Will Toronto see an overnight low of -20C (-4F) this winter and Ottawa a daytime high of -20C (-4F) this winter?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Two years ago I started a thread similar to this one and watched as Don Sutherland and others mets chimed in on the possibility of these two Canadian cities hitting a low of 0F (Toronto) and adaytime high of 0F (Ottawa). As the start of astronomical winter approaches, i thought I'd start a similar thread and see what people have to say/predict. Below are the benchmarks I'm looking for this winter.

1) Will Toronto, Ontario record a nighttime low of -20C (-4F) and experience a snowstorm which drops 6 inches (15cm) of snow in 24 hours?

2) Will Ottawa, Ontario record a daytime high of -20C (-4F) and experience a snowstorm which drops a foot (30cm) of snow in 24 hours

The cold temperature anomalies were non existant last winter for the most part, so it will be interesting to see if mother nature can deliever this year. Note that these are temperatures without the windchill factored in.

[blizzard1024]

Two years ago I started a thread similar to this one and watched as Don Sutherland and others mets chimed in on the possibility of these two Canadian cities hitting a low of 0F (Toronto) and adaytime high of 0F (Ottawa). As the start of astronomical winter approaches, i thought I'd start a similar thread and see what people have to say/predict. Below are the benchmarks I'm looking for this winter.

1) Will Toronto, Ontario record a nighttime low of -20C (-4F) and experience a snowstorm which drops 6 inches (15cm) of snow in 24 hours?

2) Will Ottawa, Ontario record a daytime high of -20C (-4F) and experience a snowstorm which drops a foot (30cm) of snow in 24 hours

The cold temperature anomalies were non existant last winter for the most part, so it will be interesting to see if mother nature can deliever this year. Note that these are temperatures without the windchill factored in.

The snowstorm is tough...you never know about storm tracks. What is climo for winter occurrences of -20C or less for minimums at Toronto and

days at or below -20C in Ottawa?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The snowstorm is tough...you never know about storm tracks. What is climo for winter occurrences of -20C or less for minimums at Toronto and

days at or below -20C in Ottawa?

Generally, Toronto usually hits -20C as a morning low once or twice a season, Ottawa much more often. These have become less common over the past 6 or 7 years, with 2008-2009 and January 2011 being the exceptions. A couple of years ago I did a study of mean January temperatures in Ottawa and there was steep rise from January 2006 onwards, with January 2009 and January 2011 being the only slight dents in the trend.

[blizzard1024]

Generally, Toronto usually hits -20C as a morning low once or twice a season, Ottawa much more often. These have become less common over the past 6 or 7 years, with 2008-2009 and January 2011 being the exceptions. A couple of years ago I did a study of mean January temperatures in Ottawa and there was steep rise from January 2006 onwards, with January 2009 and January 2011 being the only slight dents in the trend.

winter 2009-2010 and even 2010-11 were colder farther south and mild in canada...then we know about last year. Hard to say...models keep putting off

the cold air to beyond 7 days. It never seems to get here. I would bet against it based on recent winters....but it is a guess.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

winter 2009-2010 and even 2010-11 were colder farther south and mild in canada...then we know about last year. Hard to say...models keep putting off

the cold air to beyond 7 days. It never seems to get here. I would bet against it based on recent winters....but it is a guess.

I can't help thinking that this is the wave of the future. I too would bet against the above being achieved, but it will be interesting to see what develops as we move forward. The 12z GFS showed a major cooldown after the 20th, but the 18z partially backed off on this.

I have a feeling that it will be western Canada that gets the cold this winter. Environment Canada has forecast a colder winter in the west and a mild winter in eastern canada. Judging from the model trends, it looks like they could be on the mark. I can't believe how bad mets like JB have been in recent years. I mean he has been exceptionally bad ever since he left accuweather. Also, when he calls for snow and cold in his tweets I have to remember that his message his aimed largely at the Mid-Atlantic states, where the majority of his clients are.

Will look forward to more input from you, Don and other mets.

Off-topic, but the weather hardly seems important on a day like today...

[donsutherland1]

Two years ago I started a thread similar to this one and watched as Don Sutherland and others mets chimed in on the possibility of these two Canadian cities hitting a low of 0F (Toronto) and adaytime high of 0F (Ottawa). As the start of astronomical winter approaches, i thought I'd start a similar thread and see what people have to say/predict. Below are the benchmarks I'm looking for this winter.

1) Will Toronto, Ontario record a nighttime low of -20C (-4F) and experience a snowstorm which drops 6 inches (15cm) of snow in 24 hours?

2) Will Ottawa, Ontario record a daytime high of -20C (-4F) and experience a snowstorm which drops a foot (30cm) of snow in 24 hours

The cold temperature anomalies were non existant last winter for the most part, so it will be interesting to see if mother nature can deliever this year. Note that these are temperatures without the windchill factored in.

Based on my most persistent analog cases adjusted for the observed ongoing warming, my thoughts are as follows:

Toronto:

Overnight low of -20°C: Yes (67% probability)

15 cm snowfall over 24 hours: No

Ottawa:

Daytime high of -20°C: No, but it's almost a 50-50 proposition

15 cm snowfall over 24 hours: Yes (67% probability)

P.S. Do you know whether Environment Canada is going to fix its climate data for Ottawa. Daily data for 2012 is not available.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Don, EC recently changed the way they gather data at Ottawa. Here is the link to the new recording station.

http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=49568&hlyRange=2011-12-14|2012-05-27&Year=2012&Month=12&Day=1

I gather the European model looks good for both Toronto and Ottawa next weekend.

[donsutherland1]

Don, EC recently changed the way they gather data at Ottawa. Here is the link to the new recording station.

http://climate.weath...&Month=12&Day=1

I gather the European model looks good for both Toronto and Ottawa next weekend.

Thank you, Ottawa Blizzard. I bookmarked the page.

[donsutherland1]

With regard to the idea of Ottawa picking up 6" snow in 24 hours, I believe Friday has a good chance of seeing such a snowfall. My early thoughts are that Ottawa will likely receive 6"-12" (15.2 cm-30.4 cm) snow in the period running from Thursday night into Saturday morning.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

With regard to the idea of Ottawa picking up 6" snow in 24 hours, I believe Friday has a good chance of seeing such a snowfall. My early thoughts are that Ottawa will likely receive 6"-12" (15.2 cm-30.4 cm) snow in the period running from Thursday night into Saturday morning.

Don, what are you thinking for Toronto, bearing in mind that I live in the north end of Toronto. The 0z NAM looked promising. I'd honestly be happy with 2" of accumulation and some big flakes in the air making it look a lot like Christmas.

[donsutherland1]

Don, what are you thinking for Toronto, bearing in mind that I live in the north end of Toronto. The 0z NAM looked promising. I'd honestly be happy with 2" of accumulation and some big flakes in the air making it look a lot like Christmas.

It's a much tougher call. I'm thinking an inch right now, but a somewhat earlier changeover could lead to perhaps 2". The post-Christmas storm could bring a larger snowfall there.

P.S. I didn't realize you had moved to Toronto. I hope you are enjoying everything that Toronto has to offer.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It's a much tougher call. I'm thinking an inch right now, but a somewhat earlier changeover could lead to perhaps 2". The post-Christmas storm could bring a larger snowfall there.

P.S. I didn't realize you had moved to Toronto. I hope you are enjoying everything that Toronto has to offer.

It's okay. I was born and raised here and moved back for school. I miss Ottawa though - it has a better climate and a better geographic location. The people are also (generally) friendlier! You could say my heart is still there! Wouldn't mind moving back some day. I still have friends up there and so visit quite regularly.

[donsutherland1]

It's okay. I was born and raised here and moved back for school. I miss Ottawa though - it has a better climate and a better geographic location. The people are also (generally) friendlier! You could say my heart is still there! Wouldn't mind moving back some day. I still have friends up there and so visit quite regularly.

I see.

Hopefully, winter will deliver abundant snowfall and cold to the Toronto area later this month and afterward.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Well, Ottawa has seen a snowfall of over a foot, while downtown Toronto has seen a 6" snowfall.

Now it's just the temperatures we have to work on. An overnight low of -20C (-4F) still seems out of reach for Toronto, as does a daytime high of -4F in Ottawa. We'll see what January has to offer!

[snowstormcanuck]

We'd have a good shot at the -20c overnight low with the upcoming dropping of the PV, but the problem here is LE cloudiness at night insulating us. I'll say we'll get close, but just miss the mark.

[snowstormcanuck]

Overnight low of -20°C: Yes (67% probability)

15 cm snowfall over 24 hours: No

Wow, categorical "no" for 6" in 24 hrs. On average, Toronto averages about 2 of those per winter.

Indicative of what a rut we've been in the last several years.

[donsutherland1]

Wow, categorical "no" for 6" in 24 hrs. On average, Toronto averages about 2 of those per winter.

Indicative of what a rut we've been in the last several years.

I very much hope that I'll be incorrect. Toronto hasn't done well lately. Hopefully, things will change this winter.

[HurricaneJosh]

Generally, Toronto usually hits -20C as a morning low once or twice a season, Ottawa much more often.

This stat surprised me. I had always thought Toronto was much colder, and went well below zero Fahrenheit several times a season. Interesting.

[snowstormcanuck]

We'd have a good shot at the -20c overnight low with the upcoming dropping of the PV, but the problem here is LE cloudiness at night insulating us. I'll say we'll get close, but just miss the mark.

 

 

lol, this will end up being way off. Models really backed off on that cold shot.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

lol, this will end up being way off. Models really backed off on that cold shot.

 

No kidding. Not a good sign. I remember on Christmas Eve 2001 I was watching the Weather Network and they were forecasting a high of -12C in Toronto for a week later. It appeared that winter was about to arrive. Two days later the forecast changed to a high of +2C. It set the tone for that winter. Hopefully this isn't the case here.

[cbmclean]

No kidding. Not a good sign. I remember on Christmas Eve 2001 I was watching the Weather Network and they were forecasting a high of -12C in Toronto for a week later. It appeared that winter was about to arrive. Two days later the forecast changed to a high of +2C. It set the tone for that winter. Hopefully this isn't the case here.

 

Ah that was a nasty year for winter weather enthusiasts in Eastern North America 

 

Man I had been away from detailed examination of the long range forecasts for much of the holidays and my return today has not exactly been pleasant.  Of course nothing is set in stone this far out but large numbers of people are apparently ready to wave the white flag for January, which is quite scary.  I even hear dark rumors that Joe Bastardi is literally depressed and is writing off the entire winter and from what I have heard, when that man is forecasting warm anomalies you'd better watch out for temperatures which are capable of causing houses to spontaneously combust.

 

As an aside for you Canadians, you guys need to understand something.  Whenever we have a warm period in winter down here in the US you cannot imagine how often it is explained to us by our Mets that our mild temps are due to the jetstream/AO/NAO/Polar Vortex/world communism "locking up" all of the "cold air" across Canada.  When this happens and I go examine the temperature anomalies in your country one might expect to see you know cold, in the form of negative anomalies, seeing as you are apparently selfishly hoarding all of the "cold air".  However, I quite often find warm anomalies up there as well all the way from Toronto to mainland Nunavut and beyond.  So apparently you are not only hoarding the cold, but you aren't using it for yourselves.  Quite rude I would say.

 

So for at least the next two weeks after this one, when apparently the Pacific Ocean is going to burst into flames and spew superheated air all through the lower 48, I am going to check Shepherds Bay in Nunavut to make sure that some use is actually being made of this cold air that is being "locked away".  I had better not see any of this -25 C bullcrap up there.  I expect -40 C at the warmest.  Everybody got me?

[blizzard1024]

just went below 10F at my house for the first time this winter. latest ever my records and at our local airport.. If we torch, melt

down and don't reload we will be at the end of January already with just barely 3 weeks of "winter". I have about 1 foot of snow

on the ground and it is gorgeous. gonna be painful to see it melt... 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Ah that was a nasty year for winter weather enthusiasts in Eastern North America

Man I had been away from detailed examination of the long range forecasts for much of the holidays and my return today has not exactly been pleasant. Of course nothing is set in stone this far out but large numbers of people are apparently ready to wave the white flag for January, which is quite scary. I even hear dark rumors that Joe Bastardi is literally depressed and is writing off the entire winter and from what I have heard, when that man is forecasting warm anomalies you'd better watch out for temperatures which are capable of causing houses to spontaneously combust.

As an aside for you Canadians, you guys need to understand something. Whenever we have a warm period in winter down here in the US you cannot imagine how often it is explained to us by our Mets that our mild temps are due to the jetstream/AO/NAO/Polar Vortex/world communism "locking up" all of the "cold air" across Canada. When this happens and I go examine the temperature anomalies in your country one might expect to see you know cold, in the form of negative anomalies, seeing as you are apparently selfishly hoarding all of the "cold air". However, I quite often find warm anomalies up there as well all the way from Toronto to mainland Nunavut and beyond. So apparently you are not only hoarding the cold, but you aren't using it for yourselves. Quite rude I would say.

So for at least the next two weeks after this one, when apparently the Pacific Ocean is going to burst into flames and spew superheated air all through the lower 48, I am going to check Shepherds Bay in Nunavut to make sure that some use is actually being made of this cold air that is being "locked away". I had better not see any of this -25 C bullcrap up there. I expect -40 C at the warmest. Everybody got me?

Yeah, I too have heard that Bastardi is depressed. Mind you, the last time he called for a blowtorch winter was 2007-2008 and that was one of the snowiest winters recorded in both Toronto and Ottawa.

As for the cold being bottled up here in Canada, it'll be interesting to see temps here in a week's time...

[cbmclean]

Yeah, I too have heard that Bastardi is depressed. Mind you, the last time he called for a blowtorch winter was 2007-2008 and that was one of the snowiest winters recorded in both Toronto and Ottawa.

As for the cold being bottled up here in Canada, it'll be interesting to see temps here in a week's time...

 

Well, let's take a baseline for right now, and revisit in one weeks time.  Here are the high temps from yesterday for four locations in Canada.  Besides Toronto, I will look at Gjoa Haven, on the North coast of mainland Nunavut, and Eureka, in central Ellesmere Island which is just about the coldest location in North America outside of Greenland (with the possible exception of some extreme mountain tops).  To fill in a gap, I picked a location in Northeast Ontario near James Bay:Moosonee.

 

Highs 1/1/2012

 

Toronto (Island Airport) 25 F/~-4 C, which I gather is nothing exceptional for this time of year.

 

Moosonee: -2 F/~-19 C, which looks to be a little chilly for this time of year.

 

Gjoa Haven: -14 F/~-25.5 CWhich is mild for this time of year although with recent warming in the region this is not to far off of "normal".

 

Eureka -16 F/ ~-26.67 C.  This is moderately warm for this time of year, although I should note that the last few days of December were quite chilly.  From 12/27 through 12/31 the highest temperature achieved was -31 F /-35 C.

[cbmclean]

For an interesting comparison, I mention Summit camp, at the top of the Greenlandic Ice Sheet.  This is the coldest place that I know of in the Northern Hemisphere in terms of annual average temperature.  They had an average temperature of -40 F/-40 C for December with the last few days being notably cold as we saw in Eureka but on a more impressive scale.  From Christmas to the end of the month, the highest temperature achieved was -61 F / -51.67 C.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Ottawa is currently at -21C while Toronto is at -6C (with Markham Buttonville reporting -8C). Quite the contrast! One of those evenings where it would be fun to drive between the two cities and watch the thermometer in your car either rise or drop.

[cbmclean]

Ottawa is currently at -21C while Toronto is at -6C (with Markham Buttonville reporting -8C). Quite the contrast! One of those evenings where it would be fun to drive between the two cities and watch the thermometer in your car either rise or drop.

 

Is there a good reporting station in the vicinity of Toronto but somewhat more rural.  My idea is to get an idea of the temperatures of the Toronto area minus some of the Urban Heat Island effect.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Is there a good reporting station in the vicinity of Toronto but somewhat more rural.  My idea is to get an idea of the temperatures of the Toronto area minus some of the Urban Heat Island effect.

 

Markham Buttonville is good for that.

 

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=4841&dlyRange=1986-05-01|2013-01-01&Year=2013&Month=1&Day=01

[Sub_Zero]

We got close here...high of -17.

[Toronto4]

FYI, the last time downtown Toronto got down to -20C or lower was on March 6, 2007 at -20.9C.

 

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=31688&dlyRange=2002-06-04|2013-01-13&Month=3&Year=2007&cmdB1=Go&Day=-9

 

At Pearson Airport, the last date of -20C or lower was January 24, 2011 at -20.7C.

 

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=XX&StationID=5097&Month=1&Year=2011&cmdB2=Go&Day=-9