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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted

This is a possible analog storm for the 1/25- 1/26 event - but with snow totals reaching 50 - 75 % on average of the totals for that storm as of right now ............

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05-SurfaceMaps.html

 

Isn't this the Infamous Blizzard of 2005 that dumped 40" of snow on Cape Cod?

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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Most guidance and associated ensembles show a pretty formidable lakes cutter by the middle/end (1/29 - 1/31) of next week.  This would send a push of warm air to the east coast ahead of an eventual front and likely push temps above to much above normal for a day to two to end the month.  With that potential I think you're numbers are right in line perhaps a bit high.  Beyond next's week potential lakes cutter, temps do look to chill down as we head into the first few days of feb and perhaps beyond.

 

Just as this Friday's event was originally progged to make a run for the Lakes. I'm not buying the lakes cutter right now given what I'm seeing w/ phase 8 MJO progression and some blocking to the north. For the first time this winter, global indicators suggest we should trend colder as we approach the time frame rather than the usual warmer.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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Posted

Just as this Friday's event was originally progged to make a run for the Lakes. I'm not buying the lakes cutter right now given what I'm seeing w/ phase 8 MJO progression and some blocking to the north. For the first time this winter, global indicators suggest we should trend colder as we approach the time frame rather than the usual warmer.

 

Tom , You can see on the Euro a new high comes down Wed into Thrs , I wouldnt be shocked if it was 15 degrees at the start of the storm .

This is goin to be a cold storm , we talked  Thrs that this was goin to belly under , now as secondary runs underneath  to the BM ,  Its just a matter of how strong in my mind that has to be ironed out .

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

2006-07 ended up with sixth longest streak of days with a minimum 32 or lower...it started off just as mild as this year...We would need the streak to make it to February 15th to make the list...One mild 24 hour period could spoil it...If this is a real change to our weather pattern it should last a month or so...

season.....Longest con/days min. 32 or lower...
1976-77...........51
1969-70...........45
1917-18...........44
1933-34...........36
1944-45...........36
2006-07...........36
1984-85...........35
1954-55...........33
1989-90...........33
1935-36...........31
1979-80...........31
2003-04...........29
1999-00...........28
1968-69...........27
1967-68...........27
1964-65...........27
2008-09...........27

a new streak of below freezing minimum temperature days is starting...how long does it last?...Can this cold period end up in this category?...

 

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Just as this Friday's event was originally progged to make a run for the Lakes. I'm not buying the lakes cutter right now given what I'm seeing w/ phase 8 MJO progression and some blocking to the north. For the first time this winter, global indicators suggest we should trend colder as we approach the time frame rather than the usual warmer.

 

I hope you're right and wouldn't doubt things change but there does appear to be a temporary relaxation of the cold and trough into the east.  The west coast ridge does breakdown and pull back west allowing the trough to back west.  Guidance is then shooting a storm into the Lakes by mid week (wed/thu).  I missed most of the modeling last week being away and didn't realize Friday's storm was being progged into the Lakes. I do think we see a return to a colder and stormier regime into the start of Feb.

 

test8.gif

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patrick05

patrick05

Posted
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wow i just realized TWC named this storm Jove and was expecting the inverted trough to hit New England... Eric Fisher was supposed (not sure if will go on) to have a live update at Portland, ME this morning... it must've been a tough decision to name this but looks like a FAIL for them today... :axe:

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