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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
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Im sad because of the inconsistency from run to run. So its impossible to sound credible when im watching solutions disolve in less than 24 hrs We cant get the trof axis to the east coast and the models cant handle the strength of the block. Theres nothin from this model showin a coastal tomrrw. So try sounding smart whn every operational looks different

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

You just need the models to figure out the strength and positon of that block , if its modeled right , than this should belly under and redevelop along the coast as it comes on the heels of a cold air mass . As it is , its a blocky pattern day 7 on , ULL in the middle of the country under blocks yield great results for New England , lets see if it get the low level cold air this far south .

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jasonli18t

jasonli18t

Posted
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he already backed off in his 2nd reply saying it was a once in a 100 year storm rather than maintaining he never said it would go OTS. The only thing I can think of is that he derives some sort of sexual pleasure from a combination of being stubborn, wrong, and upsetting other posters.

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Porsche

Porsche

Posted
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2 good-looking Euro ensemble runs in the row. Not too shabby. Colder and farther south than the Op at 216 with better confluence over southern Canada and New England. Definitely a CAD signal as well. 240 looks quite nice.

12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS240.gif

Thought you guys might want to see this, but appears there is a lack of a 50/50

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
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Thought you guys might want to see this, but appears there is a lack of a 50/50

Thats a snow changing to mix and or rain along the coast low is too close to the coast BUT it means nothing yet since its 10 days out .................

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snywx

snywx

Posted
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It's really sad how anybod that posts that they dont see a huge pattern change happening gets ripped apart.. Hey maybe there wrong but guess what they just might be Wright I realize you don't want them to be Wright and either do I.. I would love the pattern to change to a cold and snowy one but unfortunately it doesn't look like that is going to happen sure some models show a change but it's omly for a couple of days and always ten days away!!!!!!!! Maybe we should look back to last years post and we would see that the same things were being said and look how that turned out not saying it's going too happen again but there is that chance so maybe we shouldn't rip everyone apart who doesn't agree with what we think!!!!!

How old are you? :facepalm:

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

It's really sad how anybod that posts that they dont see a huge pattern change happening gets ripped apart.. Hey maybe there wrong but guess what they just might be Wright I realize you don't want them to be Wright and either do I.. I would love the pattern to change to a cold and snowy one but unfortunately it doesn't look like that is going to happen sure some models show a change but it's omly for a couple of days and always ten days away!!!!!!!! Maybe we should look back to last years post and we would see that the same things were being said and look how that turned out not saying it's going too happen again but there is that chance so maybe we shouldn't rip everyone apart who doesn't agree with what we think!!!!!

:axe:

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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It's really sad how anybod that posts that they dont see a huge pattern change happening gets ripped apart.. Hey maybe there wrong but guess what they just might be Wright I realize you don't want them to be Wright and either do I.. I would love the pattern to change to a cold and snowy one but unfortunately it doesn't look like that is going to happen sure some models show a change but it's omly for a couple of days and always ten days away!!!!!!!! Maybe we should look back to last years post and we would see that the same things were being said and look how that turned out not saying it's going too happen again but there is that chance so maybe we shouldn't rip everyone apart who doesn't agree with what we think!!!!!

When you learn how to spell, come back and join us.

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

Posted
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The ECMWF is not at all progressive. Look at how amplified that ridge is at hour 240.

12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

look at the heights over AK, a few runs ago they showed strong ridging. That cutoff would only give the area a rain storm, I see the high hights to the north, that blocking is not doing anything for us wtih the lower hights over AK, the cold air source is cut off and its the same pattern we are currently in. This is the worst EURO run in a few days for the area.

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Snowshack

Snowshack

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Snow88 I really hope not but I don't see anything that shows this pattern changing for more then a couple of days!!! Im praying dt and others are correct but even dt said he was going against what one of the models we're showing I think it was the euro and it showed a Nice storm for the midwest around Christmas but still the same **** here and he said he thinks it's wrong so im still holding out some hope but after last year and then this month might be one of the warmest ever.. I don't have much hope but that's good cause ill be pleasantly surprised if im wrong witch is fine by me..

I dont think theres any question the pattern is changing right now and that the new pattern will last more than a couple of days. IMO the question remains will we get persistent cold with storms passing to our south or will it be cold and dry interrupted by storms passing to our west...

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