Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[Snowshack]

From Upton's forecast for tonight for northern suffolk...i dont remember seeing this wording before.  Wouldnt heavy drizzle be AKA rain?

 

Tonight A chance of drizzle, mainly between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers after 3am. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Widespread dense fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 43. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.From Uptons forecast for tonight

[Dsnowx53]

The NAO hard numbers are going to be positive because the negative height anomalies in relation to the PV extend into Greenland and the N Atlantic. But the pattern won't resemble a big +NAO.

This is why you have to be very careful looking at those charts. You have to look at the actual pattern. A huge -NAO is often good for keeping a PV in SE Canada, but considering we already have that...

One thing though is that the stratospheric warming is appearing to displace the strong vortex rather than split it. I'd still prefer a pattern with actual NAO blocking and a split/weaker PV for snow chances rather than a very strong, displaced PV, however. We will of course still have our chances, though.

[TWCCraig]

From Upton's forecast for tonight for northern suffolk...i dont remember seeing this wording before.  Wouldnt heavy drizzle be AKA rain?

 

Tonight A chance of drizzle, mainly between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers after 3am. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Widespread dense fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 43. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.From Uptons forecast for tonight

 

Yeah, I see that in my forecast too. Maybe they mean the fog could be dense at times, IDK, a heavy drizzle?!?!

[Snowshack]

Yeah, I see that in my forecast too. Maybe they mean the fog could be dense at times, IDK, a heavy drizzle?!?!

 

Hopefully soon we're talking about heavy flurries

[famartin]

From Upton's forecast for tonight for northern suffolk...i dont remember seeing this wording before.  Wouldnt heavy drizzle be AKA rain?

 

Tonight A chance of drizzle, mainly between 2am and 3am, then a chance of showers after 3am. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Widespread dense fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 43. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.From Uptons forecast for tonight

 

Drizzle is defined by drop size.

[bluewave]

The Euro ens are not all that bullish on the cold coming in in around 10 days or so. It looks

like we could see a day or two with -10 or greater daily temperature departures before the

temperatures moderate later in the month. NYC would see a low in the teens and a high

in the 20's which isn't that cold by any historical standards.

 

[kevbo81]

The Euro ens are not all that bullish on the cold coming in in around 10 days or so. It looks

like we could see a day or two with -10 or greater daily temperature departures before the

temperatures moderate later in the month. NYC would see a low in the teens and a high

in the 20's which isn't that cold by any historical standards.

 

12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS240.gif

 

 

 

this is what i was worried about, given the propensity for the models to overdo these fleeting shots of cold all year long. 

[bluewave]

this is what i was worried about, given the propensity for the models to overdo these fleeting shots of cold all year long. 

 

The OP GFS is the worst offender, though even the OP Euro has been too cold at times beyond day 7. But the

Euro ensemble mean has proven to be a good 6-10 day forecast.

 

Check out how bad the OP fantasy range GFS range was with the 1-17-13 -40 departure call for Peoria.

They really need to fix that OP GFS cold bias or stop running it at those ranges.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/stuostro/comment.html?entrynum=20

 

Actual January 17th:

 

[FPizz]

Havent they also been too warm with the warm ups?

[Weathergun]

We seeing mostly the +PNA/-EPO/-AO sustain a cold pattern over the Eastern US, next week:

 

[PB GFI]

I for one am not rooting on any kind of historical cold. If u drop that vortex in full bore u will more than likely be dry. I hav no problem with it sitting on the border and being just close enough if something happens to appear on the southern jet so we can tap into it. If it does drop one would hope when it pulls out it does so with a system on its heels. But it looks like for at least a few weeks real winter has a potential to materialize

[bluewave]

I for one am not rooting on any kind of historical cold. If u drop that vortex in full bore u will more than likely be dry. I hav no problem with it sitting on the border and being just close enough if something happens to appear on the southern jet so we can tap into it. If it does drop one would hope when it pulls out it does so with a system on its heels. But it looks like for at least a few weeks real winter has a potential to materialize

 

The other problem would be if the PV doesn't drop far enough and the Pacific Jet warms the pattern too soon after

for any significant winter storm threats.

[PB GFI]

The other problem would be if the PV doesn't drop far enough and the Pacific Jet warms the pattern too soon after

for any significant winter storm threats.

The euro still supports a neg EPO. But sure There's always a risk the PAC can overwhelm the pattern , it's that strong. The one thing I would like too see is how the MJO which was orig forecasted to die in 6 then forecasted to die in 7 looks to wana loop in 7 so my opinion has been that it will some how get modeled into 8 over the next week .

I'm always more worried about the MJO EPO PNA because my bias is the pacific is a little more of a weather maker or breaker for us

[kevbo81]

The OP GFS is the worst offender, though even the OP Euro has been too cold at times beyond day 7. But the

Euro ensemble mean has proven to be a good 6-10 day forecast.

 

Check out how bad the OP fantasy range GFS range was with the 1-17-13 -40 departure call for Peoria.

They really need to fix that OP GFS cold bias or stop running it at those ranges.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/stuostro/comment.html?entrynum=20

 

Actual January 17th:

 

D4.gif

 

it's getting to be a joke at this point...

[Snowshack]

Interesting--thanks. Always learning on here

 

Drizzle is defined by drop size.

[CooL]

Nothing im looking at supports a southeast ridge returning anytime soon. All of the teloconnections are pointing towards a long period of average-below average temps for the northeast. 

[bluewave]

The euro still supports a neg EPO. But sure There's always a risk the PAC can overwhelm the pattern , it's that strong. The one thing I would like too see is how the MJO which was orig forecasted to die in 6 then forecasted to die in 7 looks to wana loop in 7 so my opinion has been that it will some how get modeled into 8 over the next week .

I'm always more worried about the MJO EPO PNA because my bias is the pacific is a little more of a weather maker or breaker for us

 

Yeah, the key is getting a good MJO forecast further out into time which is tricky. The Euro was never really

bullish on this getting beyond 7 within its forecast range. 

[SnoSki14]

Nothing im looking at supports a southeast ridge returning anytime soon. All of the teloconnections are pointing towards a long period of average-below average temps for the northeast. 

 

We look to be sort of straddling the line of the arctic air, which may not be a bad thing in terms of getting snowstorms but it's a bit worrisome as well if SE ridging develops or the PV is further north. 

[WEATHER53]

it's getting to be a joke at this point...

Past a joke but were are not supposed to address such defects. We are to instead embrace "winter's over....awful...depressing" as our mode of discussing winter forecasts and outcomes.

[rgwp96]

through today +7.6 in the temp department. December was +4.9, just awful

[bluewave]

NYC +6 through the 13th.

[Momza]

NYC +6 through the 13th.

Extreme weather continues........

[tim]

Extreme weather continues........

...its 59 freakin' degrees here in eastport..

to quote seinfeld...I'M FREAKING OUT..i hope

this ends soon.

[JonClaw]

I just realized it's in the upper 50s IMBY right now, 58.1

 

Wow.

[Cfa]

I really wish the sun was out. It's so nice right now, almost 60.

[pazzo83]

NWS has a 6hr max of 72F for the park.  Gonna guess that's not correct...

 

[Allsnow]

NWS has a 6hr max of 72F for the park. Gonna guess that's not correct...

cpk_130114_obs.JPG

That's 64 is incorrect also. Bluewave had a post on it

[MJO812]

Euro is really nice for next week

[supermeh]

Euro is absolutely frigid with tons of storm chances coming up. Hello winter.

[Wannabehippie]

NWS has a 6hr max of 72F for the park.  Gonna guess that's not correct...

 

cpk_130114_obs.JPG

I saw that too and laughed.