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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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CooL

CooL

Posted
Posted

The pattern will be really suppressed with the PV dropping south of James Bay, but we'll look for some

opportunities when the pattern starts to recover closer to normal near the end of the month.

 

Yeah and plus the lower resolution has trouble picking up a vort or something like that sometimes so you never know..There could be a threat are two mixed in there. If the modeled PNA is right i find it hard to believe we won't have atleast a minor event perhaps moderate. 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Upton's afternoon forcast now has western long island's temps above normal thru next Saturday there not way above normal but still in the low 40's.. Looks to me like neg nao is right on with what he was saying last night and I also agree that I would rather have normal temps with the chance of snow storms then be 20 degrees below normal but bone dty that's just a waste of cod air in my opinion..

 

Right, the cold isn't modeled to arrive until after the 20th which is outside their forecast range. It will be a gradual step down

process later in the week from the early temps near 60 on Monday.

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CooL

CooL

Posted
Posted

Upton's afternoon forcast now has western long island's temps above normal thru next Saturday there not way above normal but still in the low 40's.. Looks to me like neg nao is right on with what he was saying last night and I also agree that I would rather have normal temps with the chance of snow storms then be 20 degrees below normal but bone dty that's just a waste of cod air in my opinion..

 

You're not just gonna start getting major storms with marginal cold. You need to lay the foundation.

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Snowlover76

Snowlover76

Posted
Posted

Upton's afternoon forcast now has western long island's temps above normal thru next Saturday there not way above normal but still in the low 40's.. Looks to me like neg nao is right on with what he was saying last night and I also agree that I would rather have normal temps with the chance of snow storms then be 20 degrees below normal but bone dty that's just a waste of cod air in my opinion..

 

doublefacepalm.jpg

 

Right, the cold isn't modeled to arrive until after the 20th which is outside their forecast range. It will be a gradual step down

process later in the week from the early temps near 60 on Monday.

 

 

THIS

 

You're not just gonna start getting major storms with marginal cold. You need to lay the foundation.

 

You think he will understand that?

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Yeah and plus the lower resolution has trouble picking up a vort or something like that sometimes so you never know..There could be a threat are two mixed in there. If the modeled PNA is right i find it hard to believe we won't have atleast a minor event perhaps moderate. 

 

Yeah, it seems tough to get something more significant until we get past the peak of the cold and the PV starts lifting out.

But hopefully we can put some snowfall points on the board later on this month. 

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Yeah, it seems tough to get something more significant until we get past the peak of the cold and the PV starts lifting out.

But hopefully we can put some snowfall points on the board later on this month.

With lobes of vorticity rotating around the cold PV there's always a chance for a clipper with high ratios given the cold air. I also disagree with Anthony about the lack of blocking: a negative EPO ridge extending into northern Alaska is a form of high-latitude blocking and usually gives NYC it's coldest temps...

I also think very late January and early February will offer the chance for a KU storm as the PV lifts out but the -AO block continues. This is the most exciting pattern since Jan 2011

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

When you have the coldest air in the world  on your side of the pole ,and you mix in a favorable pacific , neg EPO and a POS PNA ,

Its only matter of time before the Atlantic side responds with the NOA going and probably staying  NEG . 

You step this whole pattern lower  say in  3- 5 day clips at a time  as weak pieces of energy  rotate thru , eventually you will get the Polar Vortex to come south full bore . When you do that you sometimes  shunt storms off to your south  so dont root that on just yet .

You  would want enough cold air to filter in  have wave lenghts shorten just as a strong high builds in get some resistance from the south east ridge which is repsonding to a pos PNA and you will  turn storms northeast   and you snow .

When the PV finally pivots in you will know , but you also mayb dry , you typically get your biggest snow storms as they lift out .

You mayb looking a pretty good  2 -3 weeks process that starts a little below and graduates to a full blown outbreak and hopefully when it breaks it does so with a bang.

Look at the teleconnections , look at the Ensembles and look at the weeklies . when was the last time you had so much ammo .

( MJO ) may be only fly in the ointment right now ....

Now if it doesnt work out , then we have bad luck , but if i were a betting man and  I am , buy nat gas , because we r gona use it .

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rcad1

rcad1

Posted
Posted

Don't know about you guys but I would take slightly below normal temps with the chance of snow over record breaking cold and dry weather any day!! ~that's just a waste of cold air in my opinion. I know some people are going to say you have to lay the foundation but I dont agree with that cause we'll be frigid say for two Weeks and when temps finally start to moderate to normal we'll get a storm witch is fine cause atleast it's a storm but I would rather get the storm before the frigid air or during it so the smow would last for a while!!!!

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted

With the polar vortex coming south, any storm that tries to come up will most likely get squashed. Clippers will dominant in this pattern .

 

Not entirely. Last night's 00Z ECM and yesterday's 12Z GFS proved that a Snowstorm is still possible with the PV driving southward. It just depends where the PV is going to drop that determines where the Gulf Low will end up.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

You get two storm tracks proceeding a deep PV dropping down into SE Canada.

Track 1 is west or near us as a clipper or strong Arctic wave like 1-17-94. Track 2

is suppressed to our SE like Christmas 1989. Once the PV lifts out we have a

chance at a more significant snow, but it depends on what the pattern looks

like at that point.

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

You get two storm tracks proceeding a deep PV dropping down into SE Canada.

Track 1 is west or near us as a clipper or strong Arctic wave like 1-17-94. Track 2

is suppressed to our SE like Christmas 1989. Once the PV lifts out we have a

chance at a more significant snow, but it depends on what the pattern looks

like at that point.

Overall we want a weaker PV or it to split over SE Canada, to get anything major. I would be satisfied though with just a clipper.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

If this year turns out like 1984-85 we will see a very cold arctic outbreak...Frequent snows for about three weeks...

January-February 1985...

Jan. 1-2.......57 and 58 degrees for highs...

Jan. 5.........2" of snow...

Jan. 9.........16 degrees...coldest so far

Jan. 16........13 degrees...coldest so far

Jan. 18........4.1" of snow...

Jan. 19-20...1.1" of snow...

Jan. 21........-2 minimum...9 maximum...

Jan. 31........0.8" snow to rain...

Feb. 2..........4.3" of snow with some rain...

Feb. 5-6.......5.7" of snow...

Feb. 8..........14 degrees...

all up hill after that...75 degrees later in the month...

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

IMBY

 

dec 2011 + jan 2012 + feb 2012 + march 2012 + dec 2012 + half of jan 2013 total snowfall: 6.1"

 

oct 2011 + nov 2012 total snowfall 10.5"

 

 

oofah

we are in a crazy period...When we look back years from now(I hope I'm alive) it will be more amazing...I was to young to remember the early 1950's but 1952 and 1953 had early snowfalls and bad winters...I always wondered how that could happen...If it happened before it will happen again...Just a matter of how long...

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

PNA continues to be negative 

post-342-0-73764600-1358098524_thumb.png

 

Now guidance is suggesting that the NAO is going positive..

 

12 Z GFS

post-342-0-89921800-1358098606_thumb.gif

 

00z ECM ensembles

post-342-0-53461200-1358098625_thumb.gif

 

We need the PNA to go positive in tandem with the NAO negative in order for the east to see any sustained colder weather. It is not good enough for the "models" to show it happening ..it needs to happen ..if not the coldest air will be centered into the central , mid west and west with a - PNA

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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted

IMBY

 

dec 2011 + jan 2012 + feb 2012 + march 2012 + dec 2012 + half of jan 2013 total snowfall: 6.1"

 

oct 2011 + nov 2012 total snowfall 10.5"

 

 

oofah

Looking at it that way really magnifies the train wreck we been in :lol:

 

my numbers are similar 13" for last one and a half years of winter and 10.8" for the last two falls

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