December 20-22 Winter Storm (Blizzard?) Potential

[Chicago WX]

  On 12/17/2012 at 5:28 PM, afterimage said:

For part of Indiana, do you believe? At least a dusting or so for a white Christmas.

We'll get some wrap around love, but it probably won't be much.

[Geos]

Quote from Skilling regarding the FIM model. Anyone have any comments on that model?

  Quote

Here's a snapshot of the storm from the Weather Service's new and experimental global model--the "FIM" model. This panel verifies at noon Thursday. Verification scores on this model, which has been run in a developmental mode since 2008, indication accuracy which has been close to and, in thanks to upgrades in the past year, occasionally surpassing the Weather Service's GFS operational model.

Would post the image, but not sure if it's free or not.

http://www.facebook.com/#!/TomSkilling?fref=ts

[cyclone77]

  On 12/17/2012 at 5:33 PM, Chicago WX said:

12z Ukie at 72 hours.

Similar to it's placement on yesterday's 12z.

[cyclone77]

Seeing that the Ukie held it's ground makes me wonder if the Euro will do the same. If the Euro holds this is really gonna get interesting lol.

[Chicago WX]

FIM is public/free. Knock yourselves out: http://fim.noaa.gov

[gosaints]

  On 12/17/2012 at 5:35 PM, Geos said:

Quote from Skilling regarding the FIM model. Anyone have any comments on that model?

Would post the image, but not sure if it's free or not.

http://www.facebook....killing?fref=ts

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim&domain=236&run_time=17+Dec+2012+-+12Z

there is a model link. Looks similar to the GFS

[Hoosier]

  On 12/17/2012 at 5:31 PM, Alek said:

top gust forecast contest

ORD - 49

MKE- 57

I'm too chicken to throw out numbers yet but if the GFS is correct then both places may exceed what they did for GHD.

[Thundersnow12]

  On 12/17/2012 at 5:42 PM, Hoosier said:

I'm too chicken to throw out numbers yet but if the GFS is correct then both places may exceed what they did for GHD.

I think that may be hard to do. What was ORD's highest gust with GHD? 58mph? 70mph lakeside.

[Chicago WX]

  On 12/17/2012 at 5:44 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

I think that may be hard to do. What was ORD's highest gust with GHD? 58mph? 70mph lakeside.

61mph at ORD

METAR KORD 020351Z 05031G45KT 1/4SM R14R/1000V1600FT +TSSN BLSN BKN001 OVC009 M07/M07 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 05053/0301 TSB48 SLP077 SNINCR 1/9 P0012 T10671072 $

Makes me tingly looking at that ob.

[A-L-E-K]

not a ton of spread with the gfs members...most show a decently wound up system

[Hoosier]

  On 12/17/2012 at 5:44 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

I think that may be hard to do. What was ORD's highest gust with GHD? 58mph? 70mph lakeside.

61 mph at ORD and 60 mph at MKE. 12z GFS wind fields would give both places a good chance to exceed those levels, whether it verifies is another matter.

[Geos]

  On 12/17/2012 at 5:39 PM, Chicago WX said:

FIM is public/free. Knock yourselves out: http://fim.noaa.gov

  On 12/17/2012 at 5:41 PM, gosaints said:

http://fim.noaa.gov/... Dec 2012 - 12Z

there is a model link. Looks similar to the GFS

Thanks!

[stag]

^{Hey guys, I am apoloizimg up front . I am not a met..}

^{Really curious about at what time frame we can look at models and be pretty confident of path. The fact that NWS in wisc. has put up watches makes me wonder if that confidence on their part is there. I live in northern lower pen. of mich. and realize any variation could be a huge outcome in weather I get. I have heard local met. generally prefer the european. Any thoughts ? Thanks.}

[LanceJA91]

Skilling posted this via facebook....

SOUTH.SOUTH.SOUTH please.

[Thundersnow12]

Euro holds serve...maybe even a tad southeast in IN.

[cyclone77]

  On 12/17/2012 at 6:12 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

Euro holds serve...maybe even a tad southeast in IN.

Euro and Ukie vs NCEP lol.

[harrisale]

Toronto folks, what are we thinking with this one? Rain switching over to snow, 3-4" (7-10cm) is what I'm thinking. A more south easterly track would do us better.

Combined winds + snow would be the best storm we've had in a while.

[Chicago WX]

  On 12/17/2012 at 6:12 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

Euro holds serve...maybe even a tad southeast in IN.

Interesting battle shaping up.

[wisconsinwx]

  On 12/17/2012 at 6:12 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

Euro holds serve...maybe even a tad southeast in IN.

That's important because the GFS Ensembles looked to have trended northwest. The Euro Ensembles might be very telling. If they hold serve, I'm far from throwing in the towel, if they shift northwest, backside couple inches is probably the best Chicago and Milwaukee can expect.

[daddylonglegs]

drool... *clown maps are always accurate*

[A-L-E-K]

  On 12/17/2012 at 6:16 PM, Chicago WX said:

Interesting battle shaping up.

sensible weather impacts aren't exactly massive here but it's a fun showdown for sure.

[cyclone77]

  On 12/17/2012 at 6:18 PM, daddylonglegs said:

drool... *clown maps are always accurate*

LSE joined MKE and issued WSW as well.

[gosaints]

La crosse just issued watches across their southeast counties.

[Justin]

I'd sure like to see a bump SE on the gfs, but the euro models holding makes me feel good.

This is a system where you don't want to nws be on the SE half of the heavy snow band being progged. Id feel a lot better if I were in cedar rapids and dubuque. We might do okay here though as this baby winds up.

I 'm cautiously optimistic on this.

[gosaints]

GFS ensemble members definetly west of 6z run.

[michsnowfreak]

If anything the euro looks a tick SE of its 00z run, perhaps a carbon copy of yesterdays 12z run? Has rain here with temps bubbling into the 40s as the L passes, but then a very nice deform snow that will give us a few inches. The GEM appears to have backside snow as well. I will take that deform zone and run with it if I could lock these scenarios in with backside snow, even knowing I am missing the best snow to my NW. We have 4 months for DTW to be the jackpot of a snowstorm...but only a week to muster some snow for Christmas.

[snowstormcanuck]

  On 12/17/2012 at 6:15 PM, harrisale said:

Toronto folks, what are we thinking with this one? Rain switching over to snow, 3-4" (7-10cm) is what I'm thinking. A more south easterly track would do us better.

Combined winds + snow would be the best storm we've had in a while.

Maybe in Guelph because of LES. Not even a remote chance of the low end of that in Toronto. A dusting to a coating tops in the backwash snow. Maybe a bit more locally if we catch the tail ends of a few streamers.

[Chicago Storm]

Back by popular demand...

12z ECMWF Text List

  Reveal hidden contents

LSE:

THU 06Z 20-DEC -0.2 -6.4 1016 93 100 0.05 545 532
THU 12Z 20-DEC -1.6 -7.1 1014 80 98 0.12 541 529
THU 18Z 20-DEC -2.6 -7.2 1014 61 54 0.02 536 526

DSM:

THU 00Z 20-DEC 1.4 -3.1 1013 88 100 0.03 549 539
THU 06Z 20-DEC 0.5 -5.1 1013 92 100 0.21 547 537
THU 12Z 20-DEC -2.6 -6.9 1014 75 99 0.18 541 529
THU 18Z 20-DEC -3.1 -6.1 1018 58 12 0.01 537 523

CID:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 0.9 -3.5 1012 98 100 0.22 549 539
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.3 -5.1 1009 92 100 0.25 543 536
THU 18Z 20-DEC -2.3 -6.1 1012 68 81 0.12 537 528

GRB:

THU 06Z 20-DEC -0.1 -5.1 1016 88 100 0.01 548 534
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.4 -6.0 1012 93 97 0.12 544 534
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.2 -6.4 1008 92 99 0.21 538 532
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -0.6 -7.9 1008 82 100 0.13 534 528
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -6.6 -7.3 1012 72 24 0.01 531 522

SBM:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.4 -4.0 1016 95 100 0.06 549 537
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.1 -4.2 1010 97 99 0.18 546 537
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.0 -5.6 1005 95 98 0.31 540 536
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.2 -7.2 1005 87 99 0.16 534 530
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -5.9 -7.3 1011 76 28 0.03 532 523

MSN:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 0.7 -3.8 1014 98 99 0.09 549 538
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.6 -4.2 1010 97 99 0.21 544 537
THU 18Z 20-DEC -0.3 -6.4 1007 89 98 0.27 538 533
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -3.1 -7.6 1010 72 76 0.09 534 526

MKE:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 2.6 -2.4 1014 93 98 0.07 551 540
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.5 -2.6 1008 99 98 0.25 546 540
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.3 -5.0 1002 97 99 0.34 540 539
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.6 -6.7 1004 86 98 0.21 534 531
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -5.6 -7.0 1011 74 31 0.04 532 523

DVN:

THU 00Z 20-DEC 3.1 -0.6 1014 80 100 0.01 553 542
THU 06Z 20-DEC 2.1 -1.9 1010 98 99 0.20 551 543
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.0 -3.3 1006 98 98 0.40 545 540
THU 18Z 20-DEC -0.7 -5.8 1008 86 100 0.27 538 532
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -4.2 -6.7 1015 66 30 0.03 535 524

RFD:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 2.3 -2.0 1012 94 100 0.08 552 542
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.2 -2.2 1006 99 100 0.35 546 542
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.3 -5.5 1003 93 99 0.28 539 536
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -1.9 -7.3 1009 74 92 0.12 534 527

ORD:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.7 -0.5 1012 87 100 0.02 554 544
THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.0 0.1 1004 96 97 0.31 548 545
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.9 -1.3 999 98 100 0.26 541 542
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.0 -6.6 1003 86 93 0.31 534 531
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -5.5 -6.6 1012 73 36 0.04 533 523

MDW:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.8 0.2 1011 85 100 0.01 554 545
THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.5 1.7 1003 94 96 0.29 549 546
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.3 0.3 997 97 99 0.25 542 544
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.2 -6.4 1002 87 94 0.36 534 532
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -4.3 -6.7 1012 70 45 0.05 533 523

PIA:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.0 2.7 1008 94 97 0.24 555 549
THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.0 4.6 1001 97 93 0.19 548 547
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.1 -5.3 1002 94 100 0.31 538 537
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -1.6 -6.7 1013 58 54 0.13 536 526

DEC:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 7.2 7.2 1006 93 100 0.31 558 553
THU 12Z 20-DEC 9.9 8.4 999 97 80 0.29 552 553
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.8 0.3 998 96 54 0.40 540 541
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -0.7 -7.1 1012 61 91 0.16 536 527

STL:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 10.9 9.4 1003 97 72 0.35 559 556
THU 12Z 20-DEC 11.9 8.6 997 98 66 0.21 551 554
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.5 -6.3 1007 93 98 0.25 539 533
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.3 -7.1 1018 51 16 0.03 539 525

VPZ:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.6 1.5 1011 82 99 0.02 556 547
THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.5 4.5 1002 96 92 0.34 551 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 8.1 5.4 994 98 95 0.19 544 548
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.4 -5.7 998 98 100 0.54 533 534
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.0 -7.7 1010 71 89 0.16 533 525

LAF:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 6.0 4.2 1009 85 85 0.12 558 551
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.7 7.1 1002 96 89 0.48 554 553
THU 18Z 20-DEC 11.4 8.1 993 97 86 0.30 546 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.1 -5.9 1001 91 99 0.34 534 533
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.6 -6.9 1012 57 75 0.06 534 525

IND:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 7.9 6.2 1010 78 79 0.03 561 553
THU 12Z 20-DEC 8.0 8.2 1004 95 97 0.43 557 554
THU 18Z 20-DEC 12.2 9.0 994 97 68 0.27 549 554
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.2 -5.8 1001 93 98 0.20 535 534
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -1.8 -7.5 1012 59 90 0.08 535 525

OKK:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 5.3 4.2 1011 80 95 0.12 559 550
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.3 6.0 1004 94 98 0.40 556 553
THU 18Z 20-DEC 11.7 9.4 994 85 81 0.16 548 553
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.4 -4.6 996 97 97 0.32 532 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -1.7 -7.7 1009 68 96 0.17 533 526

FWA:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 5.8 4.0 1006 92 99 0.29 556 551
THU 18Z 20-DEC 10.3 8.7 996 85 68 0.28 549 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 6.3 2.7 988 94 40 0.29 532 542
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.8 -7.1 1003 88 98 0.21 531 529
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -3.6 -7.6 1013 73 26 0.04 533 523

GRR:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.9 -0.4 1016 82 87 0.02 554 541
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.0 -0.7 1009 94 99 0.18 551 544
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.0 1.4 1000 98 86 0.21 545 545
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.4 -2.9 995 95 99 0.48 535 540
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -0.7 -7.9 1001 86 95 0.40 529 528
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -2.9 -8.8 1010 79 30 0.06 532 524

DTW:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 3.1 0.6 1011 86 100 0.03 555 546
THU 18Z 20-DEC 4.0 2.8 1001 94 78 0.37 550 550
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 7.0 6.1 990 97 82 0.33 540 548
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.4 -4.5 990 92 77 0.13 527 535
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.2 -8.2 1002 79 92 0.15 529 527
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.2 -8.9 1007 64 80 0.04 532 526
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.5 -10.2 1013 67 17 0.02 537 527

DET:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 3.7 -0.1 1012 79 100 0.01 556 546
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.7 2.2 1002 92 89 0.31 551 549
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 6.5 5.7 991 96 94 0.28 541 549
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.9 -2.5 988 95 73 0.16 526 536
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.3 -8.2 1000 81 93 0.14 528 528
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.9 -8.7 1006 63 86 0.05 531 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.0 -10.1 1012 66 17 0.02 536 527

TDZ:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.3 4.2 1009 83 97 0.03 557 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 6.2 5.8 1000 94 82 0.62 552 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 10.1 5.4 989 96 53 0.26 539 548
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.0 -6.5 994 89 98 0.08 528 533
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.2 -8.4 1005 73 98 0.10 530 526
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.0 -9.4 1010 58 66 0.01 533 526

CLE:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.7 3.9 1003 86 99 0.19 554 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 8.9 6.8 993 92 97 0.25 546 552
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.4 -4.8 992 85 84 0.06 530 536
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.6 -7.5 1001 77 100 0.16 529 528
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.9 -8.3 1005 71 99 0.09 530 526
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.8 -9.3 1010 68 83 0.03 533 525
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -0.9 -10.2 1013 71 16 0.01 538 527
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.0 -7.3 1016 73 47 0.01 542 529

DAY:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.3 8.2 1007 73 90 0.02 559 554
THU 18Z 20-DEC 9.1 9.3 999 95 74 0.61 554 555
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 5.8 -3.1 996 89 45 0.14 538 541
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -0.1 -6.8 1005 80 96 0.08 533 529
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -4.3 -7.9 1013 62 56 0.02 533 523

CMH:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 7.8 7.9 1002 91 99 0.41 557 555
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 10.7 3.9 995 91 50 0.26 544 548
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.2 -6.2 1002 83 99 0.04 533 532
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.8 -9.0 1009 67 98 0.06 532 525
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -2.0 -9.7 1013 63 30 0.01 535 525

YKF:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.7 2.5 1010 71 79 0.01 553 545
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.4 -0.2 1000 89 92 0.11 547 547
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 4.4 1.5 991 98 48 0.34 532 540
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.6 -3.9 990 99 92 0.10 525 533
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.2 -5.7 995 87 97 0.10 525 530
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -2.7 -8.6 1002 81 93 0.06 529 527
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -3.8 -9.6 1005 77 58 0.01 531 528

YYZ:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.6 1.6 1011 77 77 0.01 553 544
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.0 -0.7 1001 83 100 0.07 548 547
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 4.3 1.4 993 93 65 0.28 536 541
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 2.7 -4.5 991 89 94 0.07 526 534
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.2 -4.6 992 92 97 0.07 524 531
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.3 -6.2 998 81 94 0.07 527 529
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -2.1 -9.3 1002 75 82 0.02 529 528

[Hoosier]

^That is some serious CAA...some places in IN have 850 mb drops of 15C in 6 hours

[wisconsinwx]

Some of the heaviest, wettest snow/slush Bowme and I could ever want on the Euro; with 850 temps well below 0C, but surface temps between 0 and 2C most of the time, what percentage of that would probably fall as snow? I'm thinking maybe half, and it would be low ratio stuff at that. Slow it down or speed it up so more of it would fall overnight, not that time of day really matters on the second shortest day of the year.