Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[Snow_Miser]

This run has this SLP 50 miles east than the previous run.

 

The GFS has been fluctuating with regard to the intensity and the position of the low, but it has been consistent with a storm during this timeframe. This is the next one to really watch IMO. It does not appear to be a small storm based off of the way it's modelled now.

 

The GGEM also has this storm, but it looked like the 00z GFS. Not sure what the ECM had for this timeframe.

[Storm At Sea]

i like the overall idea of there being a storm in the NE during that period as the pattern collapses and the NAO starts rising again; pretty classic AE. Oh, and then everyone complains when the snow melts 1 day later...ala January 2002.

The GFS has been fluctuating with regard to the intensity and the position of the low, but it has been consistent with a storm during this timeframe. This is the next one to really watch IMO. It does not appear to be a small storm based off of the way it's modelled now.

 

The GGEM also has this storm, but it looked like the 00z GFS. Not sure what the ECM had for this timeframe.

[SnowGoose69]

i like the overall idea of there being a storm in the NE during that period as the pattern collapses and the NAO starts rising again; pretty classic AE. Oh, and then everyone complains when the snow melts 1 day later...ala January 2002.

 

Right now though I cannot see that storm doing anything other than cutting way north and popping a secondary off New England, even they would likely be mostly rain in that scenario, the only places that would see snow would be the northern Great Lakes.  We definitely need to pull off some sort of phase on the event late on the 2nd into the 3rd I think to have a shot.

[NEG NAO]

This run has this SLP 50 miles east than the previous run.

that is a good track for most of NYC metro - several inches of snow - see if it holds in future runs...........

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z NAM has a weak surface low just east of ACY on day 4. Prior runs didn't have this so it's a step in the right direction.

[PB GFI]

Weeklies haven't been good this season. Still waiting for the massive pna that they showed.

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No brother , they hav been pretty good , they caught the early Jan warmth they caught the last 10 day outbreak from 3 weeks ago .

I am not saying its right but dont dismiss em cause we dont like it .

2 mm temps are awful on this run . It shows a block developing , so the signals are mixed .Better to wait for Thrs and see if theres any continuity .

1 more point . monthly Euro MJO - takes it from 8-1-2 and now into 3 . so it does show it swinging around .....

[SnoSki14]

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No brother , they hav been pretty good , they caught the early Jan warmth they caught the last 10 day outbreak from 3 weeks ago .

I am not saying its right but dont dismiss em cause we dont like it .

2 mm temps are awful on this run . It shows a block developing , so the signals are mixed .Better to wait for Thrs and see if theres any continuity .

1 more point . monthly Euro MJO - takes it from 8-1-2 and now into 3 . so it does show it swinging around .....

 

Given the way the winter went, I wouldn't be surprised if we got screwed but we'll at least see a couple of weak clippers coming up. Latest gfs has a weak system around day 3, a stronger one at Day 5, and we'll see what it does with the third one. 

[Kaner587]

12z GFS digs that s/w even more...we get a nice storm out of it. Interesting look to it lets see how the other 12z model suite looks

[CooL]

Right now though I cannot see that storm doing anything other than cutting way north and popping a secondary off New England, even they would likely be mostly rain in that scenario, the only places that would see snow would be the northern Great Lakes.  We definitely need to pull off some sort of phase on the event late on the 2nd into the 3rd I think to have a shot.

 

None of these vorts from the northern stream have cut this year. Only thing we need to worry about is the storm dissapearing on the models like the last one

[Kaner587]

None of these vorts from the northern stream have cut this year. Only thing we need to worry about is the storm dissapearing on the models like the last one

a problem we've had with the northern stream vorts wasn't necessarily cutting but traveling too far north, especially during the neutral/-PNA regime.

[IsentropicLift]

12z GFS is a classic Biller B threat in the 7 day time frame. Takes a surface low into SW PA and pops a secondary off NC. Then tracks an intensifying coastal just outside the bench mark. Warning criteria snowfall for all. Long Island would do the best. Great period of over running followed by the CCB which gets going a hair too late otherwise this would have been a major snowfall. As it is we're talking nearly a half inch for everyone with less amounts NW and more from the city eastward.

 

[Storm At Sea]

I disrespectfully disagree. Mean trough axis is practically a tipping cup at this point. I just don't see it cutting especially with the pattern change.

Right now though I cannot see that storm doing anything other than cutting way north and popping a secondary off New England, even they would likely be mostly rain in that scenario, the only places that would see snow would be the northern Great Lakes.  We definitely need to pull off some sort of phase on the event late on the 2nd into the 3rd I think to have a shot.

[Dsnowx53]

None of these vorts from the northern stream have cut this year. Only thing we need to worry about is the storm dissapearing on the models like the last one

a problem we've had with the northern stream vorts wasn't necessarily cutting but traveling too far north, especially during the neutral/-PNA regime.

Right, that's a good point. There's a difference between cutting and simply being too far north. But fortunately, the PNA regime, as modeled, looks more favorable. The PAC was actually pretty flat for last Friday's "event".

I'm excited about the two small clippers the GFS is showing.

[MJO812]

Right, that's a good point. There's a difference between cutting and simply being too far north. But fortunately, the PNA regime, as modeled, looks more favorable. The PAC was actually pretty flat for last Friday's "event". I'm excited about the two small clippers the GFS is showing.

 

The models are starting to bring back the clipper for Friday.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z CMC is a slightly flatter/weaker/slower version of the 12z GFS

 

[IsentropicLift]

Right, that's a good point. There's a difference between cutting and simply being too far north. But fortunately, the PNA regime, as modeled, looks more favorable. The PAC was actually pretty flat for last Friday's "event". I'm excited about the two small clippers the GFS is showing.

Does a strong clipper hurt or help the day 7 threat?

[Kaner587]

ok I'll take the CMC at this point.

 

On another note I wanted to say how much more I've learned this season from Sandy on, in terms of pattern forecasting, than any other single season since I've been on these forums since the old days of wright weather back in 2002. Even though this winter has proven to be quite frustrating it's been incredibly educational. As a weather hobbyist I'll never be a true meteorologist but its amazing how much one can learn form being on these forums and using the resources available. 

[NaoPos]

Does a strong clipper hurt or help the day 7 threat?

helps. acting as a transient 50-50 block.

[IsentropicLift]

ok I'll take the CMC at this point.

 

On another note I wanted to say how much more I've learned this season from Sandy on, in terms of pattern forecasting, than any other single season since I've been on these forums since the old days of wright weather back in 2002. Even though this winter has proven to be quite frustrating it's been incredibly educational. As a weather hobbyist I'll never be a true meteorologist but its amazing how much one can learn form being on these forums and using the resources available. 

+1

 

And it looks like the CMC is primed to deliver the goods it's just delayed.

[Kaner587]

Does a strong clipper hurt or help the day 7 threat?

yesterday snowgoose was talking about a disturbance prior to the clipper threat ( I believe but could be wrong) that could ruin that one. All along hes been thinking its a bad track for us for 2/5, which for all we know may be right. IF the clipper bombs out, or is slower, then our 2/5 threat remains more favorable due to the lower heights over our area and northeast into atlantic canada acting to suppress slightly. This seemingly causes an inability of the northern stream vort to amplify to soon and move north of us, or too close to us to bring frozen precip. A timely PNA spike will also help in this. The 2 in conjunction could keep this threat alive and our best threat of the year. We'll see though

[Kaner587]

helps. acting as a transient 50-50 block.

beat me to it but ya, and thats been a change in the modeling at least on the GFS over the past 24hrs

[SnowGoose69]

yesterday snowgoose was talking about a disturbance prior to the clipper threat ( I believe but could be wrong) that could ruin that one. All along hes been thinking its a bad track for us for 2/5, which for all we know may be right. IF the clipper bombs out, or is slower, then our 2/5 threat remains more favorable due to the lower heights over our area and northeast into atlantic canada acting to suppress slightly. This seemingly causes an inability of the northern stream vort to amplify to soon and move north of us, or too close to us to bring frozen precip. A timely PNA spike will also help in this. The 2 in conjunction could keep this threat alive and our best threat of the year. We'll see though

The system the 12Z NAM and GFS tried bringing back late on the 1st into the 2nd would potentially kill the system on the 3rd that the GFS and Canadian have been trying to show and by killing that system, you'd kill anything being able to explosively deepen up in SERN Canada and hence th storm on the 5th-6th might cut way north...my feeling is we can do without the system at 84-90 hours, see if anything can materialize from the one a couple of days later and if not at least hope it bombs out off Canada to suppress the bigger one aroun Day 7-8.

[SnowGoose69]

Likely meaningless but thre are some very amped up 15Z SREFs members around 72 hours and beyond for here, some would probably be rain.

[CooL]

Likely meaningless but thre are some very amped up 15Z SREFs members around 72 hours and beyond for here, some would probably be rain.

 

For the clipper? lol that is snow. Can't see how we get rain from a clipper

 

[SnowGoose69]

For the clipper? lol that is snow. Can't see how we get rain from a clipper

 

 

Yeah on closer look its snow, still think though we're better off ditching this system and hoping for a better phase on the 2/2-2/3 one because it digs south more and would have more time to get going, this one may be too late in the game by the time it gets going to really help us much.

[CooL]

Yeah on closer look its snow, still think though we're better off ditching this system and hoping for a better phase on the 2/2-2/3 one because it digs south more and would have more time to get going, this one may be too late in the game by the time it gets going to really help us much.

 

Yea. But there's 3 different waves.. The models are really bombing the wave after the clipper this weekend  around 132 hours. The last wave around 160hrs is the one that has the biggest potential. 

[MJO812]

GFS has the clipper for Friday

[Allsnow]

18z gfs also has some light snow on Sunday

[Kaner587]

and will almost certainly have something for 2/5 although cannot tell yet. out to 141 and the s/w is digging

[Allsnow]

Yeah powerful vort coming down at hr 150