Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[Momza]

not sure why everyone wants cold weather...there's a flu outbreak ongoing, will only make things worse. 

 

Does milder weather in winter help curb the flu?

[MJO812]

Lol what? Your previous 3 posts before this were about the long range.

He's talking about no snow chances up coming. Let the cold settle in first then worry about that . I do think we will have shots at snow.

[forkyfork]

It could easily be cold and dry

[MJO812]

It could easily be cold and dry

It all depends on the pv.

[Brian5671]

not sure why everyone wants cold weather...there's a flu outbreak ongoing, will only make things worse. 

LOL-cold or warmth has nothing to do with the spread of the flu. Some of these myths just never die.

[PB GFI]

Would have been nice to see what minus 25 air @ 850 would have done if there was deep snow cover here .

[NEG NAO]

Would have been nice to see what minus 25 air @ 850 would have done if there was deep snow cover here .

 

Very true - and we do not want minus 25 air here because that just supresses the storm track -and north carolina and VA usually end up with the snow - want the 850's around half that to start with the cold air supply in eastern canada....

[Allsnow]

HM latest thoughts in sne did not sound great for us. Said pv will squash anything in the southern jet, and when it lifts out it will lead to more messy events. Hopefully it does not work out that way

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

As Snow88 mentioned, it depends on the PV. If it centers itself over SE Canada, then the chances of snow could be reduced. Although if the PV is just to the South of the Hudson Bay or even over it, it'll definitely reel in some decent chances of snow.

[NEG NAO]

still a lot of mixed signals with the MJO and the various model solutions - just highlight - run your curser over every model in the graph below - will it be phase  6 to 7 ---- 6 to 7 back to 6 - - 6 to 7 to 8 ??? all solutions are showing up.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

 

other problem is the AO - NAO - and PNA working together - PNA is especially tied into the MJO - unfortunately can't be to excited for our chances of a prolonged cold/snowy pattern change since the PNA is forecasted to go quite negative

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[SnowGoose69]

LOL-cold or warmth has nothing to do with the spread of the flu. Some of these myths just never die.

 

It does, indirectly so, it results in people who do not dress properly or heat their houses correctly either by choice or due to financial constraints getting lowered immune resistance and getting sick, if you cause your body to have to overwork warming you up it can allow those viruses or bacteria to get a window of opportunity to attack.  The more people in those situations get sick, the more people there are to spread it around.

[MJO812]

still a lot of mixed signals with the MJO and the various model solutions - just highlight - run your curser over every model in the graph below - will it be phase  6 to 7 ---- 6 to 7 back to 6 - - 6 to 7 to 8 ??? all solutions are showing up.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

 

other problem is the AO - NAO - and PNA working together - PNA is especially tied into the MJO - unfortunately can't be to excited for our chances of a prolonged cold/snowy pattern change since the PNA is forecasted to go quite negative

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

 

I have seen these maps change alot.

[NEG NAO]

I have seen these maps change alot.

 

and your point ????

[MJO812]

and your point ????

 

You can't it seriously

 

Anyway, nice pna ridge in the west on the GFS.

[Allsnow]

Gfs is cold and try after next weeks rain. It's def below normal, but squashes everything. Hopefully we get some type of clipper

[famartin]

I have seen these maps change alot.

 

 

and your point ????

 

 

Don't trust those. Just look at the models and observations. The 12z GFS now has a big pna ridge.

 

 

Those are models lol

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Actually this is to be expected. The Computer Models are starting to notice some influences from both the MJO and the SSW which very well work like brothers-in-arms. So that loop that you are seeing from Phase 6-7-6-7 will could happen, but the question is: Will the pulse of energy from the MJO enter into Phase 8? Even if it does, will it be strong enough and last long enough? Well, that's why observing is so critical in these type of situations.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Looks like there a brief West-Based -NAO moment on the 12Z GFS from the 17th-21st.

[NEG NAO]

anyone who is using the GFS past day 5 by itself  to forecast the PNA is going to probably be wrong-- use this instead:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[eduggs]

It does, indirectly so, it results in people who do not dress properly or heat their houses correctly either by choice or due to financial constraints getting lowered immune resistance and getting sick, if you cause your body to have to overwork warming you up it can allow those viruses or bacteria to get a window of opportunity to attack.  The more people in those situations get sick, the more people there are to spread it around.

 

I believe that's actually mostly a myth too...  The old wives tale about bundling up or you'll catch a cold.  More likely, the reason cold and winter are associated with increased viral activity is because people stay inside in closer contact with each other.  Viruses flourish when they are easily spread between multiple hosts.  An individuals slightly decreased immune system should not have that large an effect at spreading disease overall.

[famartin]

I believe that's actually mostly a myth too...  The old wives tale about bundling up or you'll catch a cold.  More likely, the reason cold and winter are associated with increased viral activity is because people stay inside in closer contact with each other.  Viruses flourish when they are easily spread between multiple hosts.  An individuals slightly decreased immune system should not have that large an effect at spreading disease overall.

 

I agree with this, at least that's what I've been led to believe. 

[WintersGrasp]

Being out in the cold not bundled up DEFINITELY can get you sick easier just like eating dairy while sick will make you sicker. Both said to be myths but I know are not

[Isotherm]

To an extent the cold will cause your immune system to weaken. If you go outside in 30 degree weather for 10-15 minutes, then come back inside, you'll probably be fine. But if you're outside without a jacket for a long period of time (i.e. a couple hours), and begin to shiver, your body temperature is falling and the immune system is working harder to maintain homeostasis. This causes you to be more susceptible to foreign substances attacking your body.

 

Additionally, the dryness of the air is a factor. Dry, heated buildings result in a more rapid spreading of viruses and when the nasal passages/throat are more dry, viruses are better suited to that environment. So in a way, I think limited heating in buildings (reasonably cool temperatures) with humidifiers going is probably the best option. Viruses like warm and dry. Summer building  conditions are generally cool and moist if the A/C is going and there's no dehumidfier..

[PB GFI]

Is this Pre - Med or is this Met ?  The cold is coming . Question is , is it a week or 3 ?

[NEG NAO]

this is kinda sad - this is turning into a flu discussion board since there is basically no storms to discuss for a while now - but I am sure there are plenty of influenza experts here 

[Isotherm]

Is this Pre - Med or is this Met ?  The cold is coming . Question is , is it a week or 3 ?

 

 

Yes.

[Isotherm]

There was some discussion yesterday regarding the potential breakdown of the PNA ridging and a return to the -PDO base state pattern of low heights PAC NW and high heights in the Eastern US.

 

The 06z GFS ensembles maintain higher than normal heights off the West Coast and blocking across the top of the globe, which now keeps the negative H5 height anomalies in the MW/Northeast through 384:

 

Once we get past 120hrs, we're in the blue thereafter through the end of the run:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html#picture

[BxEngine]

this is kinda sad - this is turning into a flu discussion board since there is basically no storms to discuss for a while now - but I am sure there are plenty of influenza experts here

There are other things you can do with your time. Like maybe finding another spot for the needle on that record you broke.

[Isotherm]

The 00z ECMWF ensembles maintain the PNA ridge as well from 168 through 240, with a burgeoning Greenland block.

 

[famartin]

To an extent the cold will cause your immune system to weaken. If you go outside in 30 degree weather for 10-15 minutes, then come back inside, you'll probably be fine. But if you're outside without a jacket for a long period of time (i.e. a couple hours), and begin to shiver, your body temperature is falling and the immune system is working harder to maintain homeostasis. This causes you to be more susceptible to foreign substances attacking your body.

 

Additionally, the dryness of the air is a factor. Dry, heated buildings result in a more rapid spreading of viruses and when the nasal passages/throat are more dry, viruses are better suited to that environment. So in a way, I think limited heating in buildings (reasonably cool temperatures) with humidifiers going is probably the best option. Viruses like warm and dry. Summer building  conditions are generally cool and moist if the A/C is going and there's no dehumidfier..

 

Cold *could* indirectly cause the immune system to weaken because more energy is being diverted from defense and towards keeping the body warm, but that's not the immune system that keeps the body warm.

 

However, your theory about dryness doesn't make sense; otherwise, I'd always be sick out here because the RH much of the summer is down near 10%.

 

The theory about people staying indoors during winter more has more traction.