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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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danstorm

danstorm

Posted
Posted

12z JMA is nice and amped up for the early February threat. We need that wave to form over the deep south like the GFS has been showing. Then it goes negative over the TN valley and turns the corner.

 

Meh, that's not a good solution.  I'd rather the trough go negative later and further East for big snows at the coast. 

 

A negatively tilted trough in the TN Valley oftentimes means a cut piece.

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted

Wouldn't it be sad if NYC received less cumulative snow in the combined months of December, January, February and March than this past November?

It's so horrendous and mind-boggling that it snowed over 4" when climatalogical normal high temps were around 55-60*, but we are struggling to even see flakes at normal high temps of 37* COMBINED with -15* departures.

As devastating as it was, I'd take Hurricane Sandy's synoptic pattern and teleconnections right NOW over this God-awful current pattern that isn't producing essentially anything which is filled with broken promises and faux nuetral east-based NAO "blocks." In other words, I want to go backwards and NOT forward.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
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1971-72 stumbled until mid January with a 1.8" snowfall on the 28th...February ended up with almost 18" with three storms 4" or more...One big one for the suburbs that changed to rain in the city...I'd like to see that without a snow to rain event that was awful in Brooklyn...

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Wouldn't it be sad if NYC received less cumulative snow in the combined months of December, January, February and March than this past November?

It's so horrendous and mind-boggling that it snowed over 4" when climatalogical normal high temps were around 55-60*, but we are struggling to even see flakes at normal high temps of 37* COMBINED with -15* departures.

As devastating as it was, I'd take Hurricane Sandy's synoptic pattern and teleconnections right NOW over this God-awful current pattern that isn't producing essentially anything which is filled with broken promises and faux nuetral east-based NAO "blocks." In other words, I want to go backwards and NOT forward.

 

If you had Sandy now, then it'd be an epic nor'easter... that went to rain (if it even started as snow) for most of this area.  Of course, then you could get a big snow storm a week or so later.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

During the 7 day period ending this Sunday  , we may wind up experiencing  the longest departures from normal ( during the winter )  in 9 years . So the next time you see a cold shot progged on a model run  , remember this one because chances are it wil not be as long and as strong .

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Wouldn't it be sad if NYC received less cumulative snow in the combined months of December, January, February and March than this past November?

It's so horrendous and mind-boggling that it snowed over 4" when climatalogical normal high temps were around 55-60*, but we are struggling to even see flakes at normal high temps of 37* COMBINED with -15* departures.

As devastating as it was, I'd take Hurricane Sandy's synoptic pattern and teleconnections right NOW over this God-awful current pattern that isn't producing essentially anything which is filled with broken promises and faux nuetral east-based NAO "blocks." In other words, I want to go backwards and NOT forward.

 

With the NAO just refusing to go negative in the correct positioning it would not surprise me if we see maybe just 2-3 more inches the entire winter, I don't think they'll get shutout but then again I didn't think we'd get through this month with almost nothing either.  The problem with the next cold outbreak again is that the PV positioning looks too far east, without the negative NAO in place I'd rather see the PV more north of the WRN Great Lakes that might allow amplification and something to come up the East Coast.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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I wanna say the 0z gfs looks really good in the long range, the warm up is short lived, the transition storm even looks interesting, but given how this entire winter has gone, I'm not buying anything really. 

 

The only thing that's pretty much a lock as we open February is that we will see below normal temperatures for an extended period of time. Anything else is and will remain a big question mark and that includes any snow and blocking pattern. 

 

It's a shame to see so much potential on the models only to witness constant disappointment, but that's the way things have gone and I believe will go on despite the supposed favorable MJO. 

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CooL

CooL

Posted
Posted

EURO showing a storm on the 168-192 timeframe just like the GFS... shows up a coastal this time (GFS has the low going through our area)... :popcorn:

It's the same timeframe but both model showing 2 completely different solutions in how they develop the storm.

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