Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[Snow_Miser]

http://proa.accuweat..._24∩=MSLP(mb) / Surface Precipitation&hr=192&uid=111&map=conus&mv0=jma_nh&gv0=A 192 hr JMA for fun. prob cant open here - if anyone has it pls throw it up thanks

I have an Accu WX Pro account, so I'm able to see that image. Pretty large scale system gearing up near Georgia on that timeframe.

[Isotherm]

Weathergun, I agree with your thoughts.

The synoptic evolution over the next week actually looks pretty decent to me. The EPO signal will be changing PRIOR to Christmas, around the 21st, as the Aleutian ridge extends nwd into Alaska, breaking off a block, which then propagates eastward to congeal w/ the high height anomaly over Hudson's Bay. This height rise over Alaska will drain arctic air into Southern Canada with at least polar air across the northern US in the 21st-25th period. The 50/50 low is solidly in place on Christmas day in conjunction w/ the blocking in northern Canada. The question in my mind concerns the progression of the Western short wave. Does it cut-off and deepen that early as guidance seems to be suggesting? If so, heights will be pumped in the Southeast and there will be time for the SE Canadian 50/50 induced confluence to weaken. However, even if that occurs, my early guess is the storm will not be nearly as strong or as far north as currently progged. Nothing's set in stone at this stage.

[earthlight]

Heavy, heavy hail falling right now.

This is better than any storm this summer.

[Isotherm]

[Snow_Miser]

GFS Ensemble Member showing the transfer from the primary to the secondary. Interesting solution.

You can see the 1030 mb high to the north preventing the storm from cutting, thus forcing a transfer.

[supermeh]

http://proa.accuweat..._24∩=MSLP(mb) / Surface Precipitation&hr=192&uid=111&map=conus&mv0=jma_nh&gv0=A 192 hr JMA for fun. prob cant open here - if anyone has it pls throw it up thanks

Has the main low over Alabama and Mississippi

[tmagan]

Too bad it isn't tomorrow, we would be approaching a record high.

A climatic oddity tomorrow, only December date in KNYC history without a sixty degree reading.

[PB GFI]

I have an Accu WX Pro account, so I'm able to see that image. Pretty large scale system gearing up near Georgia on that timeframe.

Even if its just a flicker of light in a sea of darkness. Just nice to see a diff solution from a global model

[earthlight]

2 minutes of heavy pea sized hail with that storm.

[tmagan]

2 minutes of heavy pea sized hail with that storm.

Was a 'Special Weather Statement' issued for that storm, because it is certainly worthy of one.

[TWCCraig]

2 minutes of heavy pea sized hail with that storm.

Doesn't seem like a December day. Mild with pop up thunderstorms.

[SnowGoose69]

GFS Ensemble Member showing the transfer from the primary to the secondary. Interesting solution.

You can see the 1030 mb high to the north preventing the storm from cutting, thus forcing a transfer.

I would not be surprised even if this storm cuts if there is a few inches on the front end before it changes over to rain, obviously if the storm cuts into Illinois or Wisconsin that won't happen, but if the track is more oriented from WSW-ENE into the eastern OH Valley or a transfer does occur it could happen.

[earthlight]

Big rumble of thunder just now too. Ha. This is awesome.

[Isotherm]

Note the major changes taking place over Canada as the EPO signal reverses at D 3-5. Arctic cold at initial is locked up over AK/Eastern Siberia/Arctic, but this gets dislodged to the south and east, overspreading most of Canada by D7.

Initial:

D 7:

Note the warming in locations its currently the coldest

[earthlight]

Was a 'Special Weather Statement' issued for that storm, because it is certainly worthy of one.

Didn't see one, but I agree it was warranted.

[Dsnowx53]

John, you always manage to be right in the tiny hail core.

[isnice]

Heavy, heavy hail falling right now.

This is better than any storm this summer.

I can confirm. There were even a couple rumbles of thunder here.

[IsentropicLift]

Heavy, heavy hail falling right now.

This is better than any storm this summer.

Did you report to the NWS? They don't even have a Special Weather Statement up right now.

[Snow_Miser]

2 minutes of heavy pea sized hail with that storm.

I got a thunderstorm as well in my neck of the woods. Not hail, but some pretty gusty winds, a few thunderclaps and some rain.

[earthlight]

John, you always manage to be right in the tiny hail core.

And I got a rumble of thunder too. Maybe we can start seeing flurries in June now.

[tmagan]

That storm is making a bee-line for the TEWR TDWR.

[tmagan]

Surprising KOKX doesn't have a Special Weather Statement for the storm now.

[IsentropicLift]

SPC Mesoscale indicating about 100 J/KG of SBCAPE over the area

[earthlight]

SPC Mesoscale indicating about 100 J/KG of SBCAPE over the area

Wildly unstable environment. Look out.

[earthlight]

PHI is on it...OKX asleep.

NJZ012-013-015-019-020-PAZ071-104-106-182045-

EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-LOWER BUCKS PA-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-

NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-

WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-

248 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT

BUCKS...BURLINGTON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...MONTGOMERY...

OCEAN AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES...

AT 246 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

TRENTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL

BE NEAR YARDVILLE-GROVEVILLE...WHITE HORSE AROUND 300 PM...

CLARKSBURG...ROOSEVELT AROUND 315 PM...MANALAPAN AND JACKSONS MILLS

AROUND 330 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY

THUNDERSTORMS.

[IsentropicLift]

Wildly unstable environment. Look out.

Not bad for December 18th

[earthlight]

Not bad for December 18th

Agreed

[Snow_Miser]

12z JMA

[doncat]

Had a brief period of hail here also.

[MJO812]

Just heard a rumble of thunder .