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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Cold *could* indirectly cause the immune system to weaken because more energy is being diverted from defense and towards keeping the body warm, but that's not the immune system that keeps the body warm.

 

However, your theory about dryness doesn't make sense; otherwise, I'd always be sick out here because the RH much of the summer is down near 10%.

 

The theory about people staying indoors during winter more has more traction.

 

 

 

Yeah but no one lives out there - you need to have people to spread viruses. ;)

 

I think it's probably a combination of close quarters w/ a lot of people indoors and the drier air.

 

According to this source, virus spread is enhanced in cold/dry air:

 

http://preventdisease.com/news/09/112309_flu_virus_thrives_winter.shtml

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

There was some discussion yesterday regarding the potential breakdown of the PNA ridging and a return to the -PDO base state pattern of low heights PAC NW and high heights in the Eastern US.

 

The 06z GFS ensembles maintain higher than normal heights off the West Coast and blocking across the top of the globe, which now keeps the negative H5 height anomalies in the MW/Northeast through 384:

 

Once we get past 120hrs, we're in the blue thereafter through the end of the run:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html#picture

 

I agree, I think its a multi week plunge . Will be our best chance this year pattern wise .

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

I agree, I think its a multi week plunge . Will be our best chance this year pattern wise .

 

It's going to be difficult to sustain the cold for more than 5 -7 days without help form the PNA.  After

that we may be closer to normal or a bit above to close out the month. The cold  would have lasted 

if it coincided with PNA rise we are just coming out of.

 

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

It's going to be difficult to sustain the cold for more than 5 -7 days without help form the PNA.  After

that we may be closer to normal or a bit above to close out the month. The cold  would have lasted 

if it coincided with PNA rise we are just coming out of.

 

attachicon.gifpna.sprd2.gif

 

All I see for the next few weeks is very warm and rain to very cold and dry to another warmup and that sort of wraps up January..another mild and snowless month..hopefully February can save us from another horrific winter

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

For next Tuesday's storm, 12z Euro has Sussex as all snow with .44 precip and it has Andover .2 degrees celsius from being all snow, with a mix, and Caldwell .7 degrees from being all snow.  It also is pulling out a rather vigorous storm into the Southeast on Thursday.  Should be very interesting come next weekend.  

 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

It's going to be difficult to sustain the cold for more than 5 -7 days without help form the PNA.  After

that we may be closer to normal or a bit above to close out the month. The cold  would have lasted 

if it coincided with PNA rise we are just coming out of.

 

attachicon.gifpna.sprd2.gif

 

 

 

 

Disagree Chris. The major problem so far this winter has been the EPO being in a positive state, with low heights in the eastern GOA and the AK region. That has already changed as the EPO is now negative, with rapidly building heights south of Alaska. Our temperatures are more correlated to EPO variations than the PNA.

 

If the EPO remains negative over the coming weeks, the Northeast should be biased cold regardless of the PNA signal. There will be resistance from the SE-Ridge as the PNA exerts more influence the further south one goes, but I don't agree that the PNA will determine our cold pattern. If the coming regime fails it will be due to the EPO heading back positive or the NAO block failing IMO.

 

compare.we.png

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

It's going to be difficult to sustain the cold for more than 5 -7 days without help form the PNA.  After

that we may be closer to normal or a bit above to close out the month. The cold  would have lasted 

if it coincided with PNA rise we are just coming out of.

 

attachicon.gifpna.sprd2.gif

 

 

You maybe able to force the cold into the Northeast for a bit  with a NEG AO and if you can muster up a NEG NAO .

 

With a NEG PNA i agree the  southern jet will break through and that wouldnt be ideal for the immediate coast , but the Northeast as a whole would stay below .If the Atlantic side can block up any escape east .

Think all those detes will get sorted , I like the overall look of the pattern , the Euro weeklies did hav week 2 cold - week 3 normal and week 4  back to cold .So a pull back possible

So mayb its not a straight  3 week ice box , but overall should b below normal when you total up that period.

New Weeklies tonite .

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Yup. Makes me Optimistic, but still cautious. Although according to Climo, this already has more than a 50% chance of happening.

 

 

 

Caution is always wise at this stage.

 

Things I'd like to see change/improve in the coming model runs:

 

1) MJO wave propagating intoo phase 7/8 on the ECMWF and GFS

2) GFS depicting a stronger greenland block w/ more SW extension like the Euro. This crushes the PV further south and gives us a colder pattern

 

Also need to continue seeing the maintenance of the -EPO ridging which will provide good cold air drainage, even if there is a bit of -PNA/troughing in the West.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Disagree Chris. The major problem so far this winter has been the EPO being in a positive state, with low heights in the eastern GOA and the AK region. That has already changed as the EPO is now negative, with rapidly building heights south of Alaska. Our temperatures are more correlated to EPO variations than the PNA.

 

If the EPO remains negative over the coming weeks, the Northeast should be biased cold regardless of the PNA signal. There will be resistance from the SE-Ridge as the PNA exerts more influence the further south one goes, but I don't agree that the PNA will determine our cold pattern. If the coming regime fails it will be due to the EPO heading back positive or the NAO block failing IMO.

 

compare.we.png

 

I think that the EPO will even out or become slightly positive after the 24th should the ridge that

the Euro ens and GEFS advertise south of the Aleutians come to pass. I still believe that the 25-31st

looks normal  to above normal as the Pacific Jet breaks through again. 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

3 threats on the euro and very cold air with a favorable NAO and PNA going forward

Hopefully the one on the 18th can phase alittle more with the PV which suppresses it this run

Monster setup at day 10 with a huge ridge out west.

 

list the 3 threats

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Plenty of cold on our side of the globe as the PV gets crushed south by the NAO blocking. This is the Euro:

302ckeb.png

We havent seen a cold set up like this in 2 years. Think u have to embrace it . Don't know what the end result will be snow wise , but this setup turns into a either dynamite period or the one where u sit back and say. How in the hell did that not yield anything.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

We havent seen a cold set up like this in 2 years. Think u have to embrace it . Don't know what the end result will be snow wise , but this setup turns into a either dynamite period or the one where u sit back and say. How in the hell did that not yield anything.

 

have a feeling we will be asking the question............

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Having the PV on our side of the globe for once and really close to us is definitely interesting. We've seen how intense the cold has been in Europe and parts of Asia when it was on the other side of the globe so that actually gives me some hope. The biggest question is how long will we stay cold. I'm not looking for a transient cold shot because it does nothing for us and will highly limit the snow chances, so I hope the blocking signal gets stronger in future runs. 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Having the PV on our side of the globe for once and really close to us is definitely interesting. We've seen how intense the cold has been in Europe and parts of Asia when it was on the other side of the globe so that actually gives me some hope. The biggest question is how long will we stay cold. I'm not looking for a transient cold shot because it does nothing for us and will highly limit the snow chances, so I hope the blocking signal gets stronger in future runs. 

 

the PNA will have alot to say about transient or not and so will the stubborn southeast ridge working with the negative PNA

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