Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[bluewave]

-18 to -20 850s is not extreme cold, its below normal but not close to extreme.

 

It looks like those numbers would translate into a low in the teens and a high in the 20's for NYC around

the peak of the cold.

 

 

[MJO812]

Looks like cold rain for the city and coast tonight!! Followed by basically cold and dry except for the warm up sat but after that Upton says it looks cold and dry with no precip except maybe flurries mon well n&w!!! Anyone see anything other then cold and dry that is just the worst pattern in my opinion! Wish we could have gotten a couple of inches before entering this poss cold and dry period..

 

The storm is over?I missed it?

[rcad1]

I would rather have slightly below normal temps with the chance of snow over frigid dry weather any day!!!!! So when do we think NYC metro will hvae there first chance of some real snow this season???

[KEITH L.I]

It looks like those numbers would translate into a low in the teens and a high in the 20's for NYC around

the peak day of the cold. It would be pretty funny if we couldn't even get as cold here as we did last

January for the low.

 

 

 1-4-12...27  13  20 -13

this winter and last winter are basically the same.Since the freak snowfall in early November I have had a trace here and the low has not been below 25 degrees..I mean come on..that's a joke..It's North Carolina weather

[rcad1]

Snow88 I consider the storm over for NYC and the coast. Unless you consider a cold rain possibly mixed with a couple of flakes a storm. Everything I've seen and heard says rain for the city and the coast tonight unless you see something I haven't ???

[MJO812]

Snow88 I consider the storm over for NYC and the coast. Unless you consider a cold rain possibly mixed with a couple of flakes a storm. Everything I've seen and heard says rain for the city and the coast tonight unless you see something I haven't ???

 

How can you say a storm is over when it didn't even start?

[Weathergun]

Typical winter conversion 850mb 18-20Cs in middle of winter would normally support highs 12-16F. But it really depends how long the core of the cold stays over us.

 

It looks like those numbers would translate into a low in the teens and a high in the 20's for NYC around

the peak of the cold.

[Mr Torchey]

How can you say a storm is over when it didn't even start?

Your optimism is admirable Anthony, good luck down there.

[MJO812]

Your optimism is admirable Anthony, good luck down there.

 

Ehh wish we had colder air in place

[NEG NAO]

It looks like those numbers would translate into a low in the teens and a high in the 20's for NYC around

the peak of the cold.

and that will only last a few days at most - since the NAO is positive - then warm up in time for more rain and then the cold comes back in and dry and sos on and so on - need the indicies to work together .......

[MJO812]

and that will only last a few days at most - since the NAO is positive

 

 

You have to look at other things other than the NAO . EPO,AO and PNA.

[NEG NAO]

You have to look at other things other than the NAO . EPO,AO and PNA.

you always make these kind of statements but you never explain what you mean

[MJO812]

you always make these kind of statements but you never explain what you mean

 

Like you do?

[rcad1]

Again have you heard or seen something this morn that shows NYC and the coast getting snow from this.. Ill rephrase it for you I think it's over snow wise for us again unless you have seen or heard something that says otherwise

[NEG NAO]

Like you do?

my statement was that the indicies have to work together for a favorable pattern for cold and snow - your statement "

You have to look at other things other than the NAO . EPO,AO and PNA." - WHAT OTHER THINGS ????/

[bluewave]

Typical winter conversion 850mb 18-20Cs in middle of winter would normally support highs 12-16F. But it really depends how long the core of the cold stays over us.

 

The last time NYC had a high of only 16 degrees the 850's were -22 to -24 C. The position of the surface high is also very

important for us. We can do better than the 850's imply with a high building down north of the Great Lakes right on top

of us with a NW to N flow right down the Hudson Valley. Other times we have really cold 850's but the high crests to

far SW of us with mostly westerly WNW  winds over the still open Great Lakes.

 

The model forecast position of the high cresting over the SE next week is not what we want to see

in order to get cold air drainage down the Hudson Valley.

 

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

But let's remember we will just be feeling the beginnings of the SSW this weekend and next week. As we establish the full effects, the blocking could very well return and that's when we could see a snowy pattern develop. Unless I'm completely wrong and we get nothing but I'm a lot more hopeful than I was before the big torch this month. At least it will feel like winter for once.

[IsentropicLift]

Model porn on the 06z GFS - MECS potential phases with the PV

 

 

 

 

 

 

[famartin]

The maximum 850 conversion is about 25F.  So it can get into the low 20s with 850s of -18 to -20. 

[famartin]

Idk if this will mean anything but my temp was supposed to reach 40 today and I am stuck at 34

What is your location?

[Allsnow]

the funny thing is that all it would take to have everybody back on board is a moderate event for all locales in the metro area. Then we'll have cold with a snowpack and everyones happy

I'm sure earthlight, Doug, isotherms. And zucker will be here at the end of the week. Prob making us all blush

[Weathergun]

Between Tuesday and Wednesday morning, the 12z GFS daytime high of 18F and overnight low of 4F in NYC. This is with 850mb temps -16C to -20C:

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC.

[bluewave]

Between Tuesday and Wednesday morning, the 12z GFS daytime high of 18F and overnight low of 4F in NYC. This is with 850mb temps -16C to -20C:

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC.

 

The 2m t's on the GFS only get down to around 12. Those meteostar plots are often too cold for some reason.

 

[sn0w]

Sorry if off topic but the non-weather knowledgeable public in combination with the Weather.com hourly forecasts is a huge pet peeve of mine.  My girlfriend won't come over tonight because "it's gonna be bad by 6 pm because at 6pm weather.com shows a wintry mix".

 

On top of this people at work want to leave early because it shows this at 6pm.  

 

UGH. 

[Weathergun]

The 2m t's on the GFS only get down to around 12. Those meteostar plots are often too cold for some reason.

 

gfs_namer_192_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

WU has 2m temps in the single digits down to NYC at 12z Wed:

 

[famartin]

Sorry if off topic but the non-weather knowledgeable public in combination with the Weather.com hourly forecasts is a huge pet peeve of mine.  My girlfriend won't come over tonight because "it's gonna be bad by 6 pm because at 6pm weather.com shows a wintry mix".

 

On top of this people at work want to leave early because it shows this at 6pm.  

 

UGH. 

Send them to weather.gov

[MJO812]

Euro vs GFS

[Allsnow]

HM has a post in the Phl thread about the ku setup on 12z euro

[Snowshack]

The cold and dry conversation from this morning looks a little less relevant 12 hrs later...

[Kaner587]

Lol see how fast the models can and will change