Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[TWCCraig]

Not here but hr 66 on the GFS, brings the LP SE of Greenland down to 923mb. Wow.

[PB GFI]

I am starting to think that if you started on monday and end with this upcoming sunday we may end up with a 7 day stretch of departures averaging close to 10 below at the coldest time of the year. And we may pull this off in a crud yr.

[Heisy]

Looks like GFS develops a low on a stalled front day 7-8, EURO has a tiny one but nothing like GFS. 

[WintersGrasp]

Just FYI, not our region, but do y'all realize that Chicago has a record 334 days without recording at least an inch of snow? That's incredible. CHICAGO.

WOW. Wow. Wow! Is that true ?!?!?

[famartin]

WOW. Wow. Wow! Is that true ?!?!?

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&gl=us&tbm=nws&q=snowless+in+chicago

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Just FYI, not our region, but do y'all realize that Chicago has a record 334 days without recording at least an inch of snow? That's incredible. CHICAGO.

Yeah. I'm well aware of that.

[MJO812]

CPC says what warmup

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[IsentropicLift]

For the secondary threat in the long range, that long wave trough is already building into the SW by hr 96. It's really not that far off.

[IsentropicLift]

Major ridge building into Alaska and western Canda at hr 114. Major phase coming in the SW it appears. Split flow in the east for now.

[Snow_Miser]

Would like to see more blocking into Greenland, but this depicted pattern is a far cry from last year's disaster.

 

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 132, long wave trough in the western states. Very large ridge into the west coast. 1008mb low into eastern CO. Not a bad location for miller A's.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 150 trough continues to dig into Arizona and New Mexico. The first low heads towards Chicago while another one forms further south in TX. This is the low that the 12z GFS blew up.

[IsentropicLift]

Hr 168, low pressure down in western Mississippi. It's warm up this way for now but gets colder. Seeing if it will turn the corner soon. Hr 174 really good setup. Looks like she is going to go negative tilt soon.

[IsentropicLift]

By hr 180 or so she goes negative tilt over the deep south. Sub 988 mb low right over NJ by hr 186. It's obviously very warm but that's based on track. Big storm for PA and Upstate NY this run. Miller A ftw. Plenty of wiggle room as well.

[SnoSki14]

Could be an interesting way to open up February but only if we get cold air in here before the southern low moves up otherwise it'll be 50s and heavy rain. Something in between the 12z gfs and 18z gfs would be ideal. 

[Hailstorm]

I just wish that kind of Miller A would come NOW in this bitter air mass. Janice Huff has our temp at around 50* on Day 7. This GFS solution will probably come to fruition given its coup with the 1/25 "storm." Why can't we get the best of both worlds in this so-called "wintry pattern since January 2011?"

I have a question for you guys: If we do not have a -NAO block, this upcoming Day 7 storm would probably be a rainstorm for us despite the favorable GLAAM and MJO phase, -QBO, +PNA, -EPO, and -AO?

[famartin]

Why can't we get the best of both worlds in this so-called "wintry pattern since January 2011?"

Well, there's a reason KU storms are so special:  They don't happen all that often.

[IsentropicLift]

The way the storm is depicted on the 18z GFS is not bad at all in terms of getting a big snow up here. I know that it's warm but it's not that warm. A more classic track offshore and a bombing low with that kind of phase would bring down plenty of cold air I'm sure. Just happy it's showing up at this point. On its own own for now though.

[Hailstorm]

Well, there's a reason KU storms are so special: They don't happen all that often.

I do realize that; however, one would think that our 2-year unproductive streak would end eventually. And that streak does not have to an end via a KU; I was kind of referring to >5" storms for NYC. It adds insult to injury when southern areas fare better than us.

[famartin]

I do realize that; however, one would think that our 2-year unproductive streak would end eventually. And that streak does not have to an end via a KU; I was kind of referring to >5" storms for NYC. It adds insult to injury when southern areas fare better than us.

 

Fair enough; you seemed to be implying KU by mentioning Miller A and "best of both worlds" but I guess I misread you.

[NEG NAO]

wow - DT going for zilch up here

 

http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stg.jpg

[IsentropicLift]

00z GFS still right on schedule for next week. Big long wave trough digging into the SW by hr 90. About the same as 18z so far. Shocked this hasn't gotten more attention.

 

[SnowGoose69]

00z GFS still right on schedule for next week. Big long wave trough digging into the SW by hr 90. About the same as 18z so far. Shocked this hasn't gotten more attention.

 

 

It appears the disturbance at 500mb is too slow to eject and also goes to far to our west, if it headed more straight into the high we'd be in business.

[IsentropicLift]

It appears the disturbance at 500mb is too slow to eject and also goes to far to our west, if it headed more straight into the high we'd be in business.

I was talking about the miller A around hr 180. Still on the 00z GFS just a tad further NW this run. Gives us 2-4" of rain verbatim.

[rgwp96]

wow - DT going for zilch up here

 

http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/1stg.jpg

probably would fall into the inch zone if the map showed us, 

[JonClaw]

On to the next one, ~February 1st...

[rcad1]

Go figure next week will be 50 and rain but when we have cold air we can't get any qpf.. I think im just about given up on this winter. Not so sure I buy the whole cold and stormy Febuary stuff. How many times have we heard that and still nothing!!!!!!

[SnoSki14]

Go figure next week will be 50 and rain but when we have cold air we can't get any qpf.. I think im just about given up on this winter. Not so sure I buy the whole cold and stormy Febuary stuff. How many times have we heard that and still nothing!!!!!!

 

I have to agree, aside from minor clippers or coatings to an inch events, I just don't see any moderate to heavy snow events. Perhaps we'll get a rain to snow solution as we transition from warm to cold again to start February but once it gets cold again, it looks dry again. Clearly the lack of an El Nino as many forecast had a lot to do with how things went. We're in a La Nina hangover basically with no active southern stream and lackluster blocking. 

 

I won't completely jump the gun and say this winter is like last winter because temperature wise, it's a little different for sure. There is more than one way to have a bad snow season and this winter is showing that so far. 

[Hailstorm]

I have to agree, aside from minor clippers or coatings to an inch events, I just don't see any moderate to heavy snow events. Perhaps we'll get a rain to snow solution as we transition from warm to cold again to start February but once it gets cold again, it looks dry again. Clearly the lack of an El Nino as many forecast had a lot to do with how things went. We're in a La Nina hangover basically with no active southern stream and lackluster blocking.

I won't completely jump the gun and say this winter is like last winter because temperature wise, it's a little different for sure. There is more than one way to have a bad snow season and this winter is showing that so far.

Where do you get the impression that it's going to be dry for February? We are headed for very favorable GWO and GLAAM phases which lead to more storminess.

[MJO812]

The MJO will also be favorable heading into February.