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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

3 threats on the euro and very cold air with a favorable NAO and PNA going forward

Hopefully the one on the 18th can phase alittle more with the PV which suppresses it this run

Monster setup at day 10 with a huge ridge out west.

 

I must be missing something - where is the favorable PNA on this ? all I see is negative

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

I must be missing something - where is the favorable PNA on this ? all I see is negative

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

The PNA can be outdone by the EPO...in Jan/Feb 1994 the PNA averaged about -0.30 or so and was nearly -1.00 for February but the EPO masked it for the most part outside of the southern MA and Southeast U.S.  A -PNA/-EPO is good generally for PHL north...places like DC/Richmond/Raleigh/Atlanta/Nashville are the ones who get screwed if they want any winter weather in that setup as you're generally unable to get any sort of 1985 or 1989 type deal with arctic airmasses plunging well south.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Euro has wintry precip north of the city. Wouldn't take much to get it to trend south.

 

Considering how poor models resolve these exact setups with big highs to the north like that it would not surprise me if that storm ultimately wound up fairly suppressed and even missed most of the area.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

18Z GFS has no snowstorms for NYC metro throughout the entire run - plus Upton is not impressed at all for next week after the front passes highs in the uppper 30's next wednesday/thursday

The ensembles and weeklies are going to catch this pattern before a one off operational run. The cold is coming. What happens after that will b sorted over time

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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

The ensembles and weeklies are going to catch this pattern before a one off operational run. The cold is coming. What happens after that will b sorted over time

 

The GFS ensembles in the 11-15 day range have not been too cold. The operational run of the 18Z GFS just came in kind of warm at the 850 level in the same time range... The weeklies are only good if they are showing cold but when they were showing warm we were told that they have not been doing to good this year.

 

post-342-0-01608100-1357859216_thumb.gif

 

Seems like guidance is beginning to suggest transient cold shot of weather and this is largely related to the - PNA and also dependent on what the MJO does. If it never makes it out of phase 6 then we are going to be looking at a warmer pattern. If it briefly goes into 7 then back to 6 we would be looking at transient cold before moderating and that seems to be the best bet at the present time..

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

The GFS ensembles in the 11-15 day range have not been too cold. The operational run of the 18Z GFS just came in kind of warm at the 850 level in the same time range... The weeklies are only good if they are showing cold but when they were showing warm we were told that they have not been doing to good this year.

 

attachicon.gif18zGFS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif

 

Seems like guidance is beginning to suggest transient cold shot of weather and this is largely related to the - PNA and also dependent on what the MJO does. If it never makes it out of phase 6 then we are going to be looking at a warmer pattern. If it briefly goes into 7 then back to 6 we would be looking at transient cold before moderating and that seems to be the best bet at the present time..

 

exactly - now try to convince the ones with the snow goggles on all the time...........

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Snowshack

Snowshack

Posted
Posted

They are but who knows how right they are, 2 weeks ago they showed a blowtorch 10 days from now and barring a miracle thats gonna fall flat on its face.

 

About the only thing you can say is better to have them on our side.  Until this multi year warm cycle is broken, anything showing frigid in the medium term has to be taken with a grain of salt

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

exactly - now try to convince the ones with the snow goggles on all the time...........

Ok. So we hav it on record. U are sayin its not goin to get cold. The euro ensembles hav seen the cold coming. So do the weeklies. And when the euro weeklies shoeed warm in late dec i wrote off the first three weeks of jan off. So there we hav it. U and atown believe the gfs and i will buy the euro. I will bookmark it for u two
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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

Ok. So we hav it on record. U are sayin its not goin to get cold. The euro ensembles hav seen the cold coming. So do the weeklies. And when the euro weeklies shoeed warm in late dec i wrote off the first three weeks of jan off. So there we hav it. U and atown believe the gfs and i will buy the euro. I will bookmark it for u too

 

Not at one time did i say it was not going to get cold ..I said that it will be more transient and that is exactly what the OP ecm shows. Coldest air moves into Northern New England by 240 hours out. The coldest air is over the region at 216 hrs out...

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

The GFS ensembles in the 11-15 day range have not been too cold. The operational run of the 18Z GFS just came in kind of warm at the 850 level in the same time range... The weeklies are only good if they are showing cold but when they were showing warm we were told that they have not been doing to good this year.

18zGFS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif

Seems like guidance is beginning to suggest transient cold shot of weather and this is largely related to the - PNA and also dependent on what the MJO does. If it never makes it out of phase 6 then we are going to be looking at a warmer pattern. If it briefly goes into 7 then back to 6 we would be looking at transient cold before moderating and that seems to be the best bet at the present time..

So of all the weeklies euro ensembles u choose to look at a 10 day mjo prog to determine its transient. When u wake up three days and the prog of the mjo is rolling thru 8 day 10 what will u say then. The cold is coming. I will take s three week period from jan 20 thru feb 10 and tell u i thnk that period ends up below nornal. U can b skeptical. But u havent a clue what i wrote whn the weeklies said warm back around the new year.
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atownwxwatcher

atownwxwatcher

Posted
Posted

So of all the weeklies euro ensembles u choose to look at a 10 day mjo prog to determine its transient. When u wake up three days and the prog of the mjo is rolling thru 8 what will u say then. The cold is coming. I will take s three week period from jan 20 thru feb 10 and tell u i thnk that period ends up below nornal. U can b skeptical. But u havent a clue what i wrote whn the weeklies said warm back around the new year.

 

As was stated the ECM weeklies just a short while ago showed a blow torch coming up and how is that going to work out? So because they are now cold they become gospel? You can not have it both ways.. 

 

Transient cold is based on the teleconnections with the PNA staying strongly negative..

post-342-0-32556700-1357864726_thumb.png

 

The epo staying more neutral negative

post-342-0-65406600-1357864752_thumb.png

 

And the fact that guidance has been warming up in the longer range compared to showing it cold..

 

post-342-0-55847100-1357864885_thumb.gif

 

So its not just the GFS but it is the ECM as well..and dependent on what the MJO does..

 

Presently the MJO is in phase 5 which is a warm phase...

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

When the euro weeklies back in last week in dec i wrote jan done til the 20 th. U can find that jan 2 or 3. Scroll back. When the weeklies saw the cold a week ago i turned to the cold card. So no both ways here. The last 3 euro werklies inc tonite now show colder than normsl when u total up the next three weeks. So if the first shot lasts less thsn a week it comes back. This is not in and out rather a good three week pattern on the way.

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

This is what a meteorologist has to say about the ECMWF Weeklies:

 

"Euro weeklies have the eastern US in below normal temps for weeks 2, 3, and 4 due to a +PNA pattern together with an impressive -NAO/-AO. Week 2 has below normal precip. while 3 and 4 are above normal. So, overall this is a third in a row excellent release, so yes we can believe them. Consistency. Today's weeks 2 and 3 match the prior two weeklies' weeks 3 and 4, respectively. Week 4 is a brand new week for the Euro weeklies that ends on 2/10."

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