Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

stalled front leads to light snow on the northern fridge for a good bit, still south of us, but as a shortwave breaks off the vortex over hudson bay it lags behind and misses with the phase. something to watch for sure. though a lack of a 50/50 would be troublesome if the shortwaves were to phase.

[MJO812]

GFS is trying for the 2nd wave.

[SnowGoose69]

The 06Z DGEX and 12Z GFS actually are in agreement

[nzucker]

Does anyone think forecast high temperatures in the mid 50s are going to bust today? I'm stuck in the mid 40s with overcast skies and it's in the upper 30s just to the north of me..I'm supposed to hit 54F today.

[Isotherm]

Well the EPO is now in the tank, and latest MJO proggs, while putting on the brakes in phase 7, do attempt to keep the wave moving eastward. Good news is we've seen data trend more bullish w/ the MJO amplitude over the past few days. The last 15 days of January should be cold to much colder than normal.

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[Snow_Miser]

The 12z GFS looks pretty nice. Cold with storm chances. Brings a storm event on the 21st-22nd which the ECM also had on the 20th.

[NEG NAO]

this is the setup you want if you want snow here - the core of the arctic air further west over minnesota and not crashing into the great lakes

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12252.gif

[MJO812]

^^

Agree

[Guest Pamela]

this is the setup you want if you want snow here - the core of the arctic air further west over minnesota and not crashing into the great lakes

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12252.gif

<Would make a sarcastic comment about the odds of the weather looking like that in 10.5 days...but it probably went through most readers minds already anyway>

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

this is the setup you want if you want snow here - the core of the arctic air further west over minnesota and not crashing into the great lakes

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12252.gif

 

This is why I think this will be the most likely out come. The teleconnections have at least a moderate agreement for some sort of coastal storm between the 20th-25th. Sounds familiar?

 

 

Now the CFS and ECMWF OP are in agreement for a Nor'easter Conducive Pattern between January 20th-25th.

 

 

The previous ECMWF run is signaling a Phase 7 MJO, like the CFS at January 20th. When was the last time you seen an agree between the CFS and the ECMWF OP? Never.

 

From here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38622-cfs-backs-off-cold-here/

[MJO812]

Dint want arctic air if we can't get snow out of the pattern. GFS is still pretty cold.

[NEG NAO]

this run of the 12Z actually makes sense after the storm on the 23rd - that is all snow - the core of the arctic air moves this way with below 0 temps .............the initial cold air is below normal by a few degrees but the storm going by is what helps sweep the coldest air in from the northwest - and you know what ? we are way overdue for below zero and single digits around here and that is the only type of extreme weather that we haven't experienced in the last few years

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

[dbc]

Does anyone think forecast high temperatures in the mid 50s are going to bust today? I'm stuck in the mid 40s with overcast skies and it's in the upper 30s just to the north of me..I'm supposed to hit 54F today.

I do and if the extent of this so called "torch" is two days of low 50's, I must say that is very unimpressive and it makes people who are whining about this warm-up look ridiculous. This is not a torch, it wouldn't even be considered a thaw in the coldest of winters lol.

[Kaner587]

I do and if the extent of this so called "torch" is two days of low 50's, I must say that is very unimpressive and it makes people who are whining about this warm-up look ridiculous. This is not a torch, it wouldn't even be considered a thaw in the coldest of winters lol.

lol currently 46 with NE winds at KNYC. Knew this would happen. I hate warm weather in the winter so I welcome it. Lets see if tomorrow makes a run at 60...I doubt it.

[ag3]

lol currently 46 with NE winds at KNYC. Knew this would happen. I hate warm weather in the winter so I welcome it. Lets see if tomorrow makes a run at 60...I doubt it.

Euro has always had it 45-50 for today and tomorrow and always had Monday the day the city approaches 60.

Not sure why mets use any other guidance.

[Weathergun]

The 12z Euro delays the warmth to Sunday night and Monday.  It has 60s over parts NYC Metro and LI, just after fropa on Monday:

 

[ag3]

The 12z Euro delays the warmth to Sunday night and Monday. It has 60s over parts NYC Metro and LI, just after fropa on Monday:

It's always had Monday as the warm day and approaching 60s.

[bkviking]

Yeah, nice if forecast pans out bc right now in Port Jefferson it is absolute misery, with light drizzle and mid-40s temps. The curse of Long Island and rest if New England.

[Edge Weather]

lol currently 46 with NE winds at KNYC. Knew this would happen. I hate warm weather in the winter so I welcome it. Lets see if tomorrow makes a run at 60...I doubt it.

temps will rise 10 degrees really fast if this fog ever burns off.

[Weathergun]

It's always had Monday as the warm day and approaching 60s.

On WU, all week, the warmth, seemed to be waffling back and forth between Sunday and Monday.

[ag3]

On WU, all week, the warmth, seemed to be waffling back and forth between Sunday and Monday.

Soundings always had Monday as the warmest day. And this weekend in the upper 40s to low 50s.

[nzucker]

My temperature is actually dropping...I'm at 44.5/45 with northeast winds after a high of 45.7F. No way we'll make 50F today. I think the warmest day will be Monday as winds shift from E/NE to west and torch us before the front comes through. It could be a brief torch with highs around 40F on Tuesday. The problem is more the overnight lows being mild than very warm daytime highs, which aren't going to verify.

temps will rise 10 degrees really fast if this fog ever burns off.

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro actually has the same idea now as the 12Z GFS - the intial push of arctic air moves north through eastern canada mid/late next week then the second major push of the core of the arctic air comes in slightly east of the GFS western great lakes at day 10

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

[nzucker]

12Z Euro actually has the same idea now as the 12Z GFS - the intial push of arctic air moves north through eastern canada mid/late next week then the second major push of the core of the arctic air comes in slightly east of the GFS western great lakes at day 10

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

 

We get much colder at Day 5-6 on the 12z ECM though than the 12z GFS....850s here are around -17C which is approaching an arctic outbreak, and that's before the actual arctic outbreak it shows. Dangerous cold being modeled right now for the next 2 weeks. 

[MJO812]

No blocking on the euro. Cold air on the run is because of the strong + pna.

[TWCCraig]

Soundings always had Monday as the warmest day. And this weekend in the upper 40s to low 50s.

 

I can see that happening. After the fropa and before the bulk of colder air behind it gets here, I think most locations hit 60+ on Monday. That's what usually happens in these types of set ups. A few foggy damp days, then if the timing it right on the front, we'll see our warmest temps after the fropa.

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS is different then the 12Z the second cold shot around the 23rd does not drop into Minnesots but is about 400 - 500 miles northeast of there and then slowly sinks to just north of the great lakes sending minus 18 -minus 21 850's in here - this is all pure speculation right now because the models will keep waffling to where exactly the PV sets up which efects any storms trying to make it here from the south and west...........

[MJO812]

18z is really cold

[CooL]

Epic GFS run despite lack of precip. Tons of blocking, tons of cold, and nice ridge out west

[bluewave]

Epic GFS run despite lack of precip. Tons of blocking, tons of cold, and nice ridge out west

 

The pattern will be really suppressed with the PV dropping south of James Bay, but we'll look for some

opportunities when the pattern starts to recover closer to normal near the end of the month.