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December 20-22 Winter Storm (Blizzard?) Potential

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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cyclone77

cyclone77

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Now that the whole 00z suite is in I'll make my first call for the QC. Looks like the consensus is a rainy night Wed night followed by a quick changeover to heavy wet snow around daybreak Thu morning. Probably looking at a 2-4" type event at this point, but it will be associated with very strong winds. The NW DVN cwa is looking like it will be pretty close to the jackpot zone. Looks great for Hawkeye.

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BadgerFan

BadgerFan

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:12 AM, Geos said:

Wow! Sounds like the 12z GFS run. Low passing near GYY I take it.

From about Dodge SW to Madison and then points N and E the 850's stay below freezing through the entire event. Milwaukee looks to start out as rain and then transitions to snow by HR 69. I don't have access to surface temps or anything, just 850's.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:19 AM, Brewers said:

Not sure what the thermals look like on the Euro, but I dont see why we cant get 2-4 inches of snow.

2-4 is possible if we get the best of the deformation zone on the back end, but it would still be 6-7/10ths rain. Even more than that for Geos. Hey, likely to get accumulation at least.

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Powerball

Powerball

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:18 AM, Hoosier said:

Well, you're playing with fire to blindly follow an outlier this close in. The wrestling analogy from earlier was kinda lame but it's true. Regardless, I'd wait until the 12z cycle to begin to nail this down.

It would be best to wait until the 00z runs before nailing anything down, when the entire system is fully sampled.

That said, I think it's safe to say at this point anyone SE of a Kansas City-QC-Chicago-Bad Axe line can forget any significant synoptic snows.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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0z ECMWF Text List

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hm8

hm8

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:25 AM, Chicago WX said:

GFS and NAM aren't exactly alike...so what's the real specifics on the 0z Euro track? Seriously.

NE-ish IL (broad low, tough to tell where exactly the center is, somewhere around Pontiac) to Holland to Midland into the Huron...

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snowlover2

snowlover2

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:29 AM, Chicago Storm said:

0z ECMWF Text List

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Dayton? Just curious about wrap around/LES.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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To all the SE MI folks lamenting the euro going NW, whats funny is the thicknesses fall and 850s get colder FASTER this run than the 12z run, from a snow standpoint, this run is probably the same as the 12z. Does anyone know...are we using 540 thickness as the rain to snow changeover with this storm? I know it varies based on other conditions, I use 540 as the baseline. FWIW, DTW has 0.23" of precip after thickness falls below 536 per that Euro output posted.

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Powerball

Powerball

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:34 AM, michsnowfreak said:

To all the SE MI folks lamenting the euro going NW, whats funny is the thicknesses fall and 850s get colder FASTER this run than the 12z run, from a snow standpoint, this run is probably the same as the 12z. Does anyone know...are we using 540 thickness as the rain to snow changeover with this storm? I know it varies based on other conditions, I use 540 as the baseline. FWIW, DTW has 0.23" of precip after thickness falls below 536 per that Euro output posted.

Not to get caught up in the specifics, but keep in mind a stronger/further NW storm will also mean a more dry slotting despite a faster arrival of the cold air.

BTW, around here, the 1300m thickness line is usually a good indicator of the rain/snow line.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:34 AM, snowlover2 said:

Dayton? Just curious about wrap around/LES.

THU 12Z 20-DEC   7.6	 8.7    1004	  83	  97    0.16	 559	 556   
THU 18Z 20-DEC  11.5	 8.3	 995	  88	  83    0.37	 550	 554   
FRI 00Z 21-DEC   1.3    -7.7    1004	  69	  75    0.04	 534	 531   
FRI 06Z 21-DEC  -3.1    -9.8    1008	  61	  98    0.02	 531	 524   
FRI 12Z 21-DEC  -4.8    -9.4    1012	  64	  85    0.01	 533	 524

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Harry

Harry

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:22 AM, Harry said:

Pretty wild that the euro is back to EXACTLY where it was 2 nights ago. Track to Benton Harbor and then Bay City..

  On 12/18/2012 at 6:25 AM, Chicago WX said:

GFS and NAM aren't exactly alike...so what's the real specifics on the 0z Euro track? Seriously.

See above.. :)

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:34 AM, michsnowfreak said:

To all the SE MI folks lamenting the euro going NW, whats funny is the thicknesses fall and 850s get colder FASTER this run than the 12z run, from a snow standpoint, this run is probably the same as the 12z. Does anyone know...are we using 540 thickness as the rain to snow changeover with this storm? I know it varies based on other conditions, I use 540 as the baseline. FWIW, DTW has 0.23" of precip after thickness falls below 536 per that Euro output posted.

Josh, you know how much I care, so what's it look like for MBY? :)

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:38 AM, BadgerFan said:

Joe, what about Oshkosh?

THU 06Z 20-DEC   1.4    -2.7    1011	  95	  99    0.07	 548	 539   
THU 12Z 20-DEC   0.9    -3.7    1002	  96	 100    0.47	 542	 541   
THU 18Z 20-DEC   0.9    -5.2	 995	  95	  99    0.42	 532	 536   
FRI 00Z 21-DEC   0.1    -7.6    1000	  87	  95    0.24	 529	 529   
FRI 06Z 21-DEC  -2.8    -8.8    1008	  78	  72    0.03	 531	 524

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chase_stormz

chase_stormz

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:41 AM, Chicago Storm said: 

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.4 -2.7 1011	 95	 99 0.07	 548	 539
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.9 -3.7 1002	 96	 100 0.47	 542	 541
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.9 -5.2	 995	 95	 99 0.42	 532	 536
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.1 -7.6 1000	 87	 95 0.24	 529	 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.8 -8.8 1008	 78	 72 0.03	 531	 524

chi storm no one answered my question earlier lol. thunderstorm potential with this storm is ______?

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:38 AM, blackrock said:

Josh, you know how much I care, so what's it look like for MBY? :)

Well...Im not great at reading those things, but for MKG thats 0.37" precip after thickness falls below 535

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.2 0.4 1012 79 99 0.02 552 543

THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.8 1.9 1001 92 90 0.31 547 547

THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.9 4.6 989 96 98 0.20 537 546

FRI 00Z 21-DEC 2.0 -3.8 988 95 87 0.31 525 535

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.7 -7.5 999 81 99 0.24 527 527

FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.3 -9.4 1007 73 82 0.11 531 525

FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.3 -9.9 1013 73 14 0.01 538 528

SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.8 -7.0 1017 72 9 0.01 543 530

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BadgerFan

BadgerFan

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  On 12/18/2012 at 6:41 AM, Chicago Storm said: 

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.4 -2.7 1011	 95	 99 0.07	 548	 539
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.9 -3.7 1002	 96	 100 0.47	 542	 541
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.9 -5.2	 995	 95	 99 0.42	 532	 536
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.1 -7.6 1000	 87	 95 0.24	 529	 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.8 -8.8 1008	 78	 72 0.03	 531	 524

Thanks. Really, really close to an all snow event.

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