Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[NEG NAO]

Looking at the 12z GFS, I chuckled thinking that as the low started going up the coast, said to itself "Oh yeah, no snow for I-95, almost forgot!" and does a hard right OTS...

seems like the immediate NYC metro - again the immediate metro is in the "screw zone" so far for snow and if we don't get any by monday the 21st will be below last years total snow so far - we are already above last year in the temperature department BUT after next week will be colder then last year again if everything goes as progged.........snowfall the rest of the month - unknown........

[PB GFI]

It doesn't want to snow in the big cities anymore.

Sometimes there are years when you get southern branch energy , there`s no cold air available .

And when you have a deep vortex at your disposal - its just dry .

It happens . 2 great winters , follwed by 2 bad ones , just avergaes you out . Doesn`t seem like it now but in 10 yrs when you look at a past 10yrs average it will all be one big blur.

[NorEaster27]

Near normal? For Monday-Wednesday, we will have solid -10 or greater readings with highs from the mid 20s to around 30 and lows probably in the upper teens. Clearly not the ice box that models showed (possibly due to lack of snow cover) but it will definitely feel cold for many.

Don't agree highs will be mid 20s to near 30 with lows in the lower 20s. Maybe we can squeak a day of a -10 departure but I doubt we finish this month below average.

[TWCCraig]

The CFS isn't that great but it shows something for Tuesday.

 

[SnoSki14]

Don't agree highs will be mid 20s to near 30 with lows in the lower 20s. Maybe we can squeak a day of a -10 departure but I doubt we finish this month below average.

 

I never thought we would finish the month below average, it would be extremely difficult to do unless maybe we had those icebox temps the models had a few days ago. Probably +1 to +2 for the month but a huge difference to where we started. 

[Snowshack]

The CFS isn't that great but it shows something for Tuesday.

 

In the midst of this winter...that is great!

[TWCCraig]

In the midst of this winter...that is great!

 

I meant the model isn't that great for tracking storms and the QPF within a 160hrs, mainly because it's a long range model, correct me if I'm wrong. Still a good possibility, agree, especially the way this winter has been, I'd like even just an inch at this point. 

[NEG NAO]

CPC has us with normal to below normal temps and above normal precip in the 6 - 10 day and above normal temps and precip in the 8 -14 day - if true with the above normal temps the last few days temps finish above to much normal for the month ...... snow ??? unknown

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

according to Upton next week through mid week is going to have only a couple days with much below normal temps in NYC lows in the lower 20's highs in the upper 20's for the city then by next Thursday moderating back for highs in the mid 30's which is close to normal - a far cry from what the models were advertising a few days ago with frigid temps......

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

[nzucker]

CPC has us with normal to below normal temps and above normal precip in the 6 - 10 day and above normal temps and precip in the 8 -14 day - if true with the above normal temps the last few days temps finish above to much normal for the month ...... snow ??? unknown

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

according to Upton next week through mid week is going to have only a couple days with much below normal temps in NYC lows in the lower 20's highs in the upper 20's for the city then by next Thursday moderating back for highs in the mid 30's which is close to normal - a far cry from what the models were advertising a few days ago with frigid temps......

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

 

 

CPC has us with normal to below normal temps and above normal precip in the 6 - 10 day and above normal temps and precip in the 8 -14 day - if true with the above normal temps the last few days temps finish above to much normal for the month ...... snow ??? unknown

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

according to Upton next week through mid week is going to have only a couple days with much below normal temps in NYC lows in the lower 20's highs in the upper 20's for the city then by next Thursday moderating back for highs in the mid 30's which is close to normal - a far cry from what the models were advertising a few days ago with frigid temps......

http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html

I personally think Upton is way too warm with the forecast...they have upper 20s for highs here in the suburbs. With 850s near -20C in the dead of winter, I don't see us getting much past 20F. Upton already goes towards climo in the longer-range forecasts, you should know that. We'll definitely see a string of -10F departures next week at NYC. The 12z ECM was extremely cold...don't know what you're looking at. 

[NEG NAO]

if I am just posting fForecasts  from CPC and Upton don't make it sound like they are my forecasts

[Rjay]

All i know is Steve thinks he's being cautious..somehow. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2013/01/17/concerning-trends-need-to-be-addressed-for-tonight

[uncle W]

we have not felt a day with a max in the teens since 2009...I doubt we will see one this year...We have only one day with a max of 32...the record is two set in 1952-53...The highest winter lowest max was 31 set in 2001-02...Last year we had a day with a max of 27...Last year also crushed the record for the least amount of minimum days below freezing...1931-32 had its coldest max on March 15th...

Year.....  low max.....
2011-12.......27.......
2010-11.......23.......
2009-10.......20.......
2008-09.......16.......
2007-08.......20.......
2006-07.......18.......
2005-06.......24.......
2004-05.......18.......
2003-04.......15.......
2002-03.......15.......
2001-02.......31.......
2000-01.......25.......
1999-00.......19.......
1998-99.......25.......
1997-98.......29.......
1996-97.......17.......

1995-96.......17.......
1994-95.......20.......
1993-94.......10.......
1992-93.......27.......
1991-92.......23.......
1990-91.......20.......
1989-90.......18.......
1988-89.......20.......
1987-88.......17.......
1986-87.......19.......
1985-86.......22.......
1984-85.........9.......
1983-84.......13.......
1982-83.......21.......
1981-82.......15.......
1980-81.......14.......
1979-80.......21.......
1978-79.......13.......

1977-78.......21.......
1976-77.......12.......
1975-76.......15.......
1974-75.......27.......
1973-74.......22.......
1972-73.......18.......
1971-72.......15.......
1970-71.......12.......
1969-70.......14.......
1968-69.......22.......
1967-68.......13.......
1966-67.......16.......
1965-66.......19.......
1964-65.......16.......
1963-64.......22.......
1962-63.......13.......
1961-62.......24.......
1960-61.......19.......

1959-60.......23.......
1958-59.......22.......
1957-58.......10.......
1956-57.......12.......
1955-56.......18.......
1954-55.......17.......
1953-54.......21.......
1952-53.......29.......
1951-52.......20.......
1950-51.......20.......
1949-50.......22.......
1948-49.......22.......
1947-48.......18.......
.....................................................................
1942-43.........8.......
1935-36.......16.......
1934-35.......16.......
1933-34.........8.......

1931-32.......26.......
1917-18.........2.......
.........................................................................................................................................

[nzucker]

we have not felt a day with a max in the teens since 2009...I doubt we will see one this year...We have only one day with a max of 32...the record is two set in 1952-53...The highest winter lowest max was 31 set in 2001-02...Last year we had a day with a max of 27...Last year also crushed the record for the least amount of minimum days below freezing...

 

That low max of 31F from 01-02 really stands out....what a mild winter that was, and only 8" fell here. 

 

We all knew the best part of this winter was going to be from mid-Jan to mid-Feb. Let's let it play out before we make any judgments. If Wednesday delivers cloud cover with -20C 850s, NYC might stay in the teens. At the very least, next week should rack up 3-4 days with 32F maximums or lower as well as every night being well below freezing. I don't see us setting any of the "mild" records with the next 10 days being basically frigid. 

[uncle W]

That low max of 31F from 01-02 really stands out....what a mild winter that was, and only 8" fell here. 

 

We all knew the best part of this winter was going to be from mid-Jan to mid-Feb. Let's let it play out before we make any judgments. If Wednesday delivers cloud cover with -20C 850s, NYC might stay in the teens. At the very least, next week should rack up 3-4 days with 32F maximums or lower as well as every night being well below freezing. I don't see us setting any of the "mild" records with the next 10 days being basically frigid. 

I doubt it gets that cold...It will probably be more like mid 20's for highs if that...

[NEG NAO]

I doubt it gets that cold...It will probably be more like mid 20's for highs if that...

I agree and Upton will be close if we have no snow cover - IF there was snow cover temps would be several degrees colder - and there will be a big difference in temps in those area with snow cover especially overnight lows

[uncle W]

I have not givin up on this winter just for the record...It probably will have above average temperatures and below average snowfall...snowfall is tricky because one big storm like 2006 makes it above average...This winter is a little like 1931-32 with the warmth and biggest snowfall in November...It had it's coldest day on March 15th...2001-02 had it's coldest temp in March...Will this year have a cold March?...Or coldest temp in March?...TWT...

[nzucker]

I doubt it gets that cold...It will probably be more like mid 20's for highs if that...

 

January 2009 had a maximum of 16F with 850s of -24C. Models are showing 850s of around -20C on Wednedsay this coming week. You would expect highs to be about 8-9F warmer (850s are 6F warmer, and adding a few degrees for snow cover). However, the Jan 2009 arctic outbreak came with mostly clear skies; a fly in the ointment is we have a shortwave moving through the area Tuesday and Wednesday. If the shortwave sets off cloud cover or snow showers, the temperature will stay colder. I also like the direction of the cold as it's more a direct show from eastern Canada rather than WNW flow off the Plains. 

[NEG NAO]

All i know is Steve thinks he's being cautious..somehow. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2013/01/17/concerning-trends-need-to-be-addressed-for-tonight

1 - 3 inches ???? No Comment

[famartin]

January 2009 had a maximum of 16F with 850s of -24C. Models are showing 850s of around -20C on Wednedsay this coming week. You would expect highs to be about 8-9F warmer (850s are 6F warmer, and adding a few degrees for snow cover). However, the Jan 2009 arctic outbreak came with mostly clear skies; a fly in the ointment is we have a shortwave moving through the area Tuesday and Wednesday. If the shortwave sets off cloud cover or snow showers, the temperature will stay colder. I also like the direction of the cold as it's more a direct show from eastern Canada rather than WNW flow off the Plains. 

 

Depends on the orientation of the shortwave.  If you get into the mixed area ahead of it then it could warm up without much sun.

[nzucker]

I have not givin up on this winter just for the record...It probably will have above average temperatures and below average snowfall...snowfall is tricky because one big storm like 2006 makes it above average...This winter is a little like 1931-32 with the warmth and biggest snowfall in November...It had it's coldest day on March 15th...2001-02 had it's coldest temp in March...Will this year have a cold March?...Or coldest temp in March?...TWT...

 

If the winter continues to perform poorly, I could see snowfall being average to slightly above average for the suburbs but below average for NYC itself...I have around 17" here which is near average, whereas Central Park is falling below average. Nickel and dime events, as well as marginal events, favor the NW suburbs strongly. I think temperatures will end up near normal...I am counting November as part of this winter because it was as cold as December and had two snowfalls here, 8.0" and 0.5"...November was well below normal, December well above normal, and January should finish just above normal in temperatures. I think February is cold because of a bitter, snowy start...March remains to be seen but I suspect will be MUCH more wintry than recent Marches. 

 

I have a lot of hope for the last two weeks of January and early February. The PNA spike next week should lead to arctic cold and the potential for snow squalls with a storm around Day 9-10. Who knows where that storm will track? But it should start off as snow here with the antecedent airmass being around -20C at 850mb. Then, the stratospheric warming leaves behind high heights over Greenland and the North Pole, leading to a classic -AO/-NAO signal to start February. This would be the period for a KU snowstorm since the Kelvin Wave/MJO should keep the PNA positive. I think later in February, a more gradient pattern emerges as the PNA tanks, but blocking holds. 

[uncle W]

there have been -pna months that were cold...warm ones that were plus...The cold has been a week to ten day out all winter...It will get here eventually but I have no faith in the models this year...I started to look at the pna for years with a cold january and mild February...I found 1970-71 had a munus pna all of january and it was a very cold month...The pna was minus in January 1957 another cold month

 

[SnowGoose69]

there have been -pna months that were cold...warm ones that were plus...The cold has been a week to ten day out all winter...It will get here eventually but I have no faith in the models this year...I started to look at the pna for years with a cold january and mild February...I found 1970-71 had a munus pna all of january and it was a very cold month...The pna was minus in January 1957 another cold month

 

For all the crazy stuff Joe B has said he was harping back 4-5 years ago that he felt the Northeast was headed for some lousy winters in the coming decade or beyond because of the PDO change and more dominant Ninas.  I'm not sure if we can swing the Atlantic phase which may be about to change soon if that would help our cause a bit because we're looking at 20 years maybe of this -PDO deal..it seems harder to get decent El Ninos in the -PDO phase than a La Nina in the +PDO phase.

[Guest Pamela]

For all the crazy stuff Joe B has said he was harping back 4-5 years ago that he felt the Northeast was headed for some lousy winters in the coming decade or beyond because of the PDO change and more dominant Ninas.  I'm not sure if we can swing the Atlantic phase which may be about to change soon if that would help our cause a bit because we're looking at 20 years maybe of this -PDO deal..it seems harder to get decent El Ninos in the -PDO phase than a La Nina in the +PDO phase.

 

I don't even fully understand some of the things you have said; but for anyone to claim insight into the type of winters one part of the world is likely to have for the coming 20 years is a little way out...

[uncle W]

For all the crazy stuff Joe B has said he was harping back 4-5 years ago that he felt the Northeast was headed for some lousy winters in the coming decade or beyond because of the PDO change and more dominant Ninas.  I'm not sure if we can swing the Atlantic phase which may be about to change soon if that would help our cause a bit because we're looking at 20 years maybe of this -PDO deal..it seems harder to get decent El Ninos in the -PDO phase than a La Nina in the +PDO phase.

if he thought that way his forecast went against it...climate is all about cycles and we could be seeing a change to lesser amounts of precip and less snowfall...Not to mention less cold...

[SnowGoose69]

if he thought that way his forecast went against it...climate is all about cycles and we could be seeing a change to lesser amounts of precip and less snowfall...Not to mention less cold...

 

I think he may have went warm in 10-11 if I remember right

[uncle W]

I think he may have went warm in 10-11 if I remember right

well if he did he was wrong big time...it averaged lower than the long term average...

[Hailstorm]

For all the crazy stuff Joe B has said he was harping back 4-5 years ago that he felt the Northeast was headed for some lousy winters in the coming decade or beyond because of the PDO change and more dominant Ninas. I'm not sure if we can swing the Atlantic phase which may be about to change soon if that would help our cause a bit because we're looking at 20 years maybe of this -PDO deal..it seems harder to get decent El Ninos in the -PDO phase than a La Nina in the +PDO phase.

Last winter, you predicted that 2013-2014 will feature an El Nino winter, but not for the current 2012-2013. You have turned out to be correct so far. However, it appears as if a weak La Nina may be emerging for this coming summer. Thus, are you still holding on to that prediction?

[NEG NAO]

Alan Kasper this morning on the radio forecasted highs for early next week in the lower 30's in NJ maybe a day in the upper 20's - clearly he thinks on  some guidance temps are too low...........

 

http://nj1015.com/weather/

[nzucker]

Alan Kasper this morning on the radio forecasted highs for early next week in the lower 30's in NJ maybe a day in the upper 20's - clearly he thinks on  some guidance temps are too low...........

 

http://nj1015.com/weather/

Long-range forecasts have to lean towards climo; you should know that by now. The 0z ECM actually trended colder with the arctic shot Tuesday-Thursday as well as being much colder and snowier in the long-range as the storm tracks south of us at Day 9 with heavy snow and -16C 850s thereafter. 

 

I think people are forgetting how cold it can get here just because of Winter 11-12 and the mild start in December 2012 to this winter. With 850s of -20C to -24C, we could see highs in the teens to low 20s at best. I think everyone stays around 20F at least one day, if not two. The NWS has been reducing my forecast temperatures for next week in Westchester from the upper 20s to the mid 20s, and that may be too warm, even with minimal snow cover. This is a true arctic airmass originating from the polar vortex. 

[ag3]

Long-range forecasts have to lean towards climo; you should know that by now. The 0z ECM actually trended colder with the arctic shot Tuesday-Thursday as well as being much colder and snowier in the long-range as the storm tracks south of us at Day 9 with heavy snow and -16C 850s thereafter.

I think people are forgetting how cold it can get here just because of Winter 11-12 and the mild start in December 2012 to this winter. With 850s of -20C to -24C, we could see highs in the teens to low 20s at best. I think everyone stays around 20F at least one day, if not two. The NWS has been reducing my forecast temperatures for next week in Westchester from the upper 20s to the mid 20s, and that may be too warm, even with minimal snow cover. This is a true arctic airmass originating from the polar vortex.

Euro has a couple days with highs in the upper teens/low 20s and lows of 9-12 degrees next week.

That's for NYC, based off soundings.

Suburbs probably get below zero.