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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

January 2009 had a maximum of 16F with 850s of -24C. Models are showing 850s of around -20C on Wednedsay this coming week. You would expect highs to be about 8-9F warmer (850s are 6F warmer, and adding a few degrees for snow cover). However, the Jan 2009 arctic outbreak came with mostly clear skies; a fly in the ointment is we have a shortwave moving through the area Tuesday and Wednesday. If the shortwave sets off cloud cover or snow showers, the temperature will stay colder. I also like the direction of the cold as it's more a direct show from eastern Canada rather than WNW flow off the Plains. 

Cloud cover will prevent it from getting that cold at night.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Manhattan will definitely get colder than 20F...with 850s of -19C Tuesday night and -22C Wednesday night, NYC should definitely get into the teens, even accounting for some cloud cover. Single digits is a possibility Wednesday night if skies are clear. Based on the 0z ECM and 6z GFS, Upton is being very conservative with the arctic outbreak. OKX currently has lows around 15F in Westchester; I think that's going to be the minimum for Manhattan whereas Westchester almost definitely sees single digits.

The lowest temp for next week as of this morning Upton is forecasting for Manhatten is 20 degrees - 2 days next week avg should be about 8 - 9 degrees below normal at the height of the current arctic outbreak

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
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I think the arctic shot will overperform as they often tend to do just like heat waves tend to be greater than forecast. Arctic air has a lot of power, temperatures are barely budging right now (30F in East Brunswick off a low of 29F) with very low dews, I think we will definitely see highs in the low 20s, maybe even upper teens for the suburbs early next week and lows in the single digits and maybe near or below zero for some of the burbs. 

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I believe we call this: screw zone.  DC-NYC corridor is KILLING IT!

 

cursnow_usa.gif

 

Actually if you take out that snow in the SE, that is a pretty pathetic snow cover picture for the lower 48 in mid Jan.

Brother , thats gona get fixed in the next 7 - 10 days

DC to Boston

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I hope so man.  Cold with NO snow will just piss me off.  If it's not going to snow, I might as well be in Miami.

Look how models missed the low level cold air today , sitting in mid 20`s . think next week mon - thrs its cold , 84 hr Nam ( at end of its range ) snows in the low 20`s , The Euro sun ( end of its range ) snows close to 20 degrees.

So the models see the cold , just dont know if I can bite on snow yet , you get that cold , you sometimes end up dry . Lets see if we can cook up Tues first . The other too far too look yet

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sussexcountyobs

sussexcountyobs

Posted
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I just went for a run, and it's brutal here tonight... Could easily see teens in the suburbs before warm air advection starts. Westchester never got out of the 20s today.

Briefly made it up to 23.1 here today. Forecast high was upper 20s. Forecast low is 18. Guess it aint gunna drop much more? 17.4 out now...
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uofmiami

uofmiami

Posted
Posted

Ant, when you get on the NYPD, you should move up here to Orange Co., or do they require you to live in the city proper? I have a buddy I used to work with, whose on the FDNY, he lives in Goshen, Orange Co..

I think the city residency requirement no longer exists. We have public sector clients that work in NYC & live outside NYC boroughs.

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