XcNick Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 That graphic looks old. Kinda thought that to but, it was updated at 3:30.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Kinda thought that to but, it was updated at 3:30.... At the very least I can say that's definitely not the 12z ECMWF track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Kinda thought that to but, it was updated at 3:30.... well it has the 0z Euro run not the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 At the very least I can say that's definitely not the 12z ECMWF track Yeah MKX's map shows the Lake cutting down on totals while the Euro shows lake areas getting a bit of enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Thought DMX summed up the large scale features pretty nicely... IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE FULLY PHASED...AND THAT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TRAILING SLIGHTLY BEHIND. AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL U.S. AND IOWA THE COMPLICATED EVOLUTION OF THE TWO INTERTWINED WAVES WILL HAVE DRAMATIC IMPACTS ON THE DETAILS OF THEIR ASSOCIATED SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL GENERATE A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...WITH A LARGE SWATH OF SNOW SPREADING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE TRACK. HOWEVER THE PHASING ISSUES...COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT BEING SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...ARE WREAKING HAVOC WITH THE FORECAST OF THE STORM TRACK BEING OUTPUT BY THE VARIOUS PROGNOSTIC MODELS. A SHIFT OF 50 OR 100 MILES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HEAVIER SNOW SWATH FALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...OR NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO AND POOR CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS ISSUANCES... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS looks stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS a tad stronger as the sfc low moves into western OK through 75hr. More snow into KS as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS a tad stronger as the sfc low moves into western OK through 75hr. More snow into KS as well yeah definitely a more potent system on all levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Looks like it dumps on Hawkeye pretty nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Better looking defo band at 84hr. Sfc low sitting just west of STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Yeah MKX's map shows the Lake cutting down on totals while the Euro shows lake areas getting a bit of enhancement. My guess is they are not ready to buy into the SE trend yet. For now, I'm happy it trended SE because it gives some breathing room in case the seemingly inevitable NW trend rears its ugly head. However, if it continues it would not be very good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Sfc low goes to IKK/Gary. 992mb by that time. Eastern IA/DBQ/MSN do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I hope everyone can be cordial with these big swings. I can't believe the Euro Ensemble mean takes the SLP over Southern IL. If this energy digs enough it might come out in Western arkansas and rapidly deepen over the bootheal/far W. KY. That's the typical rain to snow here with a very warm front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z GFS Yeah pretty impressive too. Could tell early on in the southern plains this one was going to have more juice. Really think we have to watch how good of a tight baroclinic zone we get down there as that will help determining when we'll get good cyclogenesis going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'm liking the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Globals always underamp the southern vort. I really don't know why. Pretty evident now this is going to be a fairly big deal for the upper midwest/eastern Plains area. So you keep knocking the globals....what are your own track ideas then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Where does slp track on the gfs? Im stuck at work and cant check myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Healthy snowstorm for eastern plains, upper midwest. I said track, not where it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Globals always underamp the southern vort. I really don't know why. Pretty evident now this is going to be a fairly big deal for the upper midwest/eastern Plains area. Nice to finally get a good event into the sub 100hr range. Feels like we've been trying to wrestle in a big fish for the last month. Just when you think you got it you need to let out the slack and let her run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I said track, not where it will snow. Probably going to say through GRB. I'm not sure I buy that, but it could definitely cut through Milwaukee, unfortunately for us Chicago and MKE peeps. Clearly this has my attention, and it is going to be one long 72 hour period for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Probably going to say through GRB. I'm not sure I buy that, but it could definitely cut through Milwaukee, unfortunately for us Chicago and MKE peeps. Clearly this has my attention, and it is going to be one long 72 hour period for many of us. One 12Z GEFS member had it cut as far west as MKE. The furthest N/W Euro Member had it cut through Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I said track, not where it will snow. Joplin to South Bend. Big winner Freeport, IL. You heard it here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Joplin to South Bend. Big winner Freeport, IL. You heard it here first. Lake enhancement along Lake Michigan in that scenario may mean one of the lakeshore communities in WI is likely the winner, unless the defo band weakens before that. It would be my dream scenario, but I don't like the chances of it happening given the envelope of possible solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Lake enhancement along Lake Michigan in that scenario may mean one of the lakeshore communities in WI is likely the winner, unless the defo band weakens before that. It would be my dream scenario, but I don't like the chances of it happening given the envelope of possible solutions. Storm looks legit...people should do well but this won't be a dream scenario for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 If MKX is busting out the DGEX, then I'm posting the FIM. This obscure model may or may not have run over Angrysummons' dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Just for posterity's sake: From WeatherNationTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 lol, lock it up. The thread I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Just for posterity's sake: From WeatherNationTV. LOVE IT! Lock it in, please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Just for posterity's sake: From WeatherNationTV. I bet any money that doesn't verify. Detroit isn't getting 10" from this storm unless the track is more southeast than what models are projecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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