Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[famartin]

i suspect the reason he doesnt post much has very little to do with the weather.

I was under that impression as well.

[famartin]

You guys crack me up. First you complain it's too warm, then it's cold but you complain about no snow. Then it snows a little and you want a KU. Get over it.

All the kids want is a big snowstorm.  They won't be satisfied til they get it.

[NEG NAO]

This cold sucks without snow. What a waste. Another winter down the drain. Where is my  25-30 inches of snow that a lot of people were predicting?

Now that you said something like this - I am expecting above average snowfall in February.................

[IsentropicLift]

All the kids want is a big snowstorm. They won't be satisfied til they get it.

I'll be the first person to get excited when a KU shows up but I'm realistic.

[famartin]

I'll be the first person to get excited when a KU shows up but I'm realistic.

There's a reason Snow88 is always a top contender for Weenie Of The Year

[MJO812]

i suspect the reason he doesnt post much has very little to do with the weather.

+100

[MJO812]

There's a reason Snow88 is always a top contender for Weenie Of The Year

I always lose

[MJO812]

Clipper looks good on the GFS for sun.

[NEG NAO]

Clipper looks good on the GFS for sun.

huh ? 18Z GFS at newark shows only 6/10ths of an inch - another dusting

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

[MJO812]

At least it shows a clipper

[FPizz]

huh ? 18Z GFS at newark shows only 6/10ths of an inch - another dusting

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

Hundredth's

[JonClaw]

This last little snowfall was perfect. Easy to clean off the car, pretty to look at, no heavy shoveling.

 

I'd trade in a KU for weekly dusting+ events.

[TWCCraig]

This last little snowfall was perfect. Easy to clean off the car, pretty to look at, no heavy shoveling.

 

I'd trade in a KU for weekly dusting+ events.

 

I kinda agree. I got 2.7" of snow Monday and the snow lasted all week with the cold air in place. As long as there's snow on the ground, no matter how much, I'll be content.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

This last little snowfall was perfect. Easy to clean off the car, pretty to look at, no heavy shoveling.

I'd trade in a KU for weekly dusting+ events.

I'll gladly take that weekly event.

[SnoSki14]

This last little snowfall was perfect. Easy to clean off the car, pretty to look at, no heavy shoveling.

 

I'd trade in a KU for weekly dusting+ events.

 

I would bet a million dollars you wouldn't say that if we had an incoming KU event right now. However, if that's how you really feel than that's great because KU's are very rare and lighter snow events are much more common.

[Snowshack]

I'll gladly take that weekly event.

Those little events are much better if theyre freshening up a respectable snowpack.  When theyre the only thing we have going, like this year, they are kinda lacking.  Even the malls couldnt plow it into a decent sized pile!

[NEG NAO]

Hundredth's

thank you

[MJO812]

Those little events are much better if theyre freshening up a respectable snowpack.  When theyre the only thing we have going, like this year, they are kinda lacking.  Even the malls couldnt plow it into a decent sized pile!

 

There were a lot of small piles in the mall's parking lot near me.

[MJO812]

[SnowGoose69]

 

Canadian still trying at Day 5...

 

[MJO812]

GFS also had the clipper but it isn't like the GGEM.

[MJO812]

0z GGEM has the same storm as the GFS at 204 hours. It's more north on the GGEM.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=216&fixhh=1&hh=204

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=204&fixhh=1&hh=216

[NEG NAO]

Looking at all of the indicies this morning - there is  a possibility that sometime in the first 2 weeks of February all of them including the MJO will be in a favorable position - so this 2 year  snow drought might have a chance of being broken - here is the AO

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

[MJO812]

Euro and Euro ensembles still take the MJO into 1 while the GEFS stall it in 8.

[MJO812]

Weak Clipper on the GFS for this weekend

[NEG NAO]

12Z GFS has a prolonged period of below zero 850's starting late thursday through at least the first week of Feb with a stronger clipper coming along around the 6th then its obvious that blocking is developing as it takes a southern system to our south a few days after that - usually feb 5th through 11th is prime time around here and in this pattern things are looking better if you like snowstorms..........

[Snowshack]

Hopefully that blocking is legit

[MJO812]

Finally a storm comes up from the gulf on the GFS. It's not until 300+ hours away lol.

[SnowGoose69]

12Z GFS has a prolonged period of below zero 850's starting late thursday through at least the first week of Feb with a stronger clipper coming along around the 6th then its obvious that blocking is developing as it takes a southern system to our south a few days after that - usually feb 5th through 11th is prime time around here and in this pattern things are looking better if you like snowstorms..........

Canadian still wants a minor snow event about 4-5 days out from now, 12Z GFS lost the bigger clipper after that more or less but signs are still there.  I'd agree it looks good after Day 8 but problem is the cold air is starting to get iffy, the ridge is more out in the Plains and the NAO is neutral or positive.

[SnoSki14]

I see a couple of weak clippers that give us maybe an inch of snow before the pattern could break down. The blocking is very east based and unfavorable for us if the gfs is correct but anything that far out is far from accurate.

 

The snowstorm signal is just not there this season. The best hope is for a clipper to try to blow up as it passes for us to get anything more than an inch or two of snow. The gfs does bring the clippers fairly far south so maybe something could happen, we'll see.