Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[BxEngine]

after what has happened this winter so far anyone who says February will deliver a favorable pattern for cold and snow is just wishcasting IMO.....................

Anyone using persistence forecasting and ignoring science is a weenie.

[BxEngine]

Oh and LOL at far north and west. I am in the immediate metro. Christ.

[NEG NAO]

The MJO will also be favorable heading into February.

the problem coming up is all of the indicies are forecasted to go in the wrong direction if you like cold and snow which we have had little of so far

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[SnoSki14]

the problem coming up is all of the indicies are forecasted to go in the wrong direction if you like cold and snow

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

 

Yea what's up with that. If the MJO will be as favorable as people say than why are we going in the wrong direction with these values.

[BxEngine]

Yea what's up with that. If the MJO will be as favorable as people say than why are we going in the wrong direction with these values.

This spike has been well forecasted, timed with the warm up next week.

[pazzo83]

Oh and LOL at far north and west. I am in the immediate metro. Christ.

Rockland Co (Nyack) is part of the NYC-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ metropolitan division of the NYC metro:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_Metropolitan_Area

 

 

It is indeed in the immediate metro. 

[MJO812]

This spike has been well forecasted, timed with the warm up next week.

 

This post FTW

[BxEngine]

Rockland Co (Nyack) is part of the NYC-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ metropolitan division of the NYC metro:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_Metropolitan_Area

It is indeed in the immediate metro.

Youre such a nerd. Thats why i love ya. Lol

[pazzo83]

Youre such a nerd. Thats why i love ya. Lol

Haha I try

[MJO812]

0z Euro and GFS agree on the pattern reloading after the brief warmup

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[NEG NAO]

Henry is going for 20:1 - 30 :1 ratios tomorrow with locally 4 - 5 inches

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/fridays-snow-followed-by-more-winter-headaches-sun-mon/4780114

[PB GFI]

0z Euro and GFS agree on the pattern reloading after the brief warmup

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Yes great look , neg epo , pos pna . one small issue , NO blocking , so that mayb cold . But for how long ?

They can stick for a week . but you may easily see another 5 day cold and dry period . Its 10 days out , would be wise to wait and see if it gets sorted

[MJO812]

Mt Holly

"THE TELECONNECTION PATTERNS ARE ALL OUTLOOKED TO BECOME
MILDER NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LULL ON THE
COLD ROAD AS THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION IS OUTLOOKED TO BE
ENTERING THE COLDEST AND STRONGEST CORRELATION PHASE (FOR COLD) TO
START FEBRUARY."

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[NEG NAO]

Yes great look , neg epo , pos pna . one small issue , NO blocking , so that mayb cold . But for how long ?

They can stick for a week . but you may easily see another 5 day cold and dry period . Its 10 days out , would be wise to wait and see if it gets sorted

called persistance in the pattern - once again without the neg nao working with the other indicies in a favorable position very difficult to get a storm on the east coast that wraps up - will just have a progressive pattern and have to be in the right place at the right time to get a clipper and/or southern system to come through here..........

[MJO812]

Here is the latest Euro MJO plots



Going into phase 8 and then phase 1.

[PB GFI]

called persistance in the pattern - once again without the neg nao working with the other indicies in a favorable position very difficult to get a storm on the east coast that wraps up - will just have a progressive pattern and have to be in the right place at the right time to get a clipper and/or southern system to come through here..........

You can snow with a pos NAO , just unlikely to get deep system . the MJO rolling thru 8- should get into 1 . so you may get Southern JET influence , you will have some ridging to work with on the west coast .

You can see SWFE come thru the flow - and if they r robust they can yield the 4- 8 types on the top end .

But you if you dont slow the flow in the Atlantic , they for the most part become proggresive

[MJO812]

The last snowstorm over 6 inches in NYC was Jan 2011.

[PB GFI]

Minus 10 air back here FRI am , its about 72 hours in between troughs . not that bad ..

[SnowGoose69]

The last snowstorm over 6 inches in NYC was Jan 2011.

 

Better than the gap from March 96 til December 2000...I don't count January 2000 since ir was 5.5 I think.

[uncle W]

The last snowstorm over 6 inches in NYC was Jan 2011.

NYC went three years without a 6" snowfall from 1929-30 to 1931-32...four years from 1949-50 to 1952-53...four years from 1996-97 to 1999-00 if you don't count 1/25/00...

[Sampson]

The entirety of the 12z gfs op was putrid.  Mid-long range started to look an awful lot like the early part of December.  I really hope the ensembles are a little more inspiring.

[PB GFI]

The MJO is gona swing thru 8 - 1 and mayb 2 . I remeber arguing about this 2 weeks ago when the GFS progged the MJO to die in phase 6

The Euro says its coming , I am goin with the PAC set up for any long term pattern set up ( and by that i mean 15 days max )

Neg EPO and the MJO favorable phases will prob win out . Nothing is a lock , and yes I can see how shots can come in 5 day waves and not lock off .

This 7 day strecth of cold may wind up being the coldest 7 days against the means ( dec - feb ) since 2004 , so this doesnt happen that often .

And not to mention its doing it with ZERO snow cover . That should tell you theres plenty of cold air at your disposal .

The warm up next week is just a 3 day LUL between troughs and not a pattern change . The trough re fires .

All thats left is a southern jet introduction and a NEG NAO however .( NEITHER ONE EVER EASY ) .

[bluewave]

Better than the gap from March 96 til December 2000...I don't count January 2000 since ir was 5.5 I think.

 

The dry slot really shut us down here with that January 2000 storm. You could it steadily

moving northward on the radar while the heaviest snows were falling early in the morning.

[IsentropicLift]

The Euro is digging more with the groundhog day storm. Looks like the 18z GFS through 96 hrs.

[IsentropicLift]

WOW, the Euro now cuts off in the southwest. First model to do so. Sends a weak cutter into Michigan. Will be interesting to see how the rest of this run unfolds.

 

[MJO812]

That looks like a SWFE.

[PB GFI]

12 z Euro is a 1 day warm up.

[IsentropicLift]

That looks like a SWFE.

It's not. The Euro keeps all the energy bottled up in the southwest instead of phasing it with the northern stream like the GFS has been showing. The GFS still shows a major miller A for the 8-10 day period. Temps would depend on track.

[MJO812]

12 z Euro is a 1 day warm up.

 

This was a 1-2 day warmup at best.

[IsentropicLift]

With the ECMWF now forecasting the MJO to propagate through phases 8-1 I'm fairly confident that early February will produce. If it doesn't, this will probably be our last chance this winter for a KU.