Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[bluewave]

The 12z Euro ensembles look less transient with PV over Hudson Bay/ SE Canada, than op the Euro. Stronger -NAO keep the PV from lifting out:

 

 

 

The big problem is the heights near the West Coast building westward instead of eastward. The ridging

building south of the Aleutians will drop the PNA and allow the SE Ridge to reemerge January 24-31.

So we should only see a transient cooldown.

[earthlight]

The big problem is the heights near the West Coast building westward instead of eastward. The ridging

building south of the Aleutians will drop the PNA and allow the SE Ridge to reemerge January 24-31.

 

I think that's a temporary problem, if it does occur. There is more support for another ridge out west by the end of January into February. Having the big PV on our side of the globe is a big deal and the models are strongly hinting at blocking to the north of the PV as well.

 

[bluewave]

I think that's a temporary problem, if it does occur. There is more support for another ridge out west by the end of January into February. Having the big PV on our side of the globe is a big deal and the models are strongly hinting at blocking to the north of the PV as well.

 

 

The Euro ens match up pretty well with the GEFS at day 10. So I think that the ridge building

south of the Aleutians will be stronger by the last week of January with the PNA dropping

again and a trough near the West Coast. My guess is that the cool down will be transient 

and temps will return to near to above normal to close out January.

 

 

[MJO812]

Ukmet mjo

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ukme.shtml

 

[Edge Weather]

4 of the 12 GFS ensemble members show a significant storm impacting our area around day 10 and the Euro control model is a near miss, bringing the storm up to North Carolina but then sliding it out to sea south and east of us.

[rcad1]

I hope bluewave isn't right about this cold lasting a week and then we go right back to the same old pattern we've been in.. I would almost rather it just get really warm who wants temps to be just above normal and rain..

[Isotherm]

I hope bluewave isn't right about this cold lasting a week and then we go right back to the same old pattern we've been in.. I would almost rather it just get really warm who wants temps to be just above normal and rain..

 

 

Watch the MJO fcst plots over the coming days. If we can keep this wave amplified and propagating into phase 7/8 there's a better chance of maintaining west based blocking and thus locking the PV over SE Canada.

[RowanBrandon]

I hope bluewave isn't right about this cold lasting a week and then we go right back to the same old pattern we've been in.. I would almost rather it just get really warm who wants temps to be just above normal and rain..

Your shtick is old.

[SnowGoose69]

Watch the MJO fcst plots over the coming days. If we can keep this wave amplified and propagating into phase 7/8 there's a better chance of maintaining west based blocking and thus locking the PV over SE Canada.

 

The MJO is our only shot I think right now, that dies or stays in 6 we'll probably see a 5-10 day period of cold with a shot of a storm then back into a so-so pattern. I do not think we'll enter any sort of real blowtorch but it could be near normal with storms taking bad tracks.

[CooL]

Euro has arctic air in our backyards with a block retrograding west in the long range. 

[CooL]

850's of -20 to -24 into NYC lol

[Weathergun]

We are getting help from both sides the Atlantic and Pacific. The stratosheperic warming gives us favorable -AO/-NAO iand. While the MJO looping around between phase 6 and 7 is gives us the -EPO/+PNA.  It's going to be diffcult for SE ridge to go bonkers again at the end of the month.

[rcad1]

We really need the mjo to get to 7 then loop or stay between 7 and 8. I personally don't know much about it but everything ive heard lately says that if the mjo loops at 6 the pattern will go right back to the way it was and that we need it to atleast get to 7 to have a shot at prolonged cold...

[CooL]

We really need the mjo to get to 7 then loop or stay between 7 and 8. I personally don't know much about it but everything ive heard lately says that if the mjo loops at 6 the pattern will go right back to the way it was and that we need it to atleast get to 7 to have a shot at prolonged cold...

 

Amazing how people go from 1 thing to another. No one even spoke of the MJO in december, it was all about the pacific. Now its all about the MJO. 

[MJO812]

GFS and Euro has a nice pattern for our area with a storm threat from the 20th -25th.

 

PNA on the 0z GFS

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The 00Z ECMWF gets pretty interesting from D8 to D10. The PV goes from Northern Hudson Bay to the Southern Hudson Bay and Positive Heights start building over Southern Greenland.

[Weathergun]

We really need the mjo to get to 7 then loop or stay between 7 and 8. I personally don't know much about it but everything ive heard lately says that if the mjo loops at 6 the pattern will go right back to the way it was and that we need it to atleast get to 7 to have a shot at prolonged cold...

 

The MJO is not the only factor here. We have stratosherpic warming coming in waves, to support the -AO/-NAO and PV in Hudson Bay/SE Canada.

[MJO812]

CPC

 

[Weathergun]

We are seeing big ridge over Central and Eastern US, because MJO has been moving through phases 4 and 5. Which what in happens Janurary, according to the 500mb composities:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/JanuaryPhase4.gif

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/JanuaryPhase5500mbAnomalies.gif

 

However, in phase 6 in January, we start to transition to heigher 500mb heights over the West Coast. So even if the MJO were go back from 7 into phase 6 again, it doesn't support a strong SE ridge to return.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/JanuaryPhase6500mb.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Euro ensembles are cold for the mid and long range.

[MJO812]

6z GFS is really nice .

[bluewave]

We are getting help from both sides the Atlantic and Pacific. The stratosheperic warming gives us favorable -AO/-NAO iand. While the MJO looping around between phase 6 and 7 is gives us the -EPO/+PNA.  It's going to be diffcult for SE ridge to go bonkers again at the end of the month.

 

The SE Ridge won't be as strong as it is going to be this week to end the month. It looks like it will

flatten out some with temps very close to normal here or a few degrees above. But we may

find ourselves on the wrong side of the gradient for the storm track.

[NorEaster27]

The SE Ridge won't be as strong as it is going to be this week to end the month. It looks like it will

flatten out some with temps very close to normal here or a few degrees above. But we may

find ourselves on the wrong side of the gradient for the storm track.

amazing how hard it is to get temps even close to normal

[NEG NAO]

6z GFS is really nice .

I guess you don't like snow anymore - none on that run...............

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr

[MJO812]

Stop looking at the long range. Pattern is changing.

[Allsnow]

I still feel next weeks wave is rain for city-south. Looks to get cold after that. Hopefully we get some chances.

[Zir0b]

not sure why everyone wants cold weather...there's a flu outbreak ongoing, will only make things worse. 

[Sampson]

not sure why everyone wants cold weather...there's a flu outbreak ongoing, will only make things worse.

Are you really "not sure" why some people want cold weather?

[Snow_Miser]

The pattern later being depicted on the 6z GEFS looks very nice with the PV in SE Canada, some higher heights trying to work into Greenland, a solid -AO and ridging in the Pacific. Definitely a "blocky" look for sure.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f180.gif

[tombo82685]

Stop looking at the long range. Pattern is changing.

 

Lol what? Your previous 3 posts before this were about the long range.