Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[NEG NAO]

Ok. So we hav it on record. U are sayin its not goin to get cold. The euro ensembles hav seen the cold coming. So do the weeklies. And when the euro weeklies shoeed warm in late dec i wrote off the first three weeks of jan off. So there we hav it. U and atown believe the gfs and i will buy the euro. I will bookmark it for u two

 

your chance to get even - time will tell should be interesting - for the record my position is it will cool down next week to close to normal but the first shot of cold air will be transient - 17th - 23rd then we warm back up again to finish the month - temps for the month will average 3 - 5 degrees above normal for the month in NYC metro - snowfall NYC metro as of right now - trace for the month.......reason I belive this is the MJO going from phase 6 to several days in phase 7  then loops back into phase 6 and all the while the PNA stays negative - once the MJO  loops back into phase 6 the southeast ridge makes a comeback to finish the month....

[PB GFI]

Of course jan will finish above normal. Jan 20 feb 10 my call below normal nyc. Fwiw. Euro out tonite. Neg nao thru feb. 15. I will stop at 10

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

your chance to get even - time will tell should be interesting - for the record my position is it will cool down next week to close to normal but the first shot of cold air will be transient - 17th - 23rd then we warm back up again to finish the month - temps for the month will average 3 - 5 degrees above normal for the month in NYC metro - snowfall NYC metro as of right now - trace for the month.......reason I belive this is the MJO going from phase 6 to several days in phase 7  then loops back into phase 6 and all the while the PNA stays negative - once the MJO  loops back into phase 6 the southeast ridge makes a comeback to finish the month....

Funny how I feared a repeat of last winter... As a whole its going down pretty similar especially with the never ending talk of pattern change to cold on the models that never comes to fruition,..

 

Starting to get scary for the rest of the winter!!

[Guest Pamela]

 - snowfall NYC metro as of right now - trace for the month...

 

 

That would be really something...if NYC ends up with just a trace for January...I think I would have to reconsider many of my root assumptions if that happens...after being almost completely shut out the last two Decembers and, save for one light to moderate storm, shut out last January.

[BxEngine]

Funny how I feared a repeat of last winter... As a whole its going down pretty similar especially with the never ending talk of pattern change to cold on the models that never comes to fruition,..

 

Starting to get scary for the rest of the winter!!

Why does this saying still get play? This warm up was as well modeled as we have seen in a while.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Why does this saying still get play? This warm up was as well modeled as we have seen in a while.

 

I am not talking about the warmup at all rather what comes next. If you were to believe (I assume most here dont but its a good analogy) accuweather a few days ago we were headed for a 2004 esk end to January. While its still possible the month ends cold its just normal January cold, nothing to cancel out the torch incoming.

 

Another thing, it has been a better winter then last north and west what I am saying is more coastal issue as I have had .2 and .3 for my two accumulations since 6 inches in November.

[BxEngine]

Maybe take the accuweather complaints to accuweather? I dont think anyone here worth listening to was hyping anything historic.

[CooL]

I must be missing something - where is the favorable PNA on this ? all I see is negative

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

Sadly you don't know how to read a weather map

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I must be missing something - where is the favorable PNA on this ? all I see is negative

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

Actually the PNA is Negative-Neutral. Or mostly Neutral.

[NorEaster27]

Excluding November does the park have more snow this year or last

[famartin]

Excluding November does the park have more snow this year or last

 

If you exclude November this year, do you exclude October from last year?  If you do, than this year is ahead I think, but not by much.

[Guest Pamela]

I think there is  a good chance for some progress over the next 3 weeks...hopefully.  If not, it is what it is.

[Isotherm]

The high latitude pattern has been polar opposite to last winter thus far, it's just that we've encountered a very rare scenario in which the first -AO episode didn't give us any cold/snow due to the overpowering Pacific. Given the high latitude regime looks to maintain going forward, it'd be very difficult to believe we don't eventually get some snow opportunities this winter.

[green tube]

 it is what it is.

 

one of the great expressions of all time.  succinct, indisputable and incapable of being misunderstood.

[SnoSki14]

Pretty ugly gfs op tonight, very zonal, PNA breaks down, I hope it's just a blip but it is a definite possibility as winter patterns love to repeat themselves throughout the season. The -NAO/AO with an ugly pacific might return which does not make it easy for us. 

[mattinpa]

Pretty ugly gfs op tonight, very zonal, PNA breaks down, I hope it's just a blip but it is a definite possibility as winter patterns love to repeat themselves throughout the season. The -NAO/AO with an ugly pacific might return which does not make it easy for us.

Actually it is cold for much of the run. But so far, we can't time the cold with the snow. There is potential, though.

[IsentropicLift]

Still have a fairly decent snowpack up this way. There are bare spots all around but some places that aren't getting the sun that still have some decent snow. At this point I just want it out of here.

[NEG NAO]

Sadly you don't know how to read a weather map

 

we will see who laughs last - BTW how do you like your PNA crow served ?

[CooL]

Euro has plenty of cold and a massive PNA after the torch

 

wow

[MJO812]

Euro has plenty of cold and a massive PNA after the torch

 

wow

 

Much better than the GFS. Looks like the weeklies.

[MJO812]

we will see who laughs last - BTW how do you like your PNA crow served ?

 

Explain why do you think a -pna will happen?

[Edge Weather]

This morning's Euro control run brings the next Friday storm further north, with the significant precipitation running through Virginia and getting as close as Cape May. This would not surprise me at all, as the Euro has been over-doing the cold push all winter. I doubt that the PV will crush things as far south as the Euro is currently showing. This one might be a real threat for Friday. Maybe. Isn't this how most of our real threats start out, with the storm looking like it will hit Virginia, then they trend north? Food for thought.

[PB GFI]

Just get ready for colder weather . The challenge going forward in next 3 weeks will b timing the cold with any southern branch energy. I cant tell u if and when it will snow. But the pattern shouldnt still b the argument but What results from it .

[NEG NAO]

Explain why do you think a -pna will happen?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

then go to the MJO=last time I checked the Euro was showing their MJO looping back from phase    7 to 6 did this change ? BTW if it did change and is not looping back maybe the EURO is right about the PNA

[Snow_Miser]

The 00z GGEM continues with the idea that we could see some snow in the day 6 timeframe.

 

[Weathergun]

In the 0z suite, the GFS was an outlier in handling the PNA:

 

 

[Allsnow]

The 00z GGEM continues with the idea that we could see some snow in the day 6 timeframe.

Euro has this wave also. Hopefully the pv stays a bit further north. 00z got qpf up to acy

[Snow_Miser]

The 6z GFS had some light precipitation into the region at hours 102-108 while surface temperatures are generally in the mid 30s and 850s are below freezing. Not sure if this is frozen or not though, considering that there could be mid level warm layers.

 

[Snow_Miser]

In the 0z suite, the GFS was an outlier in handling the PNA:

 

 

The 6z GFS confirms this, now having a monster +PNA/-EPO:

 

[PB GFI]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

then go to the MJO=last time I checked the Euro was showing their MJO looping back from phase 7 to 6 did this change ? BTW if it did change and is not looping back maybe the EURO is right about the PNA

Yo didnt i already get even when i wrote on jan 3 writing off winter til jan 20. Chill the cold is coming and it thnk ur below avg over a 3 week period