm, the Christmas season only lasts so long.

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If MKX is busting out the DGEX, then I'm posting the FIM.

This obscure model may or may not have run over Angrysummons' dog.

Sorry to burst your FIM bubble, but the NOGAPS depicts the surface low traveling from DVN to MQT, closely following the DGEX. Model agreement FTL.

EDIT: At least I didn't post the map.

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Euro would have nice backside snow though. I don't mind missing the heaviest snow but a gfs scenario would piss me off. My theory is the same as its been for the last month. Just get some frickin snow down! We have months to worry about being a jackpot in a storm, the Christmas season only lasts so long.

One of the times I agree with you! However, it will still drive me nuts if the main snow band misses and goes through Oceana county. The slight elevation increase or a ridge there seems to encourage that. :)

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If MKX is busting out the DGEX, then I'm posting the FIM.

This obscure model may or may not have run over Angrysummons' dog.

Good ole FIM. Only place i ever see it mentioned is in some of the GRR afd's.. It has had it's hits though.. :sun:

JMA FTW. :weenie:

CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif

FIM/JMA/Euro ensemble mean FTW!! :weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

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You can see the Handling of the Southern vort being crucial here.

We have a very negative to very very negative west based block. With the Southern Vort on the Euro digging more and coming out the dominate wave.

You can see the block and energy in the North East.

I don't know How much further SE this can track.

If the Southern vort is over done forget it.

If the Southern vort digs a bit more with the current way the trough is progged to swing out.

Then we might be talking the Southern H5 vort max moving out of New Mexico into W-More NW Arkansas.

The Surface Reflection would obviously track more W-E at first. Probably reach it's lowest latitude around S. Central OK. Head into Western Arkansas s bit North of Central, start to move more North towards NE Arkansas as the trough is well negative and phasing. Then obviously with the Northern Stream phasing with the Southern stream the SLP would turn more NE into South Central Indiana then up to The North side of Western Ohio,

Still not good for more than a couple inches here.

Id give that track a 20% as of now. We need to see more Southern digging

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Lake enhancement along Lake Michigan in that scenario may mean one of the lakeshore communities in WI is likely the winner, unless the defo band weakens before that. It would be my dream scenario, but I don't like the chances of it happening given the envelope of possible solutions.

Definitely a possibility I would say. I would say a high chance it the low tracks into SE MI.

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If MKX is busting out the DGEX, then I'm posting the FIM.

This obscure model may or may not have run over Angrysummons' dog.

This is somewhat what I was thinking after seeing the Euro.

A stronger N. Stream energy dive into this would be nice for a more quick close off.

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/displayMap.cgi?keys=fim:&runtime=2012121612&plot_type=vort_500&fcst=102&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=236&adtfn=0&wjet=1

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You can see the Handling of the Southern vort being crucial here.

We have a very negative to very very negative west based block. With the Southern Vort on the Euro digging more and coming out the dominate wave.

You can see the block and energy in the North East.

I don't know How much further SE this can track.

If the Southern vort is over done forget it.

If the Southern vort digs a bit more with the current way the trough is progged to swing out.

Then we might be talking the Southern H5 vort max moving out of New Mexico into W-More NW Arkansas.

The Surface Reflection would obviously track more W-E at first. Probably reach it's lowest latitude around S. Central OK. Head into Western Arkansas s bit North of Central, start to move more North towards NE Arkansas as the trough is well negative and phasing. Then obviously with the Northern Stream phasing with the Southern stream the SLP would turn more NE into South Central Indiana then up to The North side of Western Ohio,

Still not good for more than a couple inches here.

Id give that track a 20% as of now. We need to see more Southern digging

Funny enough but that is basically almost what the Canadian ensemble mean does.. Tracks very close to Evansville IN and then on up to near Sandusky OH.. :o:lol:

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Pretty funny how last night there was no margin for error to the northwest it seemed around here, and now I'm worried about it being too suppressed. I have no idea what to think. First measurable snow seems like a good bet, but I won't even believe that until it happens.

I learned long ago never to dismiss either a last minute nw trend or last minute trend se towards suppression. Has happened even inside of 24hrs.. 1st half of 07-08 was well known for last minute nw trends while the 2nd half of 07-08 and more so 08-09 it went the other way towards the se.

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