WeatherFox Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Hey guys, I think it would be cool to post some of the official NWS discussions concerning the long range storm potential which I'd call "snipets" in this thread. I have some that I'll post later. Feel free to quote from local NWS office, other NWS offices, HPC, and SPC. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 332 PM EST THU DEC 13 2012 ...LATER TUE-THU...MOSTLY UNSETTLED. AN APPROACHING H5 TROUGH WILL PROMOTE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST/SE COAST TUE NIGHT-THU. THESE LOWS MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING RAINS WED AND PERHAPS SOME SNOWS (NORTH AND WEST) THU. A TREND TO COLDER WEATHER THU INTO NEXT WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 617 PM EST THU DEC 13 2012 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THERE STILL REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL EVOLUTION AND IMPACTS FROM A COASTAL STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT BEING THE CASE...THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS AND THE LOCATION OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE FACT THAT THE WAVE PACKETS OR ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM STILL RESIDE OVER THE PAC. THE AMPLITUDE...TIMING...AND PHASING OF THIS ENERGY WILL BE KEY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROF OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY ON MON AND THE RESULTANT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IN THE THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME. MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO SPARE THE REGION A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. IN ADDITION...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT THIS TIME ALSO SUPPORT A MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH PERHAPS PERIODS OF WINTRY WEATHER INLAND. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC WITH ANY DETAILS...BUT RATHER TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL AND MONITOR FUTURE UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 617 PM EST THU DEC 13 2012 ...LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT...AND THEN TRACKS OFFSHORE UNDERGOING RAPID DEEPENING ON WED. AT THIS TIME...THIS LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE EAST OF 70W. THE 12Z ECMWF TRACKS JUST EAST OF THE 40N...70W BENCHMARK ON WED...WHILE THE GFS IS A FEW DEGREES FARTHER EAST. THESE TRACKS PLACE THE TRI-STARE AREA ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE STORM SYSTEM WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND A GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 459 AM EST FRI DEC 14 2012 ...AS FOR P-TYPE...DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DEVELOPS...AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS...WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE IF ENOUGH DYNAMICAL COOLING OCCURS TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUE OR WED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 140 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2012 ...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT THIS TIME ALSO SUPPORT A MAINLY RAIN EVENT WITH PERHAPS PERIODS OF WINTRY WEATHER INLAND. DUE TO THE LARGE DISAGREEMENT...HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME AT THIS POINT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC WITH ANY DETAILS...BUT RATHER TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL AND MONITOR FUTURE UPDATES. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO AND ADD THE WINTRY MIX FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 644 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2012 HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DIVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. PRIMARY LOW SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...BUT MODELS INDICATING YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE DELMARVA THURSDAY NIGHT... TRACKING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX THURSDAY EVENING...BUT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION...PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. TOO SOON TO CARRY LIKELY POPS...AS THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE...SO WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH SLOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION...LINGERING PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT COULD TURN TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 917 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012 ...TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES CONTINUING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER TREND OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL...9 DEGREES OR MORE MONDAY-THURSDAY... ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY! COOLING FRIDAY-SATURDAY STILL LEAVES THE NUMBERS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...NO WIDESPREAD SNOWCOVER UPSTREAM AND NEARBY TO COOL THE AIRMASSES. THE ECMWF OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND. AM UNCONVINCED... ESPECIALLY SINCE MY IMPRESSION IS THE OP ECMWF IS STARTING TO WARM ITS TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHEN COMPARED TO PRIOR CYCLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 109 PM EST THU DEC 20 2012 ...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. POSSIBLE LIGHT PRECIP TUESDAY...IF ECMWF IS TO BE BELIEVED. THIS DUE TO PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THOUGH IN THIS FAST PATTERN 5 TO 6 DAYS IN ADVANCE. HIGH PRESSURE ENSURES DRY WEATHER AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN ENERGY FROM WESTERN SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS SFC FRONT/LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. TEMPS REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HPC NUMBERS/GMOS AND MEX GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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