snowgeek Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Come on Upstate NY posters. Wake up. This forum needs to come alive. Rick's coming back from Europe and if we don't start posting he and others will end up in the New England Forum all of the time lol. We have model mayhem!!! Too many waves cruising the Pacific highway. Is the NAM the only model that has a handle on the CAD signature? Will any areas hold onto snow during Sundays' front end thump? The model spread for Tuesday is huge. I'll take the 0Z Euro's rain to snow. GFS has been insisting on a good dose of rain after some light snow on Sunday. GFS says where's the cold air. Let's hope that sneaky Quebec high can overperform. Euro FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 12Z NAM thru 24 has a slightly stronger CAD signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 12z NAM appears to be lighter with the QPF while the 0C 850 mb contour is south of the Capital District. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 12z NAM appears to be lighter with the QPF while the 0C 850 mb contour is south of the Capital District. That didn't last long. 0Z at 850 cruised north. 2m temps hold a little longer. I'm not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 2nd wave looks flat but then again it's the NAM at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 12z GFS is a bit colder at hr 60 with the 0C line along the VT border. There is a bit of a QPF max over the valley region maybe allowing us to get some moderate IP with the colder lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 GFS says whatever frozen we get is washed away Monday evening and night. GFS is usually too warm in these situations, but I don't feel good about this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like the trend is for future storms to look good 7 or so days out and then look warmer and warmer as they approach. 12/21 storm on GFS looks meh......but don't worry, cold and snowy is always 10 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I've already given up on this winter. Moving on to 2013-2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Uh, so you guys see the 12z GFS.....lake effect potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Uh, so you guys see the 12z GFS.....lake effect potential? Looks like a good potential multiday event for SYR with a very moist airmass and 850 mb temperatures below -10C. The near stationary positioning of the surface is low is a good sign. We'll see if the EC shows a similar potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Looks like a good potential multiday event for SYR with a very moist airmass and 850 mb temperatures below -10C. The near stationary positioning of the surface is low is a good sign. We'll see if the EC shows a similar potential. Good for those affected by NW flow which is great for the ski resorts to my south so I can board and ski! But not so good for my location need WSW/SW wind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Good for those affected by NW flow which is great for the ski resorts to my south so I can board and ski! But not so good for my location need WSW/SW wind! Well there can always be some kind of transient Lake Huron connection to but yeah, those tend to persist further south around the Chautauqua ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well there can always be some kind of transient Lake Huron connection to but yeah, those tend to persist further south around the Chautauqua ridge. I am not complaining though because Holiday Valley opens up this week and they deseperately need snow. I was at a cottage down there at 2000 feet with no snow in December. I go boarding/skiing every Sunday so that will be great news to see them finally get some fresh powder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 NW Flow. i'll take that. My grass needs mowing so bring on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yay, we are finally getting some real snow instead of mood flakes. Lets hope that we can salvage the last 10 days of December with some cold and snowy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I like what I see so far. A few days of sleet / frz rain, a little snow, then the potential for some fluffy stuff after that. Makes for a great base for skiing:) Area wise is just southeast of central Adirondacks (as this forum composes a pretty big area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Make this happen again, along with the week long LES event and I will be happy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This crazy feature has got to bring us something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Did anyone else think that the 12z GFs looked like December 1993 towards the end of the run? Showed sub zero air moving into Ontario, northern New York. 18z GFs backed off somewhat, although Christmas still looked cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Come on Upstate NY posters. Wake up. This forum needs to come alive. Rick's coming back from Europe and if we don't start posting he and others will end up in the New England Forum all of the time lol. We have model mayhem!!! Too many waves cruising the Pacific highway. Is the NAM the only model that has a handle on the CAD signature? Will any areas hold onto snow during Sundays' front end thump? The model spread for Tuesday is huge. I'll take the 0Z Euro's rain to snow. GFS has been insisting on a good dose of rain after some light snow on Sunday. GFS says where's the cold air. Let's hope that sneaky Quebec high can overperform. Euro FTW! Here's a wake up call for you....if it doesn't get cold and snowy soon...Binghamton NY will see its warmest and least snowiest December on record. First wave will be a mixy crappy nothing...maybe a dusting of snow. Next "storm" that people have been hyping looks like it will go too far east or if it is close enough for central NY...it would be an elevation storm with 850 mb temps close to 0C. Winter? what's that? I forgot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Here's a wake up call for you....if it doesn't get cold and snowy soon...Binghamton NY will see its warmest and least snowiest December on record. First wave will be a mixy crappy nothing...maybe a dusting of snow. Next "storm" that people have been hyping looks like it will go too far east or if it is close enough for central NY...it would be an elevation storm with 850 mb temps close to 0C. Winter? what's that? I forgot.... I'm a doubting thomas when it comes to a pattern change. When I see it, I'll believe it. It looks like Toronto (where I'm currently living) will get mainly rain from both of these systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard1024 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I'm a doubting thomas when it comes to a pattern change. When I see it, I'll believe it. It looks like Toronto (where I'm currently living) will get mainly rain from both of these systems. That's my sentiments too brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Good for those affected by NW flow which is great for the ski resorts to my south so I can board and ski! But not so good for my location need WSW/SW wind! While I agree that, in general, the pattern looks much more supportive of LES in the "traditional" snow belt well south of BUF....you can always hope for a subtle s/w to cause temporary backing of the wind to send some of those snowbands northward from time to time. Such short wave features would be impossible to detect at this point in time, and are often difficult to see more than a couple/few days in advance. Also, it looks like the initial CAA may develop on a west/southwest flow immediately behind the arctic front on Friday if you buy into the ECMWF/GGEM solutions...so it's possible there could be some activity close to your neck of the woods before things settle south over the weekend: I will be returning home to BUF on Saturday 12/22 and remaining in town through Wednesday 12/26. When I was home for Thanksgiving, parts of the area experienced a 7" snowfall...the only significant snow of the season to date. Maybe I can bring the good luck with me again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 While I agree that, in general, the pattern looks much more supportive of LES in the "traditional" snow belt well south of BUF....you can always hope for a subtle s/w to cause temporary backing of the wind to send some of those snowbands northward from time to time. Such short wave features would be impossible to detect at this point in time, and are often difficult to see more than a couple/few days in advance. Also, it looks like the initial CAA may develop on a west/southwest flow immediately behind the arctic front on Friday if you buy into the ECMWF/GGEM solutions...so it's possible there could be some activity close to your neck of the woods before things settle south over the weekend: I will be returning home to BUF on Saturday 12/22 and remaining in town through Wednesday 12/26. When I was home for Thanksgiving, parts of the area experienced a 7" snowfall...the only significant snow of the season to date. Maybe I can bring the good luck with me again. 00z GFS seems to have a nice SW flow at least for a little while before the low moves to our east and winds veer more wnw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Don Paul on WIVB's 11pm broadcast was hyping the model concordance for next Friday, suggesting the possibility of something major from that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kulaginman Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 While there could certainly be some lake snows in or close to the BUF area immediately behind the arctic front on Friday, last night's operational ECMWF is doing some interesting things with the developing polar vortex (PV) in the Hudson Bay region next weekend: Initially we start out with two closed h5 vortices at 00z next Saturday evening; one associated with the departing storm system that will likely be a major event/blizzard for the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, and another associated with PV genesis taking place over the Hudson Bay. The latter becomes very important for places like BUF/ART because you'll notice that 24 hours later it has settled into a position near James Bay. This is a climatologically favored location for heavy LES in the BUF/ART area, and could make for a very interesting conclusion to next weekend in both cities IF it pans out this way. No guarantees on this as it is still a long ways out and the upper air pattern over NOAM is very convoluted right now, but it is certainly an interesting development and something that should be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Curious, what historical events at BUF involved a PV position at James Bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 While there could certainly be some lake snows in or close to the BUF area immediately behind the arctic front on Friday, last night's operational ECMWF is doing some interesting things with the developing polar vortex (PV) in the Hudson Bay region next weekend: Initially we start out with two closed h5 vortices at 00z next Saturday evening; one associated with the departing storm system that will likely be a major event/blizzard for the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, and another associated with PV genesis taking place over the Hudson Bay. The latter becomes very important for places like BUF/ART because you'll notice that 24 hours later it has settled into a position near James Bay. This is a climatologically favored location for heavy LES in the BUF/ART area, and could make for a very interesting conclusion to next weekend in both cities IF it pans out this way. No guarantees on this as it is still a long ways out and the upper air pattern over NOAM is very convoluted right now, but it is certainly an interesting development and something that should be monitored. Thanks for the info Justin. Hope you bring us some more luck when your back in OP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 While there could certainly be some lake snows in or close to the BUF area immediately behind the arctic front on Friday, last night's operational ECMWF is doing some interesting things with the developing polar vortex (PV) in the Hudson Bay region next weekend: Initially we start out with two closed h5 vortices at 00z next Saturday evening; one associated with the departing storm system that will likely be a major event/blizzard for the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, and another associated with PV genesis taking place over the Hudson Bay. The latter becomes very important for places like BUF/ART because you'll notice that 24 hours later it has settled into a position near James Bay. This is a climatologically favored location for heavy LES in the BUF/ART area, and could make for a very interesting conclusion to next weekend in both cities IF it pans out this way. No guarantees on this as it is still a long ways out and the upper air pattern over NOAM is very convoluted right now, but it is certainly an interesting development and something that should be monitored. Yeah the last 2 runs of the GEM agree with this as well! Beautiful runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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