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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted

The ensembles did a great job picking up on the incoming colder regime.  It's going to feel really cold out there in comparison to what we've had, and it seems like it may want to stick around for a bit.  Kudos to those on here that saw this coming.  There were a couple that even suggested, way back when, that the colder air would be delayed not denied.  January 20th, specifically, was tossed around by a few back in the last week of december (I know PB was one), so we have to give credit where credit is due.  We'll have to wait and see how our snow chances work out, but at the very least, we'll finally have the cold air in place to support our obsession for a while.  Yay!!

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

I hope we can put to bed once and for all the talk in the last week on how this upcoming week was just goin to be normal or a few degrees below .

Even UPTON is on 3 snow events between Mon and Fri . - with a 5 day average of 10 below .

Think you are exeggerating here - for monday into tuesday they have snow forecasted snow showers - no mention of accumulation so that does not qualify as a snow event until they do- and the only other mention of a real event is Fridays - if you look at their official forecast for NYC regarding temps for NYC Manhatten here is the breakdown for departures from normal as of A.M. forecast:

Sun + 5

Mon -2

Tues -7

Wed -12

Thurs -12

Fri - 6

Sat -4

of course suburbs will average colder but NYC is not a average -10 departure for 5 days

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

Also we can put to bed some of the talk from days past that this was going to be a memorable arctic outbreak which it is not with temps in NYC in the single digits and highs in the teens as some here were predicting - this period will not even be mentioned in the future especially since this has been such a warm snowless winter so far......

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Think you are exeggerating here - for monday into tuesday they have snow forecasted snow showers - no mention of accumulation so that does not qualify as a snow event until they do- and the only other mention of a real event is Fridays - if you look at their official forecast for NYC regarding temps for NYC Manhatten here is the breakdown for departures from normal as of A.M. forecast:

 

Sun + 5

Mon -2

Tues -7

Wed -12

Thurs -12

Fri   - 6

Sat -4

 

of course suburbs will average colder but NYC is not a -10 departure for 5 days

 

Think the call , if you go back  and read ( ANY POST OF MINE )  was always from a MON TO THRS - 4 days , The reason Mon was the start day was that when all the model guidance told us thr trough would get to the east coast .

So please strike SUN  you will find that no where in any of my posts

MON -2 ( I THNK ITS 5 )

TUES - 7 ( I THINK ITS 10 )

WED - 12 ( I THINK THATS OK )

THRS - 12 ( I THNK THATS OK )

and would not be shocked if FRI IS 8 - 10 below ....  think minus 10 was a conservatitve call .

If you read your boys from upton last nite , they are even colder than that

 

That will get me 4 days avg minus 10- and I MADE THAT CALL 5 DAYS AGO .

 

As far as snowfall , your guys at UPTON lat nite have it snowing tues and thrs

not too mention every high res model now .

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BETWEEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DEFORMATION BANDING SETS UP. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE MORE OF 20 TO 1 AND 15 TO 1...WHICH IS
CHARACTERISTIC OF A DRIER SNOW.     think that qualifies    ur BOYS ...

Think you are exeggerating here - for monday into tuesday they have snow forecasted snow showers - no mention of accumulation so that does not qualify as a snow event until they do- and the only other mention of a real event is Fridays - if you look at their official forecast for NYC regarding temps for NYC Manhatten here is the breakdown for departures from normal as of A.M. forecast:

Sun + 5
Mon -2
Tues -7
Wed -12
Thurs -12
Fri - 6
Sat -4

of course suburbs will average colder but NYC is not a average -10 departure for 5 days
http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

Also we can put to bed some of the talk from days past that this was going to be a memorable arctic outbreak which it is not with temps in NYC in the single digits and highs in the teens as some here were predicting - this period will not even be mentioned in the future especially since this has been such a warm snowless winter so far......

 

Think you are exeggerating here - for monday into tuesday they have snow forecasted snow showers - no mention of accumulation so that does not qualify as a snow event until they do- and the only other mention of a real event is Fridays - if you look at their official forecast for NYC regarding temps for NYC Manhatten here is the breakdown for departures from normal as of A.M. forecast:

Sun + 5
Mon -2
Tues -7
Wed -12
Thurs -12
Fri - 6
Sat -4

of course suburbs will average colder but NYC is not a average -10 departure for 5 days
http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

Also we can put to bed some of the talk from days past that this was going to be a memorable arctic outbreak which it is not with temps in NYC in the single digits and highs in the teens as some here were predicting - this period will not even be mentioned in the future especially since this has been such a warm snowless winter so far......

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Think the call , if you go back  and read ( ANY POST OF MINE )  was always from a MON TO THRS - 4 days , The reason Mon was the start day was that when all the model guidance told us thr trough would get to the east coast .

So please strike SUN  you will find that no where in any of my posts

MON -2 ( I THNK ITS 5 )

TUES - 7 ( I THINK ITS 10 )

WED - 12 ( I THINK THATS OK )

THRS - 12 ( I THNK THATS OK )

and would not be shocked if FRI IS 8 - 10 below ....  think minus 10 was a conservatitve call .

If you read your boys from upton last nite , they are even colder than that

 

That will get me 4 days avg minus 10- and I MADE THAT CALL 5 DAYS AGO .

 

As far as snowfall , your guys at UPTON lat nite have it snowing tues and thrs

not too mention every high res model now .

My reply to you was regarding your statement about Uptons official forecast - not your forecast or the models - and where in that link I just posted does it mention snow for thursday in their official forecast ???

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

My reply to you was regarding your statement about Uptons official forecast - not your forecast or the models - and where in that link I just posted does it mention snow for thursday in their official forecast ???

 

My reply to you was regarding your statement about Uptons official forecast - not your forecast or the models - and where in that link I just posted does it mention snow for thursday in their official forecast ???

REGARDING PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW

WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BETWEEN MONDAY

AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY

THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON

THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS

DEPENDING ON WHERE BEST DEFORMATION BANDING SETS UP. SNOW TO

LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE MORE OF 20 TO 1 AND 15 TO 1...WHICH IS

CHARACTERISTIC OF A DRIER SNOW. think that qualifies ur BOYS ...

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MUCH MORE CHARACTERISTIC WINTER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEK MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. STILL BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL CAUSE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES AND THESE WIND CHILLS WILL BE REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS AT TIMES DURING
THIS PERIOD.
 

My reply to you was regarding your statement about Uptons official forecast - not your forecast or the models - and where in that link I just posted does it mention snow for thursday in their official forecast ???

 

 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

MUCH MORE CHARACTERISTIC WINTER WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS WEEK MONDAY

THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD WITH HIGHS ABOUT 5

DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL

TUESDAY...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND

AGAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. STILL BELOW NORMAL

MAX TEMPS THEREAFTER. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH

THURSDAY WILL CAUSE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE TO DROP FURTHER BELOW

THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES AND THESE WIND CHILLS WILL BE REACHING INTO

THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS AT TIMES DURING

THIS PERIOD.

 

you notice that their discussion differs from their actual prediction in the zone forecasts for NYC ?? in the zones says low 15 -20 high mid 20's - discussion has highs in upper teens to low 20's

 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS AN

AMPLIFIED TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING

AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU. WIND CHILLS WILL

BE GETTING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR LATE NIGHTS/EARLY

MORNING ACROSS THE CITY/COAST...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS

NORTHERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS

TO LOWER 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS

MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE UNDERCUT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU AS

GUIDANCE IS TYPICALLY TOO WARM IN THESE PROLONGED CAA SITUATIONS.

COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXED LOW-LEVEL WILL GENERALLY KEEP

OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST

AND SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WINDOWS

FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH NIGHTS WHICH WOULD ALLOW AIR TEMPS TO

FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS FOR A WHILE. 

 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

you notice that their discussion differs from their actual prediction in the zone forecasts for NYC ?? in the zones says low 15 -20 high mid 20's - discussion has highs in upper teens to low 20's

 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS AN

AMPLIFIED TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING

AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU. WIND CHILLS WILL

BE GETTING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR LATE NIGHTS/EARLY

MORNING ACROSS THE CITY/COAST...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS

NORTHERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS

TO LOWER 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS

MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE UNDERCUT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU AS

GUIDANCE IS TYPICALLY TOO WARM IN THESE PROLONGED CAA SITUATIONS.

COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXED LOW-LEVEL WILL GENERALLY KEEP

OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST

AND SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WINDOWS

FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH NIGHTS WHICH WOULD ALLOW AIR TEMPS TO

FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS FOR A WHILE. 

 

 

you notice that their discussion differs from their actual prediction in the zone forecasts for NYC ?? in the zones says low 15 -20 high mid 20's - discussion has highs in upper teens to low 20's

 

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

COLDEST WEATHER OF THE SEASON EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS AN

AMPLIFIED TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE RANGING

AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED AND THU. WIND CHILLS WILL

BE GETTING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR LATE NIGHTS/EARLY

MORNING ACROSS THE CITY/COAST...AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS

NORTHERN ZONES. MAX TEMPS ON WED AND THU WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS

TO LOWER 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS

MUCH OF THE DAY. HAVE UNDERCUT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON THU AS

GUIDANCE IS TYPICALLY TOO WARM IN THESE PROLONGED CAA SITUATIONS.

COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXED LOW-LEVEL WILL GENERALLY KEEP

OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST

AND SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR. BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WINDOWS

FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH NIGHTS WHICH WOULD ALLOW AIR TEMPS TO

FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS FOR A WHILE. 

 

Dude , you left out oh i dont know MON AND TUES  lol  The  entry say Mon - Fri ..... whats with only posting wed to sat lol . .  post there forecast for mon - tues - wed - thrs  .. see if it doesnt add up to 5- 10 below normal ( which isnt gona be cold enough )  but im giving them the benefit of the doubt  .

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

This will be the first -10 degree or lower winter temperature departures for NYC

since we saw only 2 days last January.

 

 

 4  27  13  20 -13  45   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.7 16 290   M    M   2        22 310 5  40  27  34   1  31   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.2 16 300   M    M   7        22 320 6  53  35  44  11  21   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 14 230   M    M   1        22 230 7  62  46  54  21  11   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 15 250   M    M   0        23 280 8  46  33  40   7  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.8 16 290   M    M   2        24 300 9  41  31  36   4  29   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.6 14 240   M    M   1        20 23010  47  33  40   8  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.3 14 270   M    M   5 8      18 27011  48  37  43  11  22   0 0.07  0.0    0  5.7 14  70   M    M   2 1      20  7012  45  41  43  11  22   0 1.38  0.0    0  9.2 30  50   M    M  10 1      40  7013  50  28  39   7  26   0 0.09    T    0 11.3 25 230   M    M   7 18     36 24014  32  27  30  -2  35   0    T    T    0  8.7 17 270   M    M   7        25 27015  27  15  21 -11  44   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.8 17 280   M    M   1        25 280

 

 

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

This will be the first -10 degree or lower winter temperature departures for NYC

since we saw only 2 days last January.

 

 

 4  27  13  20 -13  45   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.7 16 290   M    M   2        22 310 5  40  27  34   1  31   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.2 16 300   M    M   7        22 320 6  53  35  44  11  21   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 14 230   M    M   1        22 230 7  62  46  54  21  11   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.9 15 250   M    M   0        23 280 8  46  33  40   7  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.8 16 290   M    M   2        24 300 9  41  31  36   4  29   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.6 14 240   M    M   1        20 23010  47  33  40   8  25   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.3 14 270   M    M   5 8      18 27011  48  37  43  11  22   0 0.07  0.0    0  5.7 14  70   M    M   2 1      20  7012  45  41  43  11  22   0 1.38  0.0    0  9.2 30  50   M    M  10 1      40  7013  50  28  39   7  26   0 0.09    T    0 11.3 25 230   M    M   7 18     36 24014  32  27  30  -2  35   0    T    T    0  8.7 17 270   M    M   7        25 27015  27  15  21 -11  44   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.8 17 280   M    M   1        25 280

 

 

attachicon.gifD3.gif

Man that is sad..I can't remember in my 54 year old life..two winters this warm and snowless in a row

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Back into the 50s after mid 50s yesterday, nice forecast by me from last weekend

yes congrats - seems like the the warmth is the only thing outperforming this winter so far - now lets see if old man winter can step up to the plate and hit one out this week.............only 21 days till pitchers and catchers report !
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JBG

JBG

Posted
Posted

Man that is sad..I can't remember in my 54 year old life..two winters this warm and snowless in a row

We had back to back disasters in 1996-7, 1997-8 and 1998-9.  Also 2006-7 and 2007-8 were pretty dismal.  And don't forget about 1989-90 (one cold month), 1990-1 (a cold day or two) and 1991-2 (cold until some late season slop in March, followed by a G-d awful summer).

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

Man that is sad..I can't remember in my 54 year old life..two winters this warm and snowless in a row

it's like the early 1930's around here now...100 degree heat every summer and drought in the west...mild snowless winters...then came 1933-34 to 1935-36...We had our ups and downs before and probably will see a great winter after this warm cycle...

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

Winds picking up but remain a WSW-SW flow here in Port Jefferson, LI, with temp steady at 54. I'm using Wunderground wind maps to try and point out this dry cold front but is there another better way?

 

Some PWS's are recording about a 3 degree dew point drop in the last 20 mins on the south shore. Think the front is passing. But temps won't plummet until the sun gets low.

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