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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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Kaner587

Kaner587

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I think the euro looks good moreso in the long range than mid range. A bombing clipper turned arctic front pumps heights in eastern canada and we get some semblance of blocking that holds the PV in place keeping it cold, but as it has been for this previous cold period, dry unfortunately. If we can get some weak blocking that is more than just transient we could be in for a snowy period, I just dont see it. I'm totally fine with 1-3/2-4 clippers the way the season has gone and its nice to have at least a wintry feel which was almost entirely absent from the 2nd week of feb 2011 till about 2 weeks ago

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nzucker

nzucker

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I think the euro looks good moreso in the long range than mid range. A bombing clipper turned arctic front pumps heights in eastern canada and we get some semblance of blocking that holds the PV in place keeping it cold, but as it has been for this previous cold period, dry unfortunately. If we can get some weak blocking that is more than just transient we could be in for a snowy period, I just dont see it. I'm totally fine with 1-3/2-4 clippers the way the season has gone and its nice to have at least a wintry feel which was almost entirely absent from the 2nd week of feb 2011 till about 2 weeks ago

 

The 12z ECM looks interesting at Day 9-10 as that clipper reinforces the cold air source and pumps heights in the North Atlantic...doesn't look like a true -NAO but more of a North Atlantic ridge. What we want is for the ridge over AK/E PAC to pump more so that the low currently modeled at Day 10 over the Pacific Northwest becomes more of a bowling ball that tracks further south across the CONUS. Right now, it looks as if that storm could evolve into more of a cutter or SWFE, repeating then cold+dry/warm+rain (or mix) pattern. That's a decent pattern though, but we need a stronger East Pacific ridge to bleed further west as the bombing clipper raises heights over Greenland. 

 

The pattern does look colder than normal for early February, at a time when snow is climatologically favored the most. I'd just like to see more of a classic -NAO. 

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jm1220

jm1220

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I see a couple of weak clippers that give us maybe an inch of snow before the pattern could break down. The blocking is very east based and unfavorable for us if the gfs is correct but anything that far out is far from accurate.

 

The snowstorm signal is just not there this season. The best hope is for a clipper to try to blow up as it passes for us to get anything more than an inch or two of snow. The gfs does bring the clippers fairly far south so maybe something could happen, we'll see.

We need either a very energetic clipper to be able to squeeze out enough moisture in this pattern for a good swath of snow, which will be hard to come by due to the very fast flow which tends to shear systems out and not allow them to really dig in for a favorable flow from the gulf, or a favorable, west based NAO block to slow these down and force them to dig and phase. That's what saved our 2010-11 winter and I would think we will need it again to approach a normal snow winter.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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Day 5 clipper looking a bit more energetic on the gfs, it's digging a bit more and it's trying to tap some gulf moisture. It'll definitely have to be monitored as these tiny systems can be tricky. There's another much stronger clipper that come down around 2/5 that's interesting.

 

It'll have to dig further south for us to benefit or we would get rain. It has a nice high positioned to its north which is great, it's only a matter of how far south it gets. In fact if the first one managed to blow up, the one after would likely head further south and  we'd really benefit from both. 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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Mjo is going to be favorable. I believe the next two weeks will be good for snow lovers.

Brother sometimes phase 8 is dry .... FYI euro ensembles look better for day 8 storm. Keep in mind , it's day 8. Focus on sat nites first. See what u can eek out

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Storm At Sea

Storm At Sea

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Same crap, different year. Law of averages...you have some great winters during the 2000's, there's going to be some real terrible winters to follow to level things out.

 

I just took a look at last winter's threads and everyone was talking about a possible snowy February, all these storm chances, a possible -NAO. Seems like this year even worse. However, I do believe we do see a much more snowier February this time around.

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listarz

listarz

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On a slightly positive note...it was nice to look out the window for 7 straight days and see snow on the ground. Albeit, barely enough to cover the grass. I don't see what's left lasting very much longer. One more day? Last year that wasn't even a pipe dream. So, for me, this year so far has been far and away better than last.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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The first clipper on the gfs still looks good, maybe a 1-3" event if we're lucky. The second one around 2/5 shows us how a little bit of blocking could go a long way. There's a lot of leftover energy though so maybe we could get a secondary spin off or something. 

 

The first one is probably the one we need to happen, the second one I think is going way inland and north and will probably more or less just a FROPA for most people.  The first event could potentially be bigger than 1-3 but its at the mercy of that very subtle disturbance around 90 hours that goes off the Delmava, that system CANNOT blow up just off the coast, if it does we'll ruin the setup for the system on the 3rd.  Remember, this is largely what killed the last storm, that small clipper exploding off the Delmarva a day or before, basically flattening the pattern and not allowing any amplification behind it, so far the models seem less gung ho on blowing up this one so we may stay in business.

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Kaner587

Kaner587

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being that blocking is non existent that 2/5 threat will need a miracle to amount to anything frozen here. It seems like our only prayer is a brief PNA spike. You can see on the 00z GFS that there is some weak ridging on the west coast, of slightly greater amplitude than 12z or 18z, as well as a southern stream s/w humming along. If we can get more digging slightly further east that would be our possibility. Thats like 5 ifs lol which means it aint happening. Damn frustrating winter its been

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HailMan06

HailMan06

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On a slightly positive note...it was nice to look out the window for 7 straight days and see snow on the ground. Albeit, barely enough to cover the grass. I don't see what's left lasting very much longer. One more day? Last year that wasn't even a pipe dream. So, for me, this year so far has been far and away better than last.

Of course, this winter couldn't possibly be any worse than last year's disaster.

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