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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

Just yesterday CPC had the east coast way below average for the 8-14 day period.

So what.   The CFS Monthlies have the entire USA above normal every single month through Sept. !!!    It has also shown a trend toward warm and wet for Feb.  from the cold and dry it was indicating.    I think winter is over except for an accidental event.    The failure of a weak west based El Nino to materialize has allowed southeast ridging to lurk nearby and the possibility or probabilty now of a La Nina will seal our fate.   But Long Live the SSW Event,  RIP in about 3 weeks.

P.S.   Does anyone here know how I can just skip over the next 2 months?   Need to start an early tan,  not even cold enough to redden my face!

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Momza

Momza

Posted
Posted

So what.   The CFS Monthlies have the entire USA above normal every single month through Sept. !!!    It has also shown a trend toward warm and wet for Feb.  from the cold and dry it was indicating.    I think winter is over except for an accidental event.    The failure of a weak west based El Nino to materialize has allowed southeast ridging to lurk nearby and the possibility or probabilty now of a La Nina will seal our fate.   But Long Live the SSW Event,  RIP in about 3 weeks.

P.S.   Does anyone here know how I can just skip over the next 2 months?   Need to start an early tan,  not even cold enough to redden my face!

Debbie downer...

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

0z GGEM for Feb 2

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

So what.   The CFS Monthlies have the entire USA above normal every single month through Sept. !!!    It has also shown a trend toward warm and wet for Feb.  from the cold and dry it was indicating.    I think winter is over except for an accidental event.    The failure of a weak west based El Nino to materialize has allowed southeast ridging to lurk nearby and the possibility or probabilty now of a La Nina will seal our fate.   But Long Live the SSW Event,  RIP in about 3 weeks.

P.S.   Does anyone here know how I can just skip over the next 2 months?   Need to start an early tan,  not even cold enough to redden my face!

 

:axe:

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Euro is the only model that has a strong amplitude into phase 8-1. The other models either bring it in the COD or bring it weak into 1. Not good .

The euro ensembles took it through 6 7 8 and and now 1. In the last 3 weeks the GFS killed it in 6 then 7 then 8 , follow the EURO. It's had a better handle on the pacific better than the GFS during ths time.

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Snowshack

Snowshack

Posted
Posted

This cold sucks without snow. What a waste. Another winter down the drain. Where is my  25-30 inches of snow that a lot of people were predicting? :cry:

It does get hard to stay optimistic as the calender rolls into February without us having cashed in.    Id rather have the weather we've had this past week than 40's and 50's though.  At least the cold has been a factor, even if it hasnt delivered the goods.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Looks like if we done get anything in the next two weeks its over. 2nd half of February looks like a torch.

 

I'd be a bit worried if we don't have a productive first 15 days of February given the fading SSW and the MJO marching into the warmer phases potentially by February 15th. I still think we have chances to see a classic KU in that typical timeframe around Feb 8-10...

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

It does get hard to stay optimistic as the calender rolls into February without us having cashed in.    Id rather have the weather we've had this past week than 40's and 50's though.  At least the cold has been a factor, even if it hasnt delivered the goods.

 

ILike I said, the cold is useless without snow.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

I'd be a bit worried if we don't have a productive first 15 days of February given the fading SSW and the MJO marching into the warmer phases potentially by February 15th. I still think we have chances to see a classic KU in that typical timeframe around Feb 8-10...

HM was talking about a possible winter storm in that timeframe.

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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted

Think about it. earthlight hasn't shown up in a while and very frequently as well. If he shows up at the first week of February with optimism, then I'll start posting frequently and then we'll know that there's a real snowfall threat imminent. 

 

Ok, gotcha.  I'll be crossing my fingers in hopes of your triumphant return.

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Jersey Shore snow

Jersey Shore snow

Posted
Posted

Think about it. earthlight hasn't shown up in a while and very frequently as well. If he shows up at the first week of February with optimism, then I'll start posting frequently and then we'll know that there's a real snowfall threat imminent. 

 

We are all on pins and needles awaiting your deeply insightful analysis....

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

No wonder why earthlight rarely posts in these forums anymore. He knew that this entire winter was dead in the water ever since the start of January.

 

You're correct...he has a secret, private line to Mother Nature and she clues him in ahead of everyone else!

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