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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Ok. So we hav it on record. U are sayin its not goin to get cold. The euro ensembles hav seen the cold coming. So do the weeklies. And when the euro weeklies shoeed warm in late dec i wrote off the first three weeks of jan off. So there we hav it. U and atown believe the gfs and i will buy the euro. I will bookmark it for u two

 

your chance to get even - time will tell should be interesting - for the record my position is it will cool down next week to close to normal but the first shot of cold air will be transient - 17th - 23rd then we warm back up again to finish the month - temps for the month will average 3 - 5 degrees above normal for the month in NYC metro - snowfall NYC metro as of right now - trace for the month.......reason I belive this is the MJO going from phase 6 to several days in phase 7  then loops back into phase 6 and all the while the PNA stays negative - once the MJO  loops back into phase 6 the southeast ridge makes a comeback to finish the month....

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
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your chance to get even - time will tell should be interesting - for the record my position is it will cool down next week to close to normal but the first shot of cold air will be transient - 17th - 23rd then we warm back up again to finish the month - temps for the month will average 3 - 5 degrees above normal for the month in NYC metro - snowfall NYC metro as of right now - trace for the month.......reason I belive this is the MJO going from phase 6 to several days in phase 7  then loops back into phase 6 and all the while the PNA stays negative - once the MJO  loops back into phase 6 the southeast ridge makes a comeback to finish the month....

Funny how I feared a repeat of last winter... As a whole its going down pretty similar especially with the never ending talk of pattern change to cold on the models that never comes to fruition,..

 

Starting to get scary for the rest of the winter!!

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

 - snowfall NYC metro as of right now - trace for the month...

 

 

That would be really something...if NYC ends up with just a trace for January...I think I would have to reconsider many of my root assumptions if that happens...after being almost completely shut out the last two Decembers and, save for one light to moderate storm, shut out last January.

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted

Funny how I feared a repeat of last winter... As a whole its going down pretty similar especially with the never ending talk of pattern change to cold on the models that never comes to fruition,..

 

Starting to get scary for the rest of the winter!!

Why does this saying still get play? This warm up was as well modeled as we have seen in a while.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
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Why does this saying still get play? This warm up was as well modeled as we have seen in a while.

 

I am not talking about the warmup at all rather what comes next. If you were to believe (I assume most here dont but its a good analogy) accuweather a few days ago we were headed for a 2004 esk end to January. While its still possible the month ends cold its just normal January cold, nothing to cancel out the torch incoming.

 

Another thing, it has been a better winter then last north and west what I am saying is more coastal issue as I have had .2 and .3 for my two accumulations since 6 inches in November.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

The high latitude pattern has been polar opposite to last winter thus far, it's just that we've encountered a very rare scenario in which the first -AO episode didn't give us any cold/snow due to the overpowering Pacific. Given the high latitude regime looks to maintain going forward, it'd be very difficult to believe we don't eventually get some snow opportunities this winter.

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mattinpa

mattinpa

Posted
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Pretty ugly gfs op tonight, very zonal, PNA breaks down, I hope it's just a blip but it is a definite possibility as winter patterns love to repeat themselves throughout the season. The -NAO/AO with an ugly pacific might return which does not make it easy for us.

Actually it is cold for much of the run. But so far, we can't time the cold with the snow. There is potential, though.

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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This morning's Euro control run brings the next Friday storm further north, with the significant precipitation running through Virginia and getting as close as Cape May. This would not surprise me at all, as the Euro has been over-doing the cold push all winter. I doubt that the PV will crush things as far south as the Euro is currently showing. This one might be a real threat for Friday. Maybe. Isn't this how most of our real threats start out, with the storm looking like it will hit Virginia, then they trend north? Food for thought.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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Posted

Just get ready for colder weather . The challenge going forward in next 3 weeks will b timing the cold with any southern branch energy. I cant tell u if and when it will snow. But the pattern shouldnt still b the argument but What results from it .

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

then go to the MJO=last time I checked the Euro was showing their MJO looping back from phase 7 to 6 did this change ? BTW if it did change and is not looping back maybe the EURO is right about the PNA

Yo didnt i already get even when i wrote on jan 3 writing off winter til jan 20. Chill the cold is coming and it thnk ur below avg over a 3 week period

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