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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

Why are people still looking for the next ice age?

 

Euro and GFS continue to like the period around the 22nd with the huge PNA spike

I am looking for consistency and pretty much both the GFS and the ECM have warmed up in the 6-10 day range....

 

Not looking for the next Ice age but looking for that extreme cold that was advertised and we now seem to be getting pushed back once again....

 

I see the PNA going positive on the ECM that is one plus but we trade out with the NAO also going positive too...

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CooL

CooL

Posted
Posted

I am looking for consistency and pretty much both the GFS and the ECM have warmed up in the 6-10 day range....

 

Not looking for the next Ice age but looking for that extreme cold that was advertised and we now seem to be getting pushed back once again....

 

I see the PNA going positive on the ECM that is one plus but we trade out with the NAO also going positive too...

No way were the models going to keep that record cold. But its still cold atleast. The NAO is beautiful at the end with a nice storm threat. The NAO graphs that the weenies look at will probably show a positive surge at the end but that's because it already did the dirty work.

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

No way were the models going to keep that record cold. But its still cold atleast. The NAO is beautiful at the end with a nice storm threat. The NAO graphs that the weenies look at will probably show a positive surge at the end but that's because it already did the dirty work.

Yes but outside of Northern New England and then the Great Lakes we are only talking about seasonal cold...That has not been what has been being discussed nor advertised here nor in other forums nor on other sites but rather the potential for extreme cold...cold that would erase away the departures that are positive...that is not looking as likely now OUTSIDE the areas mentioned and I will not even begin to talk about storm threats at 10 days out..

 

I am more concerned about the medium range which has gotten warmer ...and to me , at least, that has to be a concern because its shown on both main pieces of guidance tonight...

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CooL

CooL

Posted
Posted

Yes but outside of Northern New England and then the Great Lakes we are only talking about seasonal cold...That has not been what has been being discussed nor advertised here nor in other forums nor on other sites but rather the potential for extreme cold...cold that would erase away the departures that are positive...that is not looking as likely now OUTSIDE the areas mentioned and I will not even begin to talk about storm threats at 10 days out..

 

I am more concerned about the medium range which has gotten warmer ...and to me , at least, that has to be a concern because its shown on both main pieces of guidance tonight...

Yeah. You never know. But the pattern is going to favor average to below average temps for us in the 2nd half of january IMO

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

This has been thought of as a step down process. The call is that its not one and done. Its hard to go from 15 days of plus 6 right into the ice box. The argument has beem u lock off a period of three weeks that avg below normal. Its never been about one trough that gona sit and deliver minus 20 air for 3 weeks. Patterns evolve.  I thnk ths is the first shot over a 3 week period that should avg below. There`s some good long term guidance that points to ths. I like th  the idea of a better pattern on its way its just a matter of for how long .

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tim

tim

Posted
Posted

By the way, Denver is eleven below zero now, much colder than any guidance had, also a drop of six degrees in the last half hour.

...we don't have winter out our window..at least we can watch winter on 

tv as peyton leads his broncos this afternoon in denver..

as for our area..nws 'forecast discussion long range' shows no 

cold air..just normal temps..i'm sick of being patient..i'm sick of the upper

mid west getting hammered..when is it our turn?..not this upcoming week..and

i'm sure it will be delayed even more!!

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

...we don't have winter out our window..at least we can watch winter on 

tv as peyton leads his broncos this afternoon in denver..

as for our area..nws 'forecast discussion long range' shows no 

cold air..just normal temps..i'm sick of being patient..i'm sick of the upper

mid west getting hammered..when is it our turn?..not this upcoming week..and

i'm sure it will be delayed even more!!

Upton seldom comments on significant changes until they are on the doorstep and will even then tend to downplay them...sort of like an airline pilot yawning while telling the passengers one of the engines just fell off. 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Upton seldom comments on significant changes until they are on the doorstep and will even then tend to downplay them...sort of like an airline pilot yawning while telling the passengers one of the engines just fell off. 

I think they are handling this the right way - not warning folks this far out about any arctic outbreak - there has been mass confusion on the models the last few days - just look at yesterdays GFS which was showing 0 degree temps in NYC 9 or 10 days out and todays 6Z is 15 to 20 degrees warmer in the same time frame - and the coldest core of the outbreak keeps geting pushed back - but of course select individuals here bought right into the arctic air dumping into the east later next week and weekend - well I didn't believe it .............

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Good things come to those who wait.    A future headline:

 

NYC Easter Sunday Activities Plowed Under by 18"  Spring Blizzard!!

 

But alas, such a headline would have to appear on April Fool's Day.    lol

the way things have been going would not surprise anyone - would not surprise me if this "arctic outbreak" advertised ends up being a couple of degrees of below normal temps for a few days...............in fact anyone who is routing for the arctic air to come this far south is also going to be moaning and groaning because it will be a dry pattern except for a few snow showers or snow squalls when it is 10 degrees out - only hope would be for a clipper to take the southern route  and tap into the atlantic - what we should be hoping for is the arctic high to be centered further north and the southern jet to interact with it........ 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

So you think the arctic air that is modeled is bull****?

no - some location(s) are going to see arctic air - BUT its still very questionable how much of an impact it will have in NYC metro and exactlly when.............and for how long - and the wildcard is exactly how much southern jet activity is allowed to get this far north........

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

Does anyone know what the 'highest low temp.' for Jan. in CPK is.     I believe we set new record of 28 deg. versus 26 deg. in Dec.      Probably 19 deg. sounds reasonable from 2002.   

I think new higher low temps are more telling than new highest temps for global warming.

You know some places have never been below 0 deg. ever  and NYC is in record territory now at 19 years ie.    1943,   -8 deg.   to   -2 deg. in 1961. Just -2 since 1994.   Have we entered the 'No Zero Zone'?

Also it has been found you must go farther north to find a given 500mb geopotential height each decade.  I forgot how many miles north this is, but obviously it would put borderline zero potential locations out of reach eventually.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

We are goin into a colder pattern. Once past tuesday. We dont hav to get to zero to b defined as colder. But when we total up the three week period starting tues we will end up below normal. U hav to remember unless pp are shoveling a ft of snow they will never b happy. Ths is a step dowm process. I will take the euro weeklies. They worked for me on dec 3rd and back on jan 1. So im gona buy em today

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

We are goin into a colder pattern. Once past tuesday. We dont hav to get to zero to b defined as colder. But when we total up the three week period starting tues we will end up below normal. U hav to remember unless pp are shoveling a ft of snow they will never b happy. Ths is a step dowm process. I will take the euro weeklies. They worked for me on dec 3rd and back on jan 1. So im gona buy em today

This.  Some posts on this board have been ridiculous, somebody needs to take control.  its pretty much one poster talking out of his ass with nobody setting him streaight.

 

What the hell happened to this board.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

This. Some posts on this board have been ridiculous, somebody needs to take control. its pretty much one poster talking out of his ass with nobody setting him streaight.

What the hell happened to this board.

Dude. U must hav me confused w someone else.
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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

This.  Some posts on this board have been ridiculous, somebody needs to take control.  its pretty much one poster talking out of his ass with nobody setting him streaight.

 

What the hell happened to this board.

this is the banter thread - anything goes here BUT personal attacks - you should post in the thread where banter is not allowed

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

Dude. U must hav me confused w someone else.

i wasnt referring to you.

 

And while this is titled banter, it is the only active thread in this sub forum right now discussing the pattern, so i dont view it as banter...since there is no none banter thread.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

i wasnt referring to you.

 

And while this is titled banter, it is the only active thread in this sub forum right now discussing the pattern, so i dont view it as banter...since there is no none banter thread.

We just debating  the weather bro  . I thnk this is 3 week of colder , and if it doest snow people arent gona b happy ( prob me included ) . but ok heres banter , its 45 and drizzzling out .

Was hopin for 55 and sunny

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

12Z NAM more like the GFS now with the wave through 84 hrs...it does still show the secondary one waiting beyond that, I think though if we're gonna get anything its gotta be before 90-96 hours, after that the vort in Canada north of the GRT LAKES starts kicking east and would boot the system.  We could see a painfully close miss here coming up at Days 3-4.

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