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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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Neblizzard

Neblizzard

Posted
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The persistence of the -EPO ridge is key in keeping the reload process going. The -NAO coupled with the -EPO will continue renewing troughs into the Lakes/Northeast.

With the PV trapped in southern Canada, this cold pattern will be anything but transient lol .

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Weathergun

Weathergun

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Posted

by hr 222 there is a massive west coast ridge and the PV blocked in canada just rotating around and around. Also it looks like a lobe of the PV breaks off around 210-216

 

That second lobe of the PV is what the 12z GFS brings down to gives the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic below 0 temps at 288hr:

 

346n9ev.jpg

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jm1220

jm1220

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Definitely a cold pattern, but snow chances will be quite limited outside of a lucky clipper with the east based NAO and suppressing pattern. Not many chances to phase and create real storm threats unless we can generate some kind of a block and/or PV split. The cold will definitely remind people what month it is.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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Ill take my chances with a nearby PV and cold air rather than what we're seeing now with regards to snow. Snow opportunities may pop up out of nowhere instead of at Day 8-10 which the weenies are usually obsessed with. 

 

This pattern change does look legit for once and not transient, the SSW and the PV on our side is a major change from say December, Eurasia did get very cold when they saw something similar last winter so there's a good chance we might actually experience true arctic air instead of just seasonal temps and snow will come eventually if that's the case.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
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Lol  dec 20 i said we were goin into 3 weeks of great  winter weather , you had 1 snowstorm go to your west - and one to your east , you were so clueless , you couldnt understand that we missed a great 3 weeks by 100 miles .Sometimes you get the pattern , but since it only snowed in the lower hudson valley,  CT 3 times and New England  but missed your shanty it was a bust .

 On jan 2 - i said write jan off til jan 20 - how did that work out ?

You dont hav the capacity to make a forecast because you havent a clue what to look for

Euro weeklies , Euro Ensembles , Korean , Japanese monthly neg epo - neg ao - neg nao all progged

all vs ur 12z gfs lol which changes as much as your forecasts do .

I am hiring a step stool for my trading desk , send me your resume , i think you fit the criteria

 

Who was the one who said the first 10 days of January would be cold?  Weren't you one of them?

 

Average in Central Park for the first 10 days of January:  +4.1

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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Sounds like you're thinking of Feb 2-3 that year.

Yeah, just looked it up...not too similar, the pattern was more into the colder period by the time it occurred...there was interestingly enough a suppressed wave a few days prior then the PV reoriented allowing the 2/2-2/3 event to come up the coast.

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CooL

CooL

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Encouraging runs today yet again. All of the teloconnections are lining up to produce an arctic blast into our area. After the initial blast i think storms will start popping up as long as the pacific holds and the PV splits. The cold looks here to stay

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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Big and interesting things on this afternoon's Euro control run that just came out. Keep in mind, this model typically looks very similar to the operational run. I only look at this run because it sometimes looks quite different, and when it does, it sometimes means that it is on to something that the operational run is messing up. Very interesting things on this run. One is that it brings about 2 inches of snow to our area early on Tuesday morning as it rides a wave up along that front and throws some precip back into the cold air. Two is that it has another storm develop in the Gulf and come north, somewhat phasing with a storm dropping down through the Great Lakes, bringing significant snow as far north as from about Trenton to Sandy Hook and and for all of Long Island, just east of NYC on Thursday, and a couple of inches of snow north of that for the rest of us as well. This is very similar to what the Canadian model showed, but it does not completely phase it. It also shows the threat for the following Tuesday, with a big hit for New England, and a couple of inches for the rest of us as well. It continues to show further threats throughout the run to 360 hrs.

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