Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[Allsnow]

The 6z GFS had some light precipitation into the region at hour 102 while surface temperatures are generally in the mid 30s and 850s are below freezing. Not sure if this is frozen or not though, considering that there could be mid level warm layers.

That would be frozen from Ttn north.

[Snow_Miser]

Euro has this wave also. Hopefully the pv stays a bit further north. 00z got qpf up to acy

 

Yeah, the 12z ECMWF should be interesting to see how it handles this wave of precipitation and if it trends towards the CMC with the placement of the wave.

[Snow_Miser]

6z DGEX total snow accumulation:

 

[Sampson]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPNA174.html

If this verifies, there will be a zombified brigade of flu victims storming the metro area.

[friedmators]

Asked this another forum but what constitutes the EURO monthly run?  Is it a single instance or sort of an ensemble?

 

Hours 252 and 516 have bombs.

[chietanen]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPNA174.html

If this verifies, there will be a zombified brigade of flu victims storming the metro area.

 

Interestingly, there is really no solid association between influenza and weather conditions.  The only correlation that has been made is that when it's very cold, people tend to congregate more in close quarters, which could potentially increase the spread of the virus (though we already do that during winter in the Northeast).  But if you look at Google Flu Trends (which I prefer to follow over the CDC as it provides real time data) you can see Influenza activity is intense in almost every state in the country, regardless of the temperatures (including intense in Florida and high in Hawaii).  The flu season this year is particularly intense because there are two different strains circulating than the last few years (so there is less natural and vaccine induced immunity in the population), the A H3N2 strain is particularly virulent, and because about half of Americans think the flu shot is an unnecessary evil.

 

In any event, taking this back to weather, I was a pediatric resident working in the pediatric ER in Syracuse during the January 2004 cold outbreak, and during and for about a week after the cold outbreak, the ER was practically empty.  It was so cold that school was canceled for several days in a row, and I think that is what slowed the illness down as kids are primarily responsible for spreading illness and if they aren't going to school, they tend not to get sick as easily.

 

BTW, really impessed by the durability of this snowpack up here in Poughkeepsie.  Still have at least a few inches IMBY and I'd say from the two events we only got in the neighborhood of 8" total.  I think the ice that came after the several inches of snow from the first storm has really helped.  I don't see it lasting through the weekend though. 

[IsentropicLift]

6z DGEX total snow accumulation:

 

 

This is from the strom on Tuesday. The storm on Friday is OTS this run

 

[Snow_Miser]

The 06z GEFS are wetter than the operational for Tuesday into Wednesday.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12108.gif

[Sampson]

Interestingly, there is really no solid association between influenza and weather conditions. The only correlation that has been made is that when it's very cold, people tend to congregate more in close quarters, which could potentially increase the spread of the virus (though we already do that during winter in the Northeast). But if you look at Google Flu Trends (which I prefer to follow over the CDC as it provides real time data) you can see Influenza activity is intense in almost every state in the country, regardless of the temperatures (including intense in Florida and high in Hawaii). The flu season this year is particularly intense because there are two different strains circulating than the last few years (so there is less natural and vaccine induced immunity in the population), the A H3N2 strain is particularly virulent, and because about half of Americans think the flu shot is an unnecessary evil.

In any event, taking this back to weather, I was a pediatric resident working in the pediatric ER in Syracuse during the January 2004 cold outbreak, and during and for about a week after the cold outbreak, the ER was practically empty. It was so cold that school was canceled for several days in a row, and I think that is what slowed the illness down as kids are primarily responsible for spreading illness and if they aren't going to school, they tend not to get sick as easily.

BTW, really impessed by the durability of this snowpack up here in Poughkeepsie. Still have at least a few inches IMBY and I'd say from the two events we only got in the neighborhood of 8" total. I think the ice that came after the several inches of snow from the first storm has really helped. I don't see it lasting through the weekend though.

Wrong. The zombies are coming and you know it.

[IsentropicLift]

The 00z GGEM continues with the idea that we could see some snow in the day 6 timeframe.

 

 

The 00z GGEM has sort of a hybrid miller A/miller B. The energy comes from the deep south and begins working its way up the Apps before running into the high over SE Canada and redeveloping right off the Jersey shore. Could be a very big storm if this occurs as it looks like the system would be slow to move out.

[chietanen]

Wrong. The zombies are coming and you know it.

 

You're right.  I'm trying to convince myself otherwise!  It's busy enough already, don't need it getting worse!

[NEG NAO]

Here is the official Influenza site with just about all the info you will need: luckily the Flu shot is very effective this year as the main strains showing up in patients are the ones included in this years flu vaccine..........

 

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

[Sampson]

I'm never joking around about the flu again.  It's the equivalent of bringing up the middle east in here.  My OP was intended to be a funny way of showing a cold GFS image in the context of this thread.  It all stemmed from this gem posted on a weather board in winter:

not sure why everyone wants cold weather...there's a flu outbreak ongoing, will only make things worse. 

 

Sorry for the derailment.

[Isotherm]

Here is the official Influenza site with just about all the info you will need: luckily the Flu shot is very effective this year as the main strains showing up in patients are the ones included in this years flu vaccine..........

 

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

 

 

There are many more strains of the flu circulating than contained in the vaccine. The vaccine attempts to target the most serious strain of the flu, at the time of production of the vaccine. However, viruses also change structure fairly rapidly over time, and thus, even the virus that is initially targeted in the vaccine may now look completely different. It's also unlikely that the vaccine would have built up enough of an exposure in most people to protect them from contracting a flu virus.

[Isotherm]

Today's MJO proggs are generally more bullish w/ propagating the wave through phase 7. The GFS tries to weaken it, before another movement into phase 7.

EPO also progged to remain negative which will be crucial in dampening the SE ridge:

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Today's MJO proggs are generally more bullish w/ propagating the wave through phase 7. The GFS tries to weaken it, before another movement into phase 7.

EPO also progged to remain negative which wil be crucial in dampening the SE ridge:

 

Whoa! This looks pretty good for the next 10 days.

[MJO812]

MJO plots are favorable today

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

[NEG NAO]

There are many more strains of the flu circulating than contained in the vaccine. The vaccine attempts to target the most serious strain of the flu, at the time of production of the vaccine. However, viruses also change structure fairly rapidly over time, and thus, even the virus that is initially targeted in the vaccine may now look completely different. It's also unlikely that the vaccine would have built up enough of an exposure in most people to protect them from contracting a flu virus.

 

But if you got the flu shot more then 2 weeks ago and contract a strain contained in the vaccine this year --your symptoms should be milder - thats one of the reasons to get a flu shot also..........

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS shows the wave in question closing off and stronger over the SW. It then slowly ejects eastward and is being sheared out as it moves through the region on 1/19. something to watch, but that pig of a PV up in Canada really kills any chances of a more amplified system. We need a piece of that PV to break off and phase.

[MJO812]

Wow, the GFS is cold.

[NEG NAO]

A breakdown of the 12Z GFS for the Metro - the cold front comes through next Tuesday 1 /15 with some rain preceding it - then things clear out and the initial shot of colder air till friday 1/18 maxes out the 850's at minus 9 then the second shot of cold air comes through early friday and after that the core of the coldest air is moving into southeast canada and we get 850's down to around minus 12 - then the core of the arctic air starts moving northeast and things warm up over the weekend - a storm develops in the southeast saturday and moves just offshore missing us late saturday 1/19 night

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12_county204.gif

[MJO812]

GFS has a nice ridge out west on this run with a favorable epo.

[SnoSki14]

Insane shot of cold air 276-300hrs, pure fantasy but crazy nonetheless. 

[MJO812]

GGEM still showing snow

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[SnowGoose69]

The system at Day 4-6 really starting to get lost on the last few runs

[NEG NAO]

GFS has a nice ridge out west on this run with a favorable epo.

 

see what happens in the coming runs but the core of the arctic air is in a bad position and is on the move through southern canada to southeast canada then starts lifting out without any phase with the storm developing in the southeast - so the pattern is still very progressive makes you wonder how strong the negative NAO is or is it closer to neutral at that time..........

[MJO812]

see what happens in the coming runs but the core of the arctic air is in a bad position and is on the move through southern canada to southeast canada then starts lifting out without any phase with the storm developing in the southeast - so the pattern is still very progressive makes you wonder how strong the negative NAO is or is it closer to neutral at that time..........

 

The EPO will also be a main factor.

[SnoSki14]

I guess we'll have to see what happens then. Meanwhile a good 3 day stretch of spring-like weather incoming. I'm thinking we over achieve especially on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 60s. 

[NEG NAO]

The EPO will also be a main factor.

 

you need the other indicies to cooperate and work together with the EPO - that GFS run is very progressive...........

[Snow_Miser]

Looks like the 12z GGEM would bring a moderate snowstorm to the area, looping through it.