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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

A breakdown of the 12Z GFS for the Metro - the cold front comes through next Tuesday 1 /15 with some rain preceding it - then things clear out and the initial shot of colder air till friday 1/18 maxes out the 850's at minus 9 then the second shot of cold air comes through early friday and after that the core of the coldest air is moving into southeast canada and we get 850's down to around minus 12 - then the core of the arctic air starts moving northeast and things warm up over the weekend - a storm develops in the southeast saturday and moves just offshore missing us late saturday 1/19 night

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12_county204.gif

 

Lol , Dude you are the funniest guy I have ever read here  . Last nite you were crying that the MJO  was dying in phase 6 , now today you can see its likely  gona roll into thru phase 7 . and in 3 days from now the 7 day MJO  prog will likely show it rolling  through phase 8 .

but then you will ignore that signal too when that happens .

Get off the warm card bro , your reaching for every model anomaly that rushes the trough out  you can find .

The cold is coming , I dont know why you cant look at the macro view of where this pattern is going .

Most of the dynamics are in front of you .

You play the same song after every run .

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Lol , Dude you are the funniest guy I have ever read here  . Last nite you were crying that the MJO  was dying in phase 6 , now today you can see its likely  gona roll into thru phase 7 . and in 3 days from now the 7 day MJO  prog will likely show it rolling  through phase 8 .

but then you will ignore that signal too when that happens .

Get off the warm card bro , your reaching for every model anomaly that rushes the trough out  you can find .

The cold is coming , I dont know why you cant look at the macro view of where this pattern is going .

Most of the dynamics are in front of you .

You play the same song after every run .

 

gee you were pretty funny yourself back in late december when you stated that the best 2 - 3 week period in a long time was coming - you look kind of foolish now - and by the way I was interpretting the 12Z model run and everything I mentioned is accurate - it is warming up next weekend after the second shot of colder air  the 850's go from minus 12 here to about 0  in a short period of time - go put your glasses on and look at it closely - here is the link if you are too lazy to look for it then after the offshore storm on the model passes things cool down again

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county180.gif

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
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gee you were pretty funny yourself back in late december when you stated that the best 2 - 3 week period in a long time was coming - you look kind of foolish now - and by the way I was interpretting the 12Z model run and everything I mentioned is accurate - it is warming up next weekend after the second shot of colder air  the 850's go from minus 12 here to about 0  in a short period of time - go put your glasses on and look at it closely - here is the link if you are too lazy to look for it

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06_county180.gif

 

Lol  dec 20 i said we were goin into 3 weeks of great  winter weather , you had 1 snowstorm go to your west - and one to your east , you were so clueless , you couldnt understand that we missed a great 3 weeks by 100 miles .Sometimes you get the pattern , but since it only snowed in the lower hudson valley,  CT 3 times and New England  but missed your shanty it was a bust .

 On jan 2 - i said write jan off til jan 20 - how did that work out ?

You dont hav the capacity to make a forecast because you havent a clue what to look for

Euro weeklies , Euro Ensembles , Korean , Japanese monthly neg epo - neg ao - neg nao all progged

all vs ur 12z gfs lol which changes as much as your forecasts do .

I am hiring a step stool for my trading desk , send me your resume , i think you fit the criteria

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Dude , there are 3 systems on the playing field now between now and new years for snow or something wintry

It's not just the GFS the euro ensembles show it 20 below normal for the entire week after new years. Im curious what models or analysis r u using to come up with ur forecast

You said the same thing when most of us pointed to dec 20 as a pattern change

How about ths for a forecast

You are goin to see one of the best 2 to 3 week turnarounds that we've seen around here in a long time

Most weeklies point to it. And it's almost being modeled everywhere

So if you like snow and winter this is it.

 

lookie here PB - before you start making fun of me - just remember one of your big blunders

 

This quote puts you in the lead for Weenie of the year 2013 - sorry Snow88 ................

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

lookie here PB - before you start making fun of me - just remember one of your big blunders

 

Im not making fun at you , I am just pointing to you ignoring all the overwhelming signals of cold coming into the Northeast and probably sticking around  for the better part of  3 weeks.

It doesnt havent hav to be 20 days of 20 degrees but a week of cold , a week of normal and a week of cold . your average from jan 20 - feb 10 will be below normal .

Back in early Jan when the GFS was rushing the cold air back too soon i didnt buy it . Now its rushing the trough off the field too quick . Its what the GFS does its always progressive .

 

You seem to take the warmest side of any argument and if you dont see a blizzard in your town , you claim some kid of victory .

 

 Thats your right . But no one can ever bookmark your forecast , beacuse you never make one

You just  yell fire unless theres a shovel in your hand .

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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The system 12z GGEM has for the day 4-6 timeframe is a very very juicy and long duration system.

 

Hour 120:

 

P6_GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

Hour 132:

 

P6_GZ_D5_PN_132_0000.gif

 

Hour 144:

 

P6_GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

Reminds me a bit of PDII with the long duration and relatively weak low pressure system. You don't need a rapidly deepening system to get a KU.

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

Reminds me a bit of PDII with the long duration and relatively weak low pressure system. You don't need a rapidly deepening system to get a KU.

 

That storm also came into my mind as well.. of course that storm had more snow than what the 12z GGEM is currently depicting, but the 12z GGEM has close to an inch of liquid for NYC for this system, even though this storm is relatively weak.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

lookie here PB - before you start making fun of me - just remember one of your big blunders

 

This quote puts you in the lead for Weenie of the year 2013 - sorry Snow88 ................

 

I like ANT   , send me that resume , You stay warm now .

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Wannabehippie

Wannabehippie

Posted
Posted

There are many more strains of the flu circulating than contained in the vaccine. The vaccine attempts to target the most serious strain of the flu, at the time of production of the vaccine. However, viruses also change structure fairly rapidly over time, and thus, even the virus that is initially targeted in the vaccine may now look completely different. It's also unlikely that the vaccine would have built up enough of an exposure in most people to protect them from contracting a flu virus.

 

I got my flu shot back in october so it should have had time to build up in my system. 

 

An advantage of the shot is that even if the virus mutates, it should at least give you partial protection from it and if you do get the flu, it won't be as bad as if you didn't have the shot.

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Kaner587

Kaner587

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Posted

From Nick in the SNE thread.

 

This is really impressive.

17fpfs.gif

 

whats most impressive about this is the progression from near record low strasopheric temps to near record highs as the warming continues. What the result of this may be remains to be seen but I would not be surprised to see a major long term pattern change. This is probably our shot at salvaging winter.

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Kaner587

Kaner587

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Posted

the 12Z GFS is almost comical - pulling the same crap it did back in December when it had similar low temps for the first few days of 2013 - we all know how that turned out

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

 

It may be comical to you, and the chances of it occurring especially as depicted are low, but the models never had -30 degree 850 temps at our doorstep during late dec early january.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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So now that it obvious to everyone that the cold is coming the question is how long will it last , You can see that one of the last hope of this is just a transient shot is starting to dwindle - 3 days ago  the MJO  was goin to die in phase 6 - today the MJO is forecasted to get into phase 7 - and i believe in the next few days you will see the MJO progged to roll thru phase 8 in the out days .

You should see a pos PNA develop along with a NEG NAO .

I think its a colder than normal period thru Feb 10 . The Euro weeklies keep the trough in the east thru FEB 15 .

That mayb a little to far to see clearly but This is NOT a ONE and DONE shot thats starting on the 15th .

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Kaner587

Kaner587

Posted
Posted

with the way the pattern is going it looks like we have possibilities of small events, maybe moderate at best for the next 7-10 days. Its after this time where things could get interesting if that PV splits, which has been depicted on several diff models. 

 

Also at 168 -20 850 isotherm knocking on our doors. 

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Ericjcrash

Ericjcrash

Posted
Posted

the 12Z GFS is almost comical - pulling the same crap it did back in December when it had similar low temps for the first few days of 2013 - we all know how that turned out

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

 

-6 for KNYC, can't remember seeing temps progged that long in a while, too bad in reality it will be closer to 30.

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