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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

ok folks - I just made a reasonable post above with an idea and I made no personal attacks - and I hope the moderator sees the personal attacks against me in the posts following - no reason for it ......and this all started when I was attacked for saying one word expressing an opinion - the word "ouch" - that post I first made made reference only to a model run - nobody else -- and then BX went after me telling me not to post

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
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I thnk some of you should sue the models for pain and suffering due to dissappointment . Its weather and no one controls it .

If its 32 or 41 is it really going to change youre life ? If seeing a 3 day high temp forecasted of 42 enrages you , you need to start worrying about big boy things .

But some of you are making a pastime out of complaining because the models drop a snowstorm or increase you`re temps . Sure this is banter but its the incessant crying that makes pp weary of reading through some of this stuff .

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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ok folks - I just made a reasonable post above with an idea and I made no personal attacks - and I hope the moderator sees the personal attacks against me in the posts following - no reason for it ......and this all started when I was attacked for saying one word expressing an opinion - the word "ouch" - that post I first made made reference only to a model run - nobody else -- and then BX went after me telling me not to post

Because as Earthlight pointed out before there is no need for it. It has snowed before and it will snow again. The chances of a SECS within the next two weeks seem to be rising.
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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted

ok folks - I just made a reasonable post above with an idea and I made no personal attacks - and I hope the moderator sees the personal attacks against me in the posts following - no reason for it ......and this all started when I was attacked for saying one word expressing an opinion - the word "ouch" - that post I first made made reference only to a model run - nobody else -- and then BX went after me telling me not to post

You have much larger body of work when it comes to this kind of stuff, and you're not fooling anyone by trying to play the victim..

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
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This is beginning to get real interesting as part of the""" NYC Metro """according to the 12Z GFS could be in for a snowy surprise later thursday and friday

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06042.gif

Look at the influence of the northern stream and its refusal to allow moisture north. The whole thing shears out and eventually is forced out to sea. This won't be any kind of snow event for most of us without some kind of cooperation from the northern branch. Almost every other model shows it as a non-event north of maybe AC (more than say 2").

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

I got an idea to stop this bickering - we should have 2 banter threads going this season since there is such a difference in the weather conditions in this broad based NYC Metro forum - its 2 different worlds this season in the area because of all the borderline events - and unfortunately most of the posters have not had much snow so far this season - and how are we supposed to know if someone got 4 inches if they are far north and west of the region ??? BUT they know that the majority of the metro had just rain and sleet this go around and a few of the other events so far. As far as your comment about my "negative thoughts" - negative because many of them have been downplaying the cold and snow

Should SE Suffolk have its own banter thread if it rains there during a coastal storm which snows everywhere else and should Fairfield County, CT get its own thread if they get a good band from an arctic front that shafts everybody else?

 

It's frustrating for a lot of people but you can either move up to the Hudson Valley or CT, or accept that they're favored so far this year. They have a higher snowfall average than us for a reason.

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jm1220

jm1220

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How about you stop being so jealous and a :weenie: and take a chill pill. There is no reason for two banter threads. If the Poconos and Cape May can be in the same sub forum so can Middletown, NY and Bayshore Long Island.

Check out the Central PA thread from time to time-there you can literally go from 200"+/yr snowfall averages to 30-40"/year in 50 miles or so. It is one of the most chaotic places to forecast due to the changing overall regimes-from lake effect to upslope to SWFEs to cold air damming to nor'easters to you name it. When I lived there I watched prolific snow bands from Lake Erie die practically on my doorstep and watched dryslots from hell fly overhead while the low would re-develop in time for you guys. I had heavy snow while a few miles away would have sleet/ZR/rain and vice versa. Missing a few inch snow/sleet event is absolutely nothing compared to other regions. And they somehow survive with only one thread,

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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Check out the Central PA thread from time to time-there you can literally go from 200"+/yr snowfall averages to 30-40"/year in 50 miles or so. It is one of the most chaotic places to forecast due to the changing overall regimes-from lake effect to upslope to SWFEs to cold air damming to nor'easters to you name it. When I lived there I watched prolific snow bands from Lake Erie die practically on my doorstep and watched dryslots from hell fly overhead while the low would re-develop in time for you guys. I had heavy snow while a few miles away would have sleet/ZR/rain and vice versa. Missing a few inch snow/sleet event is absolutely nothing compared to other regions. And they somehow survive with only one thread,

+10. I think a lot of it has to do with some people living in NYC thinking that they live in the center of the universe and that everything else revolves around them. New York may be large but it's just another city in a world that's full of them.
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tim

tim

Posted
Posted

...its time to leave the computer OFF..this winter has been one disappointment after

another..this hobby has not produced in a very long time..as 'pb gfi' says i really

should be worrying about big boy stuff..this weather stuff is trivial..but it does hurt.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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like I said last week, looks like a nice mild weekend with a cool down to near normal on Monday. Models a week out for today had us in the ice box....

yep, the extreme cold has never verified except in NNE. I'll take it though, brutal cold is not likely to deliver any moisture of note (not that the pattern has delivered much anyway)
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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

like I said last week, looks like a nice mild weekend with a cool down to near normal on Monday. Models a week out for today had us in the ice box....

 

 

well it might be a few degrees below  normal for a couple of days - but the question now is if the arctic air takes off northeast and out or we get any reinforcements later next week - will make the difference between much above normal temps for the month or only a couple degrees above for NYC immediate metro -  also the impact from the arctic air  is even less without any snow cover - which is still in question next week.........

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Euro has been clear , Trough in Mon - Thrs prob average 5- 10 below normal during that period .

You may snow next Friday or Sat , followed by another trough next weekend . Week 4 of jan was always progged by the weeklies to be below normal

( This week ) , Week 3 was progged from 2 weeks ago to be just normal . So the weeklies are on track .

I know its a slow and painful process , but patterns dont change on a dime . yes temps are well above avg for the month and we cant buy a flake , but its getting better chillax . patience is required .

Ignore the GFS to the lakes next wknd BTW , Euro Ensembles agree with its operational .

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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like I said last week, looks like a nice mild weekend with a cool down to near normal on Monday. Models a week out for today had us in the ice box....

 

Near normal? For Monday-Wednesday, we will have solid -10 or greater readings with highs from the mid 20s to around 30 and lows probably in the upper teens. Clearly not the ice box that models showed (possibly due to lack of snow cover) but it will definitely feel cold for many.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
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Near normal? For Monday-Wednesday, we will have solid -10 or greater readings with highs from the mid 20s to around 30 and lows probably in the upper teens. Clearly not the ice box that models showed (possibly due to lack of snow cover) but it will definitely feel cold for many.

definetly nothing that will be memorable just regular winter cold for a few days - the PV not coming as far south as originally thought and lack of snow cover makes a big difference - plus the state of the NAO and the PNA not working together

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