Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Skilling posted this on his FB, and this looks MUCH better, but I would like it to be moved just a bit more southeast. Better then i had thought.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z euro ensemble mean tracks it to Toledo and then Toronto..Then a new low pops near NYC to near Boston/Cape and then just off the Maine coast.. Thus a little bit se of the op run.. Furthest nw one is over Chicago while furthest east is near Cleveland. Alot more of them pops a new low near i95 between Philly and NYC. None are showing sub 980 till it is in New England. Thus a bit weaker overall. The .75 line cuts through Chicago on up the lake to near Traverse City with more ( .75 to 1.00 ) east across all of lower MI and less ( .50 to .75 ) west to E.IA up to Green Bay.. Tracking right overhead would've seemed impossible just a day or two here... I'm still convinced I won't see more than some flurries or a snow shower on the backside of this but for those still in the game these next few days are going to be one hell of a wild ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Can you link me to that? I can't find where I put it. http://rt.atmos.uiuc.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Storm Potential http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/12/intense-low-pressure-projected-to-move.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Looks like it would be one of the warmer solutions at 90hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Tracking right overhead would've seemed impossible just a day or two here... I'm still convinced I won't see more than some flurries or a snow shower on the backside of this but for those still in the game these next few days are going to be one hell of a wild ride. All about where it ejects into the Plains and to some degree the possible blocking.. A weaker system ( one that takes longer to develop/deepen ) could easily track further to the se. But yeah it is looking to be a wild ride for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z NAM takes the low through eastern IA, tons of WAA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 If it tracks further Southeast, that would mean that I would miss out on the snow entirely. Please I DO NOT want another repeat of last year's winter (which wasn't really a winter at all). Sorry if i'm ranting, still somewhat bitter after the lame winter last year. EDIT: OR if the low tracks right over Iowa, that would mean a COLD rain for me. At least it isn't ice lol. Also, the last time we've had a major winter storm was on February 1, 2011. >_> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z NAM takes the low through eastern IA, tons of WAA lol LOL NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Globals suck with this type of setup. Remember December 1st 2006? Somewhat similiar type system. Wasn't that the storm that clobbered St. Louis with that nasty ice storm while Oklahoma got a blizzard? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I gotta wonder if HPC is favoring the NAM. This is the most recent day 3 snow outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Let's see...the NAM at 84 hours vs the Euro/its 51 member ensemble suite/everything else suggesting a track farther east. I'm gonna go down with the non NAM solutions every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 CIPS centered on the 12z GFS at 96 hours has January 24-26, 1990 as the #1 analog. FWIW, I think the CIPS analogs did a good job with the MSP storm from a week or so ago. http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F096&flg= BowMe, cyclone, weatherbo, etc would be quite pleased with a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Have there actually been any lake cutters this season yet...serious question...other than on the models? Wasn't the wave tomorrow suppose to be a wound up cutter at one point? Maybe that's what we should look for. If this one late week, actually winds up and ends up in the lakes somewhere....we have the true beginning of a 'change'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Looks like it would be one of the warmer solutions at 90hrs. Impressive gradient over IL. Ranges from about +11C over southeast IL to -5C over extreme northwest IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Have there actually been any lake cutters this season yet...serious question...other than on the models? Wasn't the wave tomorrow suppose to be a wound up cutter at one point? Maybe that's what we should look for. If this one late week, actually winds up and ends up in the lakes somewhere....we have the true beginning of a 'change'. The storm that just buried MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Have there actually been any lake cutters this season yet...serious question...other than on the models? Wasn't the wave tomorrow suppose to be a wound up cutter at one point? Maybe that's what we should look for. If this one late week, actually winds up and ends up in the lakes somewhere....we have the true beginning of a 'change'. not really...MSP snowstorm looked like a candidate at mid-range but northern energy asserted early and never let go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 CIPS centered on the 12z GFS at 96 hours has January 24-26, 1990 as the #1 analog. FWIW, I think the CIPS analogs did a good job with the MSP storm from a week or so ago. http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F096&flg= BowMe, cyclone, weatherbo, etc would be quite pleased with a repeat. I'd def be happy with 6" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The storm that just buried MSP then I guess technically yes. Far western Lakes. I was thinking more about eastern WI shores to e.lakes. It just seems we've seen a lot of modeled storms in the 5-10 day range and in the sub 990 strength showing up in the central lakes area. I guess one good thing with this one, it's 96 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'd def be happy with 6" That's what she said. It'll be interesting to watch the NAM transition over the next few days. I would guess we'll see quite the shift by the time the storm arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 DVN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOCUSING ON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROPAGATING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC AND TRYING TO PHASE FURTHER ACRS THE MID CONUS FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SYSTEM WED INTO THU... ASSESSING THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS AND EVOLUTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...THERE IS A GENERAL MODEST SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ENSEMBLE SFC LOW TRACK IS GENERALLY ACRS NORTHERN OK ON WED...WITH AN EAST-NORTHEAST EJECTION FROM SOUTHWEST MO THROUGH EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN IL MID NIGHT WED NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THU...AND THEN CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO SUB 990 MB LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL LOWER MI THU NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL PATH BUT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SFC LOW INTO SOUTHWESTERN MI BY THU MORNING. THE 12Z NAM THROUGH 84 HRS APPEARS TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST PATH AND OUTLIER FROM THE REST WITH SFC LOW PLACEMENT NEAR KANSAS CITY MO BY 00Z THU. STILL FEEL ANOTHER DAY OR TWO OF RUNS AND FOR THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO COME A SHORE AND GET BETTER SAMPLED FOR MORE CONFIDENCE IN EVENTUAL TRACK CERTAINTY...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL RUNS AND SUBTLE SOUTHEAST SHIFT WOULD STILL PLACE THE DVN CWA AT RISK OF A WINTER STORM AND ACCUMULATING SNOWS OF AT LEAST 4-8 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MIDDAY THU WITH BULK OF ACCUMS OCCURRING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. THE SOUTHEAST SHIFT ALSO HAS THE PRECIP STARTING AS SNOW OVER MORE REAL ESTATE EARLIER WITH ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA EITHER STARTING AS ALL SNOW OR DOING A QUICK TURNOVER BY MID WED EVENING. BULK OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUNS SHOULD BE EXITING OUT OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA BY 00Z FRI IF NOT EARLIER. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TO FOLLOW DEF ZONE PRECIP ON THU FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL. INTENSE LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS AND MID MS RVR VALLEY INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE MEDIUM RANGE RUNS STILL LOOKS TO SUGGEST SFC WINDS SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS UP TO AT LEAST 45 MPH INTO EARLY THU EVENING. AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS...CURRENTLY PROGGED AIRMASS TO ARRIVE SUGGEST LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS THU NIGHT...WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND ANY CLEARING POSSIBLY ALLOWING A FEW UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO OCCUR BY EARLY FRI MORNING. HIGHS ON FRI HAVING TROUBLE RECOVERING OUT OF THE 20S IF WRAP AROUND STRATOCU CLOAKS THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I wouldnt mind a slight NW shift now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro ens were still southeast of the op correct? Also the question becomes what happens when this thing gets sampled. When is that btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean at 96 hours. Looks good for ORD and MKE folk. EDIT: slightly beaten to the punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 From MKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Do NWS offices really use the DGEX? Serious question. Oh, and congrats Suckville on the snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 That graphic looks old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Do NWS offices really use the DGEX? Serious question. Oh, and congrats Suckville on the snow map. best new post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 All about where it ejects into the Plains and to some degree the possible blocking.. A weaker system ( one that takes longer to develop/deepen ) could easily track further to the se. But yeah it is looking to be a wild ride for sure. I'm somewhat thankful I don't have the stress of dealing with that right now... I'm just here enjoying tracking a storm for once. Let's see...the NAM at 84 hours vs the Euro/its 51 member ensemble suite/everything else suggesting a track farther east. I'm gonna go down with the non NAM solutions every time. Playing the odds is overrated... gotta be like Joe B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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