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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

Snow88 I really hope not but I don't see anything that shows this pattern changing for more then a couple of days!!! Im praying dt and others are correct but even dt said he was going against what one of the models we're showing I think it was the euro and it showed a Nice storm for the midwest around Christmas but still the same **** here and he said he thinks it's wrong so im still holding out some hope but after last year and then this month might be one of the warmest ever.. I don't have much hope but that's good cause ill be pleasantly surprised if im wrong witch is fine by me..

Relax man, its just weather, wow.

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

From DT's Facebook page:

Even though it may appear ... At first glance ..just by looking at some of the actual models for day 9 in 10 that my much talked about / anticipated East Coast winter storm is NOT going to develop or that it may be more the Midwest event. Well if you going to do that then you need to know that your analysis is seriously flawed and it's probable that you don't know which are talking about. The new data here indicates that we are not just going to see a significant blocking pattern in the jet stream over Eastern Canada but that we are going to see a SPECIAL or unusual configuration known as a REX BLOCK.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

From DT's Facebook page:

Even though it may appear ... At first glance ..just by looking at some of the actual models for day 9 in 10 that my much talked about / anticipated East Coast winter storm is NOT going to develop or that it may be more the Midwest event. Well if you going to do that then you need to know that your analysis is seriously flawed and it's probable that you don't know which are talking about. The new data here indicates that we are not just going to see a significant blocking pattern in the jet stream over Eastern Canada but that we are going to see a SPECIAL or unusual configuration known as a REX BLOCK.

even though i don't like him I hope he is correct - as for JB his motivations are driven by the dollar bill....

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

The 18z GEFS have a Miller B for the Boxing Day Event.

18zgfsensemblep12228.gif

That looks like a wave of low pressure to me; a Miller B is generally considered a significant mid latitude cyclone, no?

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

I swear we've must have been at Day 10 since a week ago when it came to possible storms/changes but at least it will get colder as it normally should. I didn't really expect us to stay in the upper 40s and 50s for the next two months. I know our winters are warmer but it's not that warm yet.

I say colder because it'll probably still be near or perhaps slightly below normal starting this weekend. If we do get a cutter like the gfs shows then we would get a lot colder after it passes.

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

That looks like a wave of low pressure to me; a Miller B is generally considered a significant mid latitude cyclone, no?

Yes.

The difference here, is that the image above is a smoothed out mean that is comprised of many GFS Ensemble members. Since many members disagree on the track and intensity of the low pressure system, because of the forecast uncertainty in the 9-10 day range, the resulting Low Pressure is thus weaker on the mean. The general idea on the mean is that a primary Ohio Lakes low pressure transfers to a coastal system.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

This December most probably will end up averaging over 40.0...It's a bad sign for snow lovers but it can still get fridgid...

Here are some winters with a very cold 30 day period but the rest of the winter wasn't...

winter.....Temp...30 days...other 60 days...

1956-57.....35.6.....27.8.....39.5

1984-85.....36.4.....27.5.....40.9

1999-00.....36.2.....26.2.....41.2

2006-07.....36.5.....25.8.....41.8

These winters started out quite mild...December averaged over 40...2006-07 had it's cold spell in February...The other three in January and February became mild again...Who knows if it will get as cold as these years did after a mild December...The models continue their long range pattern change...If it happens will it get as cold as these years?...TWT...

2003-04 averaged 32.4...22.5 for 30 days which means the other 60 averaged 37.4...

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Yes.

The difference here, is that the image above is a smoothed out mean that is comprised of many GFS Ensemble members. Since many members disagree on the track and intensity of the low pressure system, because of the forecast uncertainty in the 9-10 day range, the resulting Low Pressure is thus weaker on the mean. The general idea on the mean is that a primary Ohio Lakes low pressure transfers to a coastal system.

Ok, thank you for the explanation...though I've looked at many of the general models probably since I first had internet access in the late 1990's...I started looking at the GFS ensembles only in the last year or so...I did know it showed a mean of multiple potential outcomes...but it never really came to mind that any disturbance's surface reflection would show up much weaker in the mean's image.

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Wannabehippie

Wannabehippie

Posted
Posted

From DT's Facebook page:

Even though it may appear ... At first glance ..just by looking at some of the actual models for day 9 in 10 that my much talked about / anticipated East Coast winter storm is NOT going to develop or that it may be more the Midwest event. Well if you going to do that then you need to know that your analysis is seriously flawed and it's probable that you don't know which are talking about. The new data here indicates that we are not just going to see a significant blocking pattern in the jet stream over Eastern Canada but that we are going to see a SPECIAL or unusual configuration known as a REX BLOCK.

What is a Rex block?

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

What's the largest snowfall you've seen in Elko? Winter storm warning criteria is about 0.5" out there right?

:lol: no its the same as here, 6". Most winters the max has been 7-8". Last winter, which was actually the least snowy since I've been there, we had a foot... but it as March so we only had 6" on the ground at one time.

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted

What is a Rex block?

Basically a 1040 high in Canada with an adjacent 50/50 low.

My problem with dts forecast is that those high pressure signatures get weaker or disappears before the lakes cutter verifies. If he's right and the models are goofy we win. He needs to put out a classic what can go wrong post, because that is what can go wrong.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Snow flurries and snow showers possible this weekend

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F18%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=700_rh_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=093&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

GFS shows a cold weekend . Lows in the mid to upper 20s.

Cold, but seasonably cold...looking at the next few images...might be less than the mid-upper 20's if the winds subside...which doesn't look likely as a stiff northwesterly flow should set in. Should see first widespread lake effect...roughly one month behind schedule.

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