Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[dbc]

I saw that too and laughed. 

 

I am taking bets that the local news stations during the local evening news tonight will actually claim that is what the high temperature was today.

[SnoSki14]

NYC +6 through the 13th.

 

Wow what's the record for a positive departure month or for the month of January?

[famartin]

Wow what's the record for a positive departure month or for the month of January?

 

For January, +10.6 (compared to today's normals) in 1932 (average 43.2)

[SnoSki14]

For January, +10.6 (compared to today's normals) in 1932 (average 43.2)

 

That's crazy warm. How about top 5? 

[famartin]

That's crazy warm. How about top 5? 

 

  1    43.2    1932  2    41.4    1950,  1990  4    40.9    2006  5    40.0    1998

[BxEngine]

  1    43.2    1932
  2    41.4    1950,  1990
  4    40.9    2006
  5    40.0    1998

Thats a huge spread between 1 and 2, wow.

[NEG NAO]

its official this January is warmer so far then last January - and after next monday will have less snow accumulation for the season through January 21st if we don't get a storm which looks like a good bet - really feels 11/12 ish now -and now only 20 degree days colder then last Dec 1st through January 14

 

http://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.cdus41.EWR.KOKX.html

[bluewave]

Thats a huge spread between 1 and 2, wow.

 

That's about as ugly a look to the Pacific with a -PNA and SE Ridge that you are going to see.

 

 

Two years later was the coldest month on record here. The 30's was a crazy decade.

 

[Isotherm]

Well today marks the end of the first half of meteorological winter, and current indications are that we'll be looking at a tale of two winters. The question becomes, when temperatures are totalled up on March 1st, can the Jan 15th-Feb 28th period reach a magnitude of negative departures similar to the magnitude of positives we've seen thus far? Will be interesting to see what happens.

The H5 proggs for the D 5-10 period are similar to the composites for NYC's coldest patterns. Strong PNA ridging w/ a -EPO block, and -AO blocking across the top, both of which are key for cross polar flow. The coldest air since January 2011 is likely to plunge into the Northeast for the Jan 20-30 period, with 850's in the -15c to -20c range.

Additionally, new MJO guidance is more progressive with the wave. Most data takes it through phase 7, some bring it into phase 8 before weakening it. Either way, this will help pump the PNA ridging in the D 5-10 period. Then we'll wait to see if the PNA can hand off to NAO blocking down the road, which is what most guidance seems to suggest -- a gradual reload to the neutral/negative PNA regime, but continued -AO and -EPO.


 

•  

[nzucker]

Wow what's the record for a positive departure month or for the month of January?

 

This month won't be closer to record warmth after the cold second half.

 

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Central Park finishes January 2013 below normal. This probably has a 35-40% chance of happening. 

[Isotherm]

This month won't be closer to record warmth after the cold second half.

 

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Central Park finishes January 2013 below normal. This probably has a 35-40% chance of happening. 

 

 

Agree. My conservative guess right now is 0 to +2 but if the major cold verifies, I can definitely see below normal.

[famartin]

This month won't be closer to record warmth after the cold second half.

 

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Central Park finishes January 2013 below normal. This probably has a 35-40% chance of happening. 

 

Eh...  I can see most of the positive departure going away... but even for the next week or so, its gonna be near to above normal.  The real cold still doesn't arrive til the 20th/21st or so.  It will be hard to completely eat up the entire first 3 weeks of near to above normal temps.

[Isotherm]

Eh...  I can see most of the positive departure going away... but even for the next week or so, its gonna be near to above normal.  The real cold still doesn't arrive til the 20th/21st or so.  It will be hard to completely eat up the entire first 3 weeks of near to above normal temps.

 

 

Yeah it ultimately depends on the magnitude of the cold for the last 10 days. Mediocre cold with highs in the low 30s for several days isn't going to cut. More likely we'll need a stretch of days with 25/15 (or lower) type splits to get the job done, but it is possible in this pattern.

[bluewave]

This month won't be closer to record warmth after the cold second half.

 

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Central Park finishes January 2013 below normal. This probably has a 35-40% chance of happening. 

 

I think that NYC is pretty much guaranteed an above normal temperature finish for January with above normal temps

continuing this week. The only question on the table is the size of the positive departure when the month is finished.

[famartin]

Yeah it ultimately depends on the magnitude of the cold for the last 10 days. Mediocre cold with highs in the low 30s for several days isn't going to cut. More likely we'll need a stretch of days with 25/15 (or lower) type splits to get the job done, but it is possible in this pattern.

 

It would help some if the snow pack to the NW was rebuilt... its pretty lacking now.

[Isotherm]

It would help some if the snow pack to the NW was rebuilt... its pretty lacking now.

 

 

Ouch. I haven't looked at that map in awhile. Current snow cover is pretty abysmal for Jan 14th in the Northeast.

[PB GFI]

Without an active sountern branch , its gona be hard to replenish that country wide to post xmas levels . The Northeast should start to fill in within a week to 10 days .

[nzucker]

I think that NYC is pretty much guaranteed an above normal temperature finish for January with above normal temps

continuing this week. The only question on the table is the size of the positive departure when the month is finished.

 

My forecast from NWS shows fairly normal temperatures, just slightly above the mean, this week:

Tuesday: 40/32

Wednesday: 39/30

Thursday: 43/24

Friday: 35/26

[uofmiami]

It would help some if the snow pack to the NW was rebuilt... its pretty lacking now.

Lake Effect should help fill in some of the gaps once the arctic air comes in.  The rest will have to be built up with clippers in the northern branch.

[rossi]

I heard that the Euro weeklies show a lot of snow opportunites and a big snowstorm next week.

From did you hear that from???

[MJO812]

From did you hear that from???

 

My friend on another forum.

[rcad1]

Looks like cold rain for the city and coast tonight!! Followed by basically cold and dry except for the warm up sat but after that Upton says it looks cold and dry with no precip except maybe flurries mon well n&w!!! Anyone see anything other then cold and dry that is just the worst pattern in my opinion! Wish we could have gotten a couple of inches before entering this poss cold and dry period..

[BxEngine]

So youre saying cold and dry maybe?

[Allsnow]

So youre saying cold and dry maybe?

+2

[CIK62]

NAEFS Precip. probabilities shows just  1 chance in 3 of getting at least 25mm liquid over next 10 days here in NYC.   Storm track runs SW to NE from TN-VA and looks a few hundred miles too south for us.       Coldest temps. are slated for 22-27 period and at least one single digit AM reading seems likely.    Ironically when it warms slightly and briefly to low 40's on Sat.   -30C 850mb area is not that far away in SE Canada.   Only -18C to -22C make it here.

[Allsnow]

34 here. Thunder snow/sleet reported by airport in Dallas this morning

[Snowshack]

http://img803.imageshack.us/img803/3079/cpc4.gif

 

Looks pretty dry coast to coast

[nzucker]

NAEFS Precip. probabilities shows just  1 chance in 3 of getting at least 25mm liquid over next 10 days here in NYC.   Storm track runs SW to NE from TN-VA and looks a few hundred miles too south for us.       Coldest temps. are slated for 22-27 period and at least one single digit AM reading seems likely.    Ironically when it warms slightly and briefly to low 40's on Sat.   -30C 850mb area is not that far away in SE Canada.   Only -18C to -22C make it here.

0z ECM still has an extremely cold period with -18C to -20C 850s early next week and then again Wednesday/Thursday next week. Monday looks like low 20s for highs and Wednesday and Thursday may be upper teens, especially if we have snow cover. 0z ECM rebuilds the PNA ridge at Day 10 with another cold shot moving south from Central Canada. 

[NorEaster27]

NAEFS Precip. probabilities shows just  1 chance in 3 of getting at least 25mm liquid over next 10 days here in NYC.   Storm track runs SW to NE from TN-VA and looks a few hundred miles too south for us.       Coldest temps. are slated for 22-27 period and at least one single digit AM reading seems likely.    Ironically when it warms slightly and briefly to low 40's on Sat.   -30C 850mb area is not that far away in SE Canada.   Only -18C to -22C make it here.

single digit AM temp does not look likely for NYC.

[NorEaster27]

0z ECM still has an extremely cold period with -18C to -20C 850s early next week and then again Wednesday/Thursday next week. Monday looks like low 20s for highs and Wednesday and Thursday may be upper teens, especially if we have snow cover. 0z ECM rebuilds the PNA ridge at Day 10 with another cold shot moving south from Central Canada. 

-18 to -20 850s is not extreme cold, its below normal but not close to extreme.