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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Best case scenario looking forward is we get an inch or so with the clipper, we get a few inches of snow with the Friday storm, we end up colder than forecast, we experience a brief 1-2 day warmup and then set up shop for a nice -NAO/AO/EPO, +PNA for February that could lead to several big snow events. Tonight's gfs run reflects those ideas pretty nicely and I'm definitely optimistic looking forward.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

I'm hoping this cold spell is cold enough to not make this December/January combo one of the warmest...

season.....Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar...

1889-90.......38.8..........36.7

1912-13.......40.1..........38.1

1931-32.......42.1..........37.3

1932-33.......39.7..........38.4

1949-50.......40.4..........34.1

1974-75.......38.4..........38.1

1997-98.......39.2..........43.0

2001-02.......42.0..........42.4

2006-07.......40.6..........35.3

2011-12.......40.3..........46.0

long term

ave...............33.8..........36.6

30 yr ave......35.5..........39.3

recent years saw the second half warmer than the first except 2007...before 1998 the second half was colder...

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JERSEYSNOWROB

JERSEYSNOWROB

Posted
Posted

Think something may be wrong with your thermometer. No one was that warm today in Monmouth...

http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=NJ&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e[/

You know you could be right. Not even close!!! Hahaha I'll have to check it out. Although I'm currently at 34.3 right now though which is comparible it sounds like. Either way ill investigate. Thanks Ray!

quote]

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

GFS has been depicting a full blown torch mid next week (1/30). Temps soar into the 60's.

 

06zgfswarmup.jpg

 

 

I think we all expected that, but just look how the cold pattern reloads right after a brief 1-2 day torch. I think that big cutter which will cause the torch may set up a very nice -NAO going forward into February. 

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supermeh

supermeh

Posted
Posted

I think we all expected that, but just look how the cold pattern reloads right after a brief 1-2 day torch. I think that big cutter which will cause the torch may set up a very nice -NAO going forward into February.

Don't look past day 6 or 7 on any op run. You will set yourself up for disaster. Look at ensembles.

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

I think we all expected that, but just look how the cold pattern reloads right after a brief 1-2 day torch. I think that big cutter which will cause the torch may set up a very nice -NAO going forward into February. 

 

Yeah, I know. It's been showing up on nearly every run. The problem is the trough entering the west coast digs to the Mexican border out west, and with a ridge over us, it has no choice but to cut.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

With 2/3 (20 days) of January done here's how we stand.  Lets see how much the next week (1/21 - 1/28) can cut down these significant plus departures. 

 

 

NYC: +5.9

EWR: +7.2

LGA:  +6.3

JFK:  +5.9

TTN: +6.7

 

 

Wow, how in the world are we going to bring those massive temperatures way down especially given the potential for another big time torch as January comes to a close. I'd be shocked if it gets below +2 for EWR, LGA, TTN, and below +1.5 for NYC and JFK. 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Wow, how in the world are we going to bring those massive temperatures way down especially given the potential for another big time torch as January comes to a close. I'd be shocked if it gets below +2 for EWR, LGA, TTN, and below +1.5 for NYC and JFK.

Who cares. You prob only make a small dent in 20 days of plus 6. With 5 days of minus 10. Why not just worry about what jan 20 to feb 15 could bring you. If that period winds up plus 6 then I see a point. You are not going to change the past 3 weeks so who cares. After ths 7 day shot of cold air we prob modify again for 3 to 5 days. Then see if the MJO and the NAO can deal you a longer cold shot.

For now enjoy the next 7 days. If u like cold

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

With 2/3 (20 days) of January done here's how we stand.  Lets see how much the next week (1/21 - 1/28) can cut down these significant plus departures. 

 

 

NYC: +5.9

EWR: +7.2

LGA:  +6.3

JFK:  +5.9

TTN: +6.7

 

I'll guess NYC will end up +3.0 to +4.0.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

I'll guess NYC will end up +3.0 to +4.0.

Most guidance and associated ensembles show a pretty formidable lakes cutter by the middle/end (1/29 - 1/31) of next week.  This would send a push of warm air to the east coast ahead of an eventual front and likely push temps above to much above normal for a day to two to end the month.  With that potential I think you're numbers are right in line perhaps a bit high.  Beyond next's week potential lakes cutter, temps do look to chill down as we head into the first few days of feb and perhaps beyond.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Most guidance and associated ensembles show a pretty formidable lakes cutter by the middle/end (1/29 - 1/31) of next week.  This would send a push of warm air to the east coast ahead of an eventual front and likely push temps above to much above normal for a day to two to end the month.  With that potential I think you're numbers are right in line perhaps a bit high.  Beyond next's week potential lakes cutter, temps do look to chill down as we head into the first few days of feb and perhaps beyond.

 

During these -PDO Nina-like winter patterns, we often see very quick reversals of temperature with the waxing

and waning of the SE Ridge. But I agree that we should cool down again for the first week of February. The

departure for NYC may end up being closer to the +3 part of the range.

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Momza

Momza

Posted
Posted

Most guidance and associated ensembles show a pretty formidable lakes cutter by the middle/end (1/29 - 1/31) of next week.  This would send a push of warm air to the east coast ahead of an eventual front and likely push temps above to much above normal for a day to two to end the month.  With that potential I think you're numbers are right in line perhaps a bit high.  Beyond next's week potential lakes cutter, temps do look to chill down as we head into the first few days of feb and perhaps beyond.

Cold not following next weekend's event?

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