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If You're Like me and Can't Take any more 12/16-12/20 Fail Talk


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@BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF forecasted solution for later next week would be monster storm for New england into pa and NJ. Would lock up white Christmas there

Lol, well that settles it! We can all rest easy now, a white Christmas is right around the bend! I'd love for him to actually be right, warm or even cold brown Christmas just isn't as festive.

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It would be interesting if this worked out... I've noticed that in succession, each depicted solution seems to get a bit more favorable since the models unraveled over the last couple of days. Each successive system, gets colder and more East as suggested. We'll see -

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It would be interesting if this worked out... I've noticed that in succession, each depicted solution seems to get a bit more favorable since the models unraveled over the last couple of days. Each successive system, gets colder and more East as suggested. We'll see -

Indeed, imagine the models trend fantastically in favor of future systems and crap out a couple days before each? My head may implode lol.

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Yeah pattern looks ripe for potential going forward... just ignore how far west some of those fantasy storms are tracking, haha. For the most part its good for NNE/CNE on the long range progs, but after what is happening this week, I'm hesitent to buy into further SE solutions, but have to think the general evolution would be for each one to track progressively farther SE.

If the next 3 lined up on the long range guidance end up as rainy mixers or something, it may be time to sacrifice someone or something ;)

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Unless Ray's big Daddy develops well SE, I think this week is another week of blah here. It's still early for that storm, but again..no cold air really until the storm later this week, passes.

I don't like the look of this storm right now. Just goes negative way too early. When we had the heights lower across the board a few days ago, it looked a lot better.

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I actually think there's a good shot of no real accumulations Boston/Hartford south the rest of the month. Things could break our way but I just see the groundhog day of storms over and over that Charlie brown us at the last minute. Hopeful still on the 22nd but it's getting silly now.

I disagree. I think people are focused too hard on this week fail. Once that storm leaves, we'll finalyl get colder air. There looks to be ridging into AK this time, so that should help bring colder air and at least allow better opportunities.

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I actually think there's a good shot of no real accumulations Boston/Hartford south the rest of the month. Things could break our way but I just see the groundhog day of storms over and over that Charlie brown us at the last minute. Hopeful still on the 22nd but it's getting silly now.

The 22nd storm (really its the 21st) looks far worse right now than the current storms did at this time range. Synoptically it is just not there with the very early negative tilt and heights not suppressed enough to force it SE before it climbs latitude.

If folks are looking for a more realistic option at a large event right now, Dec 26-27 looks more viable. We could still eek out a White christmas though with all kinds of impulses working around the stalled ULL from the 21st-22nd event and we get an inverted trough to work some magic to give a couple inches on Xmas eve or something...that is possible.

But in terms of a larger scale event, I'm pretty low on this one...but as seen with the last event, a lot can change in a few days.

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Well, like the title of this thread says. I can't take it anymore! So I've booked a 2 week vacation to Helsinki,Finland starting dec.27

Hopefully I can enjoy some snow and cold there :) maybe on the way back it will follow the plane to New England.

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What does the 12z euro and 18z GFS have to say about this system? Still a rainy mess or some signs of hope? Most intrested in the BTV/SLK(Sarnac Lake, NY) areas.

Thanks

-skisheep

Haven't looked too much into detail yet just because I am busy following today's events, but Euro and GFS both seem to be on the same page. Models are hinting at a passage of rain followed by snow as the cold air ushers in behind the front, setting up a possible snow event for interior regions, although accumulations don't look too impressive. It definitely looks messy though. For your area probably has one of the best set ups since the system gets cut off and you're east of Lake Ontario. Between a NW wind and your location you could be in for a nice LE event given those bands of precip travel far enough. W/NW winds look favorable so definitely something to keep an eye on. There'll be plenty of disco on this event starting probably tomorrow lol.

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